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Uh, crypto, here, I think the disconnect, and this is also from Big Ideas, is, "Hey, look at what the gold price has done in the last few years, and look at what's happened to Bitcoin." Uh, now, this is a log chart, so um, you can see gold has had a massive move to the upside. This chart ends in at the end of '25, and of course, I think last night we got down to roughly $60,000 in Bitcoin.
So, really cut in half since its peak in October. What is going on here? Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold? If it's digital gold, why isn't it behaving like gold? Bitcoin just crashed to $60,000. Gold is at all-time highs. Everyone is asking, "Why isn't Bitcoin acting like digital gold?" And now Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, just dropped a bombshell.
She says Bitcoin is not just digital gold, it's three revolutions in one. She's buying the dip with $72 million, and she just revealed exactly where Bitcoin is heading. Let's break it down. Uh, and a couple of points to make here. If you do the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, their returns, uh, since 2019, and and I put this in, my New Year's letter.
You can see the matrix there if you'd like. Um, the correlation has been 0.14. Uh, one is perfect correlation. Uh, and here we are at 0.14, very low. Almost no correlation. Uh, so that is very important to understand. Um, what you can also see here, though, is gold tends to precede a big move in bit in Bitcoin.
You can see the circles there and we'd have a gigantic circle around what has happened recently. Um and and so maybe that will happen again. We actually think it will. I cannot tell you how many bear stories I've heard about Bitcoin in in the last few weeks. Last few months. Um and just go on to X and you'll find all kinds of reasons why you must sell Bitcoin.
And these are the the periods that are kind of interesting. We post our trading at the end of every day and you'll say you'll see that we had been nibbling at our crypto exposed stocks. We didn't know how far this was going to go and maybe it's not over. Not promising that but um there was so much negative sentiment that I I felt okay, you know, we need to leg in and lean into this.
If our research is correct that this this Bitcoin is three revolutions in one. It's a global digital private, very important, rules based, even more important, monetary system. And that's a very big idea. Here's what's confusing everyone. Look at what gold has done in the last few years versus Bitcoin.
Gold had a massive move to the upside. Bitcoin cut in half since it's October peak. Cathy would show this chart from her Big Ideas [clears throat] 2026 report and ask the question everyone is thinking, what is going on here? Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold? But here's what she revealed that changes everything.
She said, if you do the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, their return since 2019, the The has been 0.14. One is perfect correlation and here we are at 0.14. Very low, almost no correlation. They're not the same asset. They don't move together. That's important. But here's the bullish part. Wood said, "Gold tends to precede a big move in Bitcoin.
You can see the circles there and we'd have a gigantic circle around what has happened recently. Gold is leading, Bitcoin follows every single time and right now we have the biggest gold move in history. You do the math." Um the second revolution is it is a technology. It's a a new technology. It's uh it's really adding another layer, I would say, to the internet so that we have um native currencies native to the internet uh that will be able to handle uh agentic commerce uh and uh other other such agentic movements taking place out there.
Uh that's a very big idea. And then uh and it won't be, of course, just Bitcoin. It'll be Ether, importantly Ether. Uh Solana maybe hyper liquid. We shall see. Um but what's interesting about this period is the big three have been identified. Uh and those are Bitcoin, Ether and Solana. You know, the worry historically has been how many of these things are there going to be?
Is this going to be a very fragmented situation? Uh and we're learning uh we we're learning who the big winners are are going to be, who the big winners are. Uh and I think that's a a very important. And then the third revolution is this is a new asset class. Bitcoin is leading the way. It is the most secure of all the crypto uh currencies out there backed by the largest computer network in the world.
Uh and so really an anchor to um an asset allocator looking to move into this new world. And why wouldn't an asset allocator do that? Well, if we're right and well, the it's a fact that at least over the last 5 years, the correlations have been uh the correlation has been as low as as 0.14. Um the key to successful diversification um for asset allocators is um adding new assets with very low correlation to all of the other assets in the ecosystem.
Uh and uh this one qualifies. Uh why do they want that? It is because with that low correlation, introducing it, um risk-adjusted returns go up over time. Uh and so I do think institutions are serious about this new asset class. They may have been reticent uh to move in because they were hearing about the 4-year cycle, the 4-year cycle.
And lo and behold, and uh I'll I'll hats off to Chris Burniske who uh has been uh very right in in calling for whether it's the 4-year cycle or whatever, uh just this downdraft. Um and so it's close to it's closing in on the low point that many uh technical analysts are suggesting um as the place where it should stop.
Uh these the these are very volatile moments uh at at at or near the bottom. Um but uh we usually do look back and say, "Wow, I wish I had caught that low, this V-shaped recovery." Um, well, has been quite significant. Not promising. Uh, uh, I want to make I want to make sure that there are no promises here.
Uh, but it does seem like the stars are aligning. Now, here's where Cathy would drop the real insight. She said Bitcoin is not just digital gold. It's three revolutions happening at the same time. Revolution one, a global digital private rules-based monetary system. She emphasized, "Rules-based is even more important.
This isn't just money, it's a new monetary system competing against fiat currencies worldwide." Revolution two, a technology revolution. She said, "It's really adding another layer to the internet so that we have currencies native to the internet that will be able to handle agentic commerce. AI agents need money that works on the internet.
That's Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana." Revolution three, a new asset class. She said, "Bitcoin is leading the way. It is the most secure of all the cryptocurrencies out there, backed by the largest computer network in the world. The key insight, the correlation with other assets is only 0.14. That means adding Bitcoin to any portfolio increases your risk-adjusted returns.
That's why institutions will have to buy it." Wood revealed something huge about the crypto market. She said, "The big three have been identified and those are Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. No more guessing, the winners are clear." She addressed the concern everyone had. The worry historically has been how many of these things are there going to be?
Is this going to be a very fragmented situation? Her answer, "We're learning who the big winners are going to be and I think that's very important." And she's putting her money where her mouth is. Ark just bought $72 million in crypto stocks during this crash. Robinhood, Coinbase, Circle, Bullish, their own Bitcoin ETF.
While everyone else is panicking, Cathy Wood is loading up. Uh, and um, I guess I'll move on to the next one. So, what has been the biggest bugaboo in as it relates to Bitcoin or the worry that we've heard about more than anything else in the last few weeks because it's all about quantum computing. The last few weeks have been uh you know, lots of stories about quantum computing and I would say uh the the large shift in Bitcoin uh the OGs selling uh or just shifting wallets to more quantum resistant wallets.
Um so I think that's really uh caused a lot of concern. And uh here's Michael Saylor's uh answer or I mean, he was very reasonable last night in his discussion around quantum. He doesn't think it's going to be an issue for 10 years or more. Uh but he said, "Here's what we're doing uh in terms of our commitment to Bitcoin security." Um and and so you can see some of those um those moves now.
Now let's address the elephant in the room, quantum computing. Wood said, "What has been the biggest bugaboo? It's all about quantum computing. The last few weeks have been lots of stories about quantum computing and the large shifts in Bitcoin, the OGs selling or just shifting wallets to more quantum resistant wallets.
But here's Michael Saylor's answer that Wood shared. He doesn't think it's going to be an issue for 10 years or more. Quantum is being used as an excuse to sell. It's not the real reason. And here's the bottom line. Wood said, "I cannot tell you how many bear stories I've heard about Bitcoin in the last few weeks.
Just go on to X and you'll find all kinds of reasons why you must sell Bitcoin. And these are the periods that are kind of interesting." She revealed Arc has been nibbling at crypto exposed stocks because negative sentiment is so high. Her prediction. In her Big Ideas 2026 report, Arc projects the crypto market will grow at 61% annually to reach $28 trillion by 2030.
Bitcoin alone could hit $1 million per coin, and she believes we're at or near the bottom of this cycle. So, here's what you need to know. Bitcoin crashed to $60,000. Gold is at all-time highs. Everyone is screaming sell, but Cathie Wood says this is three revolutions in one. Gold leads Bitcoin, and right now we have the biggest gold circle in history.
The big three winners are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Quantum is just an excuse, and Arc just bought $72 million while everyone else panicked. The question is, will you be positioned when this reverses? . Are you buying or selling? I'll see you in the next one.
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