저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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우버는 2025년 1분기 실적(총예약액 21%↑, 월간 활성 고객 14%↑)이 호조였음에도 7.5% 급락했으나, 과도한 반응으로 보고 방어했고 이후 반등. 자율주행 시대에도 우버가 운영 효율·경험에서 유리한 위치라고 주장. 시장의 로보택시 우려는 진정되는 중. 다만 우버 상승은 광범위 테마가 아닌 개별 성공 사례로 평가하며 추가 상승 여지는 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Right now, uncertainty reigns in this market. We had another rough day near the end of a rough month and a rough first quarter. But throughout this difficult period for so many formerly beloved stocks, plenty of bands have actually managed to rally. As I said at the top of the show, they're what works in this new environment, which is why I've been spending all week highlighting the best performers in the S&P 500 year to date.
And now I've got another one for you. Uber Technologies up more than 24% for the year, making it the fifth best performer in the S&P. About a month and a half ago, I stuck my neck out and defended Uber after reported a widely panned quarter. Stock fell 7.5% in a single session. That seemed wrong to me.
Turned out to be a very good call. Uh it's rallied quick 10 bucks since. Now, what made me confident enough to risk my neck on Uber? Well, in management's own words, it was their quote strongest quarter ever. End quote. Cleveland record tips, gross bookings, and adjusted EBO. Gross bookings were particularly impressive, up 21% year-over-year.
I couldn't believe why the stock was going down. Monthly active platform customers were up 14%. Total trips are up 18%. The ride share business is booming. While Uber's freight segment, that is their smallest, by the way, did have a gross bookings miss. The company's two main businesses, mobility, meaning ride sharing, and delivery, meaning Uber Eats, both beat expectations for gross bookings.
Even though there was some nitpicking on the guidance for the current quarter, I said that that it wasn't enough to justify the stock's vicious 7.5% sell off. Sure enough, over the next three days, Uber immediately shot up nearly 22%. Clearly, someone got it wrong when they were selling. The stocks fared pretty well since then, too.
Uh, so is there anything else that's been keeping shares afloat besides the market acknowledging it judged the last quarter wrongly, harshly? Only activist investor Bill Aman had a part in this rally. the uh let's see, the stock bounced back so quickly after the postquarter selloff in large part because Aman disclosed that his hedge fund had taken a $2.3 billion dollar stake in Uber.
That was interesting to hear. He certainly come a long way from when he mistakenly accused the company of stealing tips from cab drivers and overstating his profits last spring. Hey, I mean can't beat him. Uber stock has also been voided by a complicated history with robo taxis and of course with Elon Musk.
Interestingly, the stock set an all-time high at the time back on October 11th. Do that just one day after Tesla's much anticipated Cyber Cab event. While the Tesla event was initially seen as underwhelming, which is what initially pushed Uber higher, the stock immediately reversed course afterward, then started moving lower.
The results of the November election only reinforced the belief in Elon Musk's ability to make these seemingly far-fetched cyber cab and robo taxi dreams a reality. In his defense, it wouldn't be the first time he's delivered on some fluffy promises. How do you even catch a rocket anyway? Hard to blame anyone who was enthusiastic either.
One of the largest backers of the Trump campaign. Everybody figured that Musk would get favorable treatment from the new administration. Turns out that was understating. Of course, since Tesla hit its all-time high of $488 and change in mid December. Well, things have changed. Tesla Musk have fallen out of favor on Wall Street, putting some cold water on the company's grand autonomous driving ambitions.
But that's been good news for Uber because it means people aren't as worried about the spread of robo taxis. Of course, I think the whole line of argument is absurd. Self-driving cars should have no effect on Uber. These guys have already devastated the cab companies. Even if Tesla or anybody else starts selling self-driving taxis, they'll need to make their peace with the ride sharing apps if they want to do business.
In fact, as management sees it, Uber's uniquely positioned to capture the $1 trillion plus autonomous driving opportunity here in the US. At the end of the day, it'll take years to start seeing these things in mass production. And even when they get there, self-driving cabs face so many major challenges, especially cost.
All the tech in these vehicles makes them very expensive. Once they get sold, the owners of these self-driving cars need to get a return on their investment. Sure, someone like Tesla could try to operate a fixed fleet of robo taxis like the old cab companies, but as Uber's management said in its latest prepared remarks, quote, "In a typical large city, a fixed fleet designed to meet the weekly peak peak will have uh up to 95% of vehicles idle during the multiple weekly troughs." End quote.
They go on, quote, conversely, a fleet size below peak cannot deliver the reliable 4-minute ETAs that consumers expect. End quote. Now, this gets even more complicated when you consider fleet sizes need to change pretty dramatically throughout the year. You won't get a great return on that $200,000 car if it's sitting idly 95% of the time.
So, how the heck can future autonomous vehicle owners make money? Simple. They partner with Uber. According to Uber, at quote, "An average you utilize AV can run as much as 100,000 miles a year compared to a typical consumer vehicle at 10 to 15,000 miles a year." End quote. That's extended drive time.
drive team means these self-driving cars need all sorts of extra servicing, multiple charges per day, and extra cleaning. Luckily, Uber has 15 years of experience with 12 billion annualized trips to help autonomous vehicle owners manage all of these things. That's not even considering the things you don't think about like fair disputes, lost item returns, uh stranded vehicle rescue, and insurance claim resolution.
It cost Uber a lot of money to develop this expertise, but the autonomous driving companies that partnered with him got get, and I'm going to quote this here, to plug into the cost structure instantly. End quote. They go on to say in the prepared remarks that, quote, put simply, we are the only player with the scale and expertise to run AV operations at the highest efficiency, period.
End quote. Pretty emphatic, and it seems like the market has been gradually warming up to this reality as the fears surrounding the threat of robo taxis have cooled. While all the focus is on the future of autonomous driving, it's easy to forget that Uber has a lot of other innovation going on that's finding success with this includes Uber for teens, which was up an astounding 50% sequentially in the fourth quarter.
Uber X share has exceeded 2 billion in annualized gross bookings in less than three years. Management also noted its Uber shuttle scaling nicely in New York, including more routes to uh LaGuardia, which is, by the way, a nightmare to reach using public transportation. In fact, just today they that's they're launching a new they they just launched a new shuttle to JFK.
But here's the bottom line. Uber is another example what's working in 2025. Though it's more of a one-off success story than a participant in the broader theme like the others I've mentioned. Still, I'm glad I defended this one after last quarter. And I don't think it's done going higher. Why don't we speak to Bob in Arizona, please?
Bob. Hi Jim. Bob, first time caller from Prescott Valley, Arizona, home of America's oldest rodeo. I did not know that and I'm glad you're calling in. How can I help? Well, I'm asking for your thoughts on the merger between Paramont and Sky Dance. Well, you're done there. You just went, you know, just ring the register.
You're done. There's not going to be any more upside to speak of. Let's move on and find something with a little more growth. Now, let's go to Robert in New York. Robert, Jim, we're going to find a stock right now that has a lot more growth in my opinion because years ago, you said to buy this baby and just watch it go.
And you were right again as usual. But the next com this company has a market cap of around 130 billion. They're the leading global provider of financial technology and payment solutions. They have very secure and innovative payment processing, electronic billing, digital, and e-commerce solution. Jim, they keep buying back the stock.
They have a ton of cash. The stock has soared over 59% this past year and 12% year to date. Jimbo, you made us money on this one, baby. And this is a monster. It keeps going up up even when the market goes down. Buy serve. All right. All right. Well, I liked it because Frank Bizano was the CEO and I understand he's but I believe he you know he's he's going to social security.
Uh but I will tell you this. I think he's got a good team. It's also 21 times earnings. It's a very very good company and I'm I I'm boy I'm so glad I recommended it but it wasn't really mine. I knew the CEO was and I think he's terrific and that's exactly how we made the money on that one. Anyway, Uber success this year is more of a one-off story rather than a broader theme at play.
But I don't think it's done going higher. Much more man, including my look at a coal company that you put on my radar. And after yesterday's news that 25% auto uh tariffs are on the horizon, I'm telling you where I stand on trade in the Oval Office announcement and oil cost.
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