At best we'll get one Fed cut this year, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

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01. Mohamed El-Erian is Allianz's chief economic advisor, joins us now. It's good to see you again. Thanks for having me, Scott. I'd love to get your current view of these markets. So, the good news is we got some pretty nasty technicals behind us. Um the markets came into this year, as you know, betting on two things.

02. One is continued US exceptionalism, and two, the good things, as as you put it, would happen at the same time as the less good. And those two bets were undermined and caught quite a few people overexposed to the US markets. So, you've seen quite a deleveraging among fast money, and you've also seen a shift of institutional to Europe.

03. I think most of the deleveraging is behind us. The shift to Europe isn't quite behind us, but the technicals certainly are not as bad as they were a few weeks ago. So, I mean, do you think this US exceptionalism theme is is still a thing? Because I can't tell you the number of people who come on the network, certainly my programs, and talk about better value in Europe.

04. You're going to get way better returns over there. You're probably going to get a little less risk, as well. How do you see that? So, I don't quite buy that, because people have bought into announcements in Germany. Implementation is a completely different kettle of fish. So, to go from announcement to implementation is quite hard.

05. I also think that the inherent strength of the US economy and the US markets are still there. There's this massive cloud of uncertainty over them right now. But, if and when that cloud clears, people will focus back on the inherent strengths. What was your takeaway from the Fed meeting last week? We still have two cuts on the table.

06. You take the growth forecast down, you raise the inflation forecast a bit, and for now, it appears that the Fed chair is going to look through any inflation caused by by tariffs. They they even brought out the transitory word again. They did. So, we had two different interpretations. If you focus only on the statement, the forecast, and the interest rate guidance, this is a wait-and-see Fed that is taking seriously the soft data.

07. And it is the soft data that has been worse. If you listen to Chair Powell, this is someone who doesn't take the soft data as seriously as the rest of the Fed. And this is someone who's willing to dismiss the tariff effects on inflation as transitory. You know, it's up to you which one you focus on.

08. I think you should focus on the first one. I think the market still believes that we're going to get more cuts than we will. I think at best, we will get one cut, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get no cuts this year, Scott, unless we go into recession. But, that's a completely different ballgame.

09. I mean, one versus two, I could see some, you know, some wiggle room uh there. In terms of the soft data, I wonder what you do think about that, that, you know, a number of the surveys, consumer especially related surveys, have been weak. Which the Fed chair really dismissed, and I think that's what you're alluding to.

10. It's like, I'm I'm not going to pay so much attention to a survey that says, "I feel bad about the economy." Until I actually see it show up in the hard data, where people are, in fact, spending less, it's not something to clearly worry about. Are they too dismissive of the so-called soft data? They are, Scott.

11. When people say, "I see it in the soft data, but I don't see it in the hard data." Well, there's a lag. There's normally a lag of 3 to 6 months. You know, you may be continuing to invest, you may be continuing to buy, but if you get more and more worried, the soft data is going to flash yellow, and the hard data will pick that up in a few months.

12. Same with the price data. So, if you look at surveys of inflation, again today, we had another one. They are all consistently pointing to inflation going up. So, I think the Fed should take it more seriously. The trouble is, it puts their two mandates into competition. Do they fight the fear of high unemployment, or do they fight the fear of high inflation?