Jeffrey Gundlach: The chance of recession is higher than 50%

요약 보기

Gundlach는 관세 정책 불확실성과 정부지출 축소(DOGE)로 성장이 둔화되며 경기침체 확률이 50% 이상(50~60%)이라고 봄. 10년물 금리는 3.6%까지 내려갔다가 4.25% 부근으로 복귀했고 장기채 랠리는 이미 지나갔다고 판단. 스태그플레이션은 'small s' 수준으로 0이 아닌 위험이며 관세가 인플레이션을 자극, 2027년 2% 복귀는 희망적 사고라고 주장. 연준 금리인하와 관세가 겹쳐 인플레이션이 2%에 안착하기 어렵다고 봄.

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01. there is such a degree of uncertainty that it it's hard to have definitive moves in the market because you just don't know what tariff policy is going to be. You don't know to what degree the economy is going to continue to weaken as well. And I want to ask you about that on the chance of a recession.

02. The chair said, "Well, there's always a one in4 chance." Quote, "It's moved up, but it's not high." You've had the Treasury Secretary on this very network talk about a detox that is needed. Um, you have had an administration that really has not gone out of its way to talk people off of the idea of a recession.

03. I think in some cases you can make the argument that they have almost telegraphed that you could have one and if you do will be better in the long run anyway. Your thoughts on all that? Well, the change in government spending I hope is going to be to less government spending. Certainly that which is the purported idea of this Doge situation and lower government spending is going to lower the pace of economic growth.

04. I mean we've been living on you know $2.2 trillion is the actual budget deficit for the last 12 months. 2.2 trillion. And if you're going to get that down to any sort of sensible number, it's going to knock a lot a lot out of out of GDP. The one thing I think that is really bizarre is people that say that the that we're going to get uh growth up to like 3% real or something like this or even 4% 5% nominal and at the same time we're going to balance the budget deficit.

05. I I balancing the budget deficit is not going to help inc inc increase growth. It's that's what the detox is all about. You you've got a problem. You you know you have a problem. You've got to start solving the problem. And I've been in favor of this for a long time. I think cutting a hundred it's it's kind of uh disheartening that cutting 100 lousy billion dollars out of the potentially out of the government budget is is being u met with hysteria as if that that's even a drop in the bucket.

06. I mean it's it's nothing. So we need to cut a lot more than that if we're going to get to a to to a true detox. So I I don't know if that can happen because I think I think the cutting will weaken economic growth which may lead to a a counter response. It's it's one of the problems when you get yourself in one of these vicious circles that we've got ourselves in.

07. But I do think the the chance of recession is higher than most people believe. I I I actually think it's higher than 50% um coming in in you know in the next few quarters. Wow. I I higher than higher than 50 higher than 50%. For a recession. Yeah. I think it's 50 to 60 is where is where I am. Yeah. And I think and I don't think you're going to get a a rally out of the long in the Treasury bond market.

08. I think that that already happened. We had that Pavlovian response and you know, we had the 10-year down to 360 and we're we're we're now we're back up about four and a quarter and I'm not sure we're going to go below four again. uh in in spite of the fact the economy may weaken, h how much of a risk is stagflation?

09. I read, you know, one person's comment today within one news article saying that we we already have a quote whiff of it. Uh but it's with a small S, not a not a large S. Is it a real risk? I think it is. It's certainly nonzero. I mean, the tariffs could very well be inflationary and the inflation rate is going higher anyway because the base effects of what's rolling off from last year.

10. And so I I think the they just downgraded GDP. So, uh, we're getting closer to recession and we're they just upgraded the inflation forecast, although just for this year. I do think it's kind of wishful thinking to think that somehow magically it's going to go back down to 2% in 2027, but they're they're they're um I I think that that forecast is mostly hope that that's going to happen.

11. I don't we don't see I mean with the Fed saying they're going to cut interest rates and tariffs coming on, I have a hard time seeing how the inflation rate is going to settle in at 2%.