저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 중국 헝다 사태는 시스템 리스크가 아닌 시장 리스크이며, 하락 시 에어비앤비·우버·도어대시 같은 생존 입증 기업을 쇼핑리스트로 매수할 기회라는 주장. 시장 리스크와 시스템 리스크 구분: 시스템 리스크는 수익을 낼 수 없는 악재로 매수 이유가 거의 없지만, 시장 리스크는 하락 시 좋은 종목을 싸게 살 수 있는 기회라고 설명. 당일 시장: 다우 약 51포인트 하락 등 등락이 있었고, 연준 회의와 부채한도 문제가 단기 리스크로 언급됨. 중국 헝다: 약 3000억 달러 부채를 감당하지 못해 붕괴 직전이며, 은행과 글로벌 금융시스템으로 번질 우려가 있다고 시장이 우려한다고 설명. 그러나 공산당 정부가 피해 범위를 통제할 수 있어 전이는 중국 내부에 머물 것이라고 전망. 다만 헝다 사태는 미국 주식에 나쁜 뉴스이며 추가 고통이 예상된다고 언급. 쇼핑리스트 전략: 중국 노출이 많은 구형 기업은 피하고, 이번 팬데믹을 견뎌낸 기업을 선호. 어도비는 실적이 좋았음에도 하락했으며, 최근 IPO 종목 대부분은 실패작이라고 평가. 업스타트는 선호하지만 특정 종목은 싫어한다고 언급. 에어비앤비: 팬데믹 충격 후 반등했고 누적 고객 10억 명을 기록했으며 플랫폼 개선이 지속된다고 평가. 골드만삭스의 매도 의견은 이해하지 못한다고 비판. 우버: 라이드셰어링에서 배달(우버이츠)로 확장했고, 드리즐리 인수로 주류 배달 시장을 열었으며 가이던스를 상향. 수익성이 드디어 나온다고 평가. 도어대시: 팬데믹 이후에도 배달 수요가 유지되며 교외 시장까지 확장. 우버와 양강 구도 형성. 식당 지원 정책도 긍정 평가. 규제 리스크: 캘리포니아 등에서 긱 워커 규제가 있지만 인기 서비스라 규제로 완전히 사라질 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 결론적으로 에어비앤비, 우버, 도어대시는 위기를 극복하고 재창조한 기업이므로 두려워하지 말고 매수할 수 있는 기업이라고 강조.
다듬은 글
i'll be able to me ere's systemic risk and then there's market risk these are two very different things systemic risk is just plain old bad news that you cannot profit from even if you're bullish and when you're facing systemic risk there's very little reason to buy anything you just have to take your lumps or get out of dodge if you can't handle the pain the house of pain but market risk market risk the opposite it's a godsend if you know what you like because it can create miraculous buying opportunities on the way down you may find it odd for me to hit a bull button on us on what is really market risk but that's what we wait for here in craymark you see after day that started strong and then wayne with the dow dipping 51 points has to be dropping 0.08 percent and then as that climbing 0.22 percent we need to figure out what about this movement is market risk and what's this democrats so you can do this at home now we know we have several market risks right i mean they'll be at the fed tomorrow i mean who knows what's going to happen there who knows what's going on with this debt ceiling practice it's feeling a lot like the one that put us through the meat grinder 10 years ago before the whole thing was resolved but then there's china and this is where i differ from most of the people you hear this is widely regarded as a systemic risk that you can't be bullish about something that could create a contagion that reverberates throughout the whole world china's the second oh you know china's second largest real estate developer is this company called evergrand and it is on the verge of collapse because it has 300 billion dollars in obligations that it can't pop it can't meet wall street's worried that evergreen grant will crush the banks that lent it money and from there the pain will spread throughout the global financial system now countless commentators have described this situation as the chinese lehman brothers which means it can take down almost everything and i i say even though i expect it to fail that's not the case i also believe that the contagion will be kept within china's borders remember the piercy has a command economy in free market clothing when they have an enterprise that's too big to fail well the communist party can determine how bad things really will be they have the power to decide who will feel the pain and who will come out unscathed right now it's looking like their government rather let some of the worst scofflaws get away with the financial equivalent of murder then allow this whole edifice to collapse and president xi has made a mistake here but it's not the end of the world see in the end the ever grand fiasco is well it's bad news for american stocks but i think it's market risk rather than systemic risk again market risk systemic risk and i've got to tell you despite what virtually everyone else is saying i think it's an opportunity but i expect more pain as it shakes out just because i think it's an opportunity it doesn't mean i'm saying it's an opportunity right now now i'm always telling you to have a shopping list ready for these moments when the whole market looks like it's going to get hammered at the moment you should focus on companies that have gone through the coveted bill and come out on the other side unfortunately so many of the older companies that have seen their stocks were even as their businesses might slow down be slowing here they got too much exposure to china and china is going to have a slowdown because of evergrand you need something that can thrive even in a weaker economy now some people could say that could be like adobe the digital media marketing colossus that just reported what i thought was an excellent quarter it was a clear beat raise with only a bit of hair on it yet the stock got hit anyway which by the way has been a consistent pattern before every single run to the upside adobe comes down the decline lasts two days and then you buy it more on that later how about the newly minted companies that have come public recently well we've had so many ipos the last year that's impossible to keep track of them all i try i got lists and lists i got a list of stack deals too almost every one of them is a loser the insiders in these stocks the new guys are bailing out left and right i don't have any of them to say that i don't know maybe uh upstart i like upstart but it's most uses i really can't stand but then there are a handful of newer names that i absolutely love that many people seem to hate yet they actually might be ideal for this moment they all have similar characteristics they are now seasoned businesses with amazing ceos that have run the cov gauntlet and come out on the other side in a positive fashion i'm going to start with one we've been talking about a lot lately and it's airbnb the company was on fire going in the pandemic then it hit a wall the likes of which few businesses have ever bounced back from they went from gigantic revenues to almost none so did ceo brian chesky give up and fold up shop no he did he did make big layoffs but he stayed in the game long enough to realize that renting a house from an airbnb host was often cheaper more convenient and safer than staying at a hotel turns out airbnb is the best way to take a vacation in the midst of a pandemic no crowded elevators no service no restaurants all that stuff is closed anyway now airbnb just announced on our show last night that it just logged its billionth customer and it keeps improving its platform making major improvements in its app endlessly when my daughter who taught english madrid got stuck in lockdown that city for her entire stay airbnb let her visit a different part of town and stay in a nicer house each weekend now this these guys airbnb are basically the only game in town they pretty much have this whole market to themselves then there's uber now this was merely a ride sharing company when it got started but then it got into the delivery business with ubereats company consolidated the industry then doubled down on delivery acquiring an outfit called drizzly that delivers liquor straight to your door that drizzly deal has opened up many new markets for them that most of us never even thought existed it's a two-way street now with uber that's how they're now able to raise guidance significantly and why you see underneath me the stock continuing to climb and it'll probably have a slew of recommendations and upgrades tomorrow when ceo dara custer charity came on squawk box this morning excellent interview with andrew roy sorkin he talked about how profitability is finally here i cheered i cheered because this is a great company next how about doordash this is another delivery service the wrap on doordash was that it would be great as long as the pandemic lasted but once we be covered people would start going out again making the platform a lot less essential if not needed at all of course the pandemic stuck around for a long time but even when the covet situation was looking better a few months ago doordash never went away turns out people like getting online deriving delivery whether it's food or liquor yep doordash does that too and by the way what they like is they get the food but they don't have to pay for the liquor which is always higher price just as important when things get tough for the restaurant industry last year doordash's ceo tony shu didn't say sorry we got to make our quarter pay up instead he offered a tiered system giving breaks to struggling restaurants in the meantime doordash helped consolidate the industry went big in the suburbs not just the cities not long ago it's a very crowded space but now it's a two-man game between uber and door dash grub hub on the periphery hey speaking of someone with a couple of restaurants i don't know what we do without shu and his company he made himself indispensable now you could argue that all these gig economy businesses could be regulated out of existence if the government ever gets involved we know california is already making life difficult for the ubers and door dashes of the world forcing them to give their drivers the same benefits they extend regular employees the thing is these are all incredibly popular that's why i'm highlighting they're amazingly popular services so i doubt the state or the federal government will regulate them into oblivion who wants to run for office as the guy who killed uber or airbnb or doordash it's just not what you want to do here's the bottom line i like the services that are airbnb and uber and doordash because these companies didn't just sit there and take a beating they got up off the floor at their darkest hour and reinvented themselves the pessimists for instance like goldman sachs which started covers on airbnb last week with a cell rating they just don't get it you either go with brian or go with tony or you go with dara or you just go home these aren't pre-pandemic stocks and they aren't post pandemic stocks they are great companies with dexterous leaders that you should not be afraid to buy into and what many think is a perilous systemic risk moment even as i don't see it that way
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