Fed should 'tee up' rate cuts next meeting, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

요약 보기

2분기 성장률이 3~3.5% 기대에 못 미쳐 약 2% 수준으로 둔화됐다고 진단. 근원 PCE·CPI가 2% 목표 아래로 내려가며 하반기 인플레 둔화 기대. 7월 FOMC에서 금리인하를 준비하고 8월 잭슨홀, 9월 실행을 제안. 연준 금리선물상 1~1.5회 인하가 이미 반영됐으나 더 많이 인하될 수 있다고 봄. S&P500은 2022년 저점 대비 약 50% 상승, 4년간 연 18% 수준. 포워드 PE는 약 21배이나 기술주 제외 시 17배, 중소형주 13~14배로 기술주 쏠림 구조. 기술주 실적 모멘텀이 유지되는 한 과열로 보지 않으며 2000년 같은 상황은 아니라고 평가.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. us this afternoon is Jeremy Siege and Chief Economist at WisdomTree. Professor, it's nice to see you. Pretty good achievements for the middle of the year. We hear some people say: why not slow down? What do you think? Well, I think the momentum is still there . By the way , we're talking about what happened last night.

02. During that hour and a half, S&P futures were trading, and they were up 10 points. So the question, at least for now, is: Does the stock market love Trump more than Biden? I think that this "vote" was at least cast there. Of course, when the policy is finally implemented, the situation could change very, very significantly.

03. And secondly, you know, if Trump decides to leave, there will be a new possible Democratic nominee . Remember, the first polls were interesting. Almost anyone but Trump on the Republican side easily beat Biden, and anyone but Biden on the Democratic side easily beat Trump. So it was quite an interesting juxtaposition of these two men.

04. So, yes, politics is important , but in terms of the economy, I would say the latest data was weak—not exactly weak, you shouldn't be afraid of a recession, but we were expecting 3%, many were predicting 3.5% for the second quarter. I would say we are barely at 2% right now, judging by the current data.

05. And given the good PCE data and what I think will be very good inflation readings in the second half of the year, I really think the Fed should prepare a rate cut at the July 31 meeting , confirm it at Jackson Hole in August, and deliver it in September. Do you think the market has already taken this into account?

06. I think the fact that yields are falling and the stock market is rising indicates that these probabilities have already been factored in. Actually, my feeling is, I would say...what? One, maybe one and a half rate cuts are already built into the price. If you look at the Fed rate futures for January, I actually think there will be more.

07. Because, in my opinion, the economy may weaken a little , and inflation indicators will become better. Both of these factors will contribute to lower rates. An economic slowdown is not what the stock market is expecting, but lower inflation, as well as expected lower rates and rents, are definitely positive factors.

08. We at Wisdom Tree maintain our own index of current rents and house prices, and our core CPI and core HICP are currently below our target of 2% year-on-year . So, as many economists have noted , even Powell and Janet Yellen were waiting for these lower rents to finally show up in the numbers. It looks like we will see the desired decline in inflation in the second half of this year.

09. Professor Siegel, to expand on the topic a little, the S&P is now up about 50% from its 2022 low, after that bear market we went through back then . It turns out that over the last 4 years or so, we have received about 18% annualized returns . It seems that the market has already factored a lot into the prices.

10. Although, of course, if we count from the peak of 2022, we are not that overheated. I wonder what stage of the life cycle this bull market is in? It 's hard to say, because it's almost like trying to guess when it will end. Listen, but the forward P/E ratios... They're around 21. But with strong earnings momentum.

11. As is often said, we are witnessing a market split. If you exclude the technology sector , this figure is closer to 17. If you look at small and mid- cap companies, there are figures around 13-14 . The technology sector, as I've said , is generating profits for its investors, and this momentum has been maintained for 3-4 months, which I constantly emphasize.

12. So I don't see any signs that this will stop. But, you know, without taking into account the tech sector, there is no overvaluation, and the tech companies themselves are not overvalued if they continue to show the same results as before. Thank God, we are not in a situation like the year 2000 at all.

13. The question is , are we in 1997-98 ? Nobody really knows this. You know, that's how it all started back then. Can mania occur? This is always possible in the markets , but we have definitely not reached that point yet.