저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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소비 둔화 속에서도 살아남을 필수소비(펫 관련) 테마를 재부각. 펫 이커머스·수의 헬스케어·펫푸드 종목을 제시하며 과거 급락 후 반등 및 실적 개선을 근거로 제시. 친구 방송에서 코스트코 눌림은 매수 기회로 언급.
다듬은 글
as some of the Market's hottest groups take a well-deserved breather and we find ourselves with worst signs of a weakening economy this might be a good time to own some slowdown stocks stocks of companies that will do just fine even if we descend to very low growth as the FED battles inflation to the Finish Line notice I didn't say recession because that's what people who scare you into making the wrong mes will do I'm not trying to do that I'm explaining where we are right now with the Zeitgeist is and that's why tonight I want to Circle back to an old money favorite theme that we had put onto the shelf for a while frankly and that's the humanization of pets for years people seem to spend ever more money on their cats and dogs something that went into overdrive during the pandemic uh but you know what's the pandemic subsided in the postco era pet adoptions have slowed dramatically and elevated pet food prices seem to be one of the first items that got inflation related push back now though I think the postco drought is over and I like the group again so if let's say if you agree with me or you have pets you want to try to profit off for the thesis I'm going to give you one retail play one Veterinary play and one pet food play that I think work right here right now first up is chewy yes the online store for pet food pet toys pet Healthcare products you name it the stock called fire here and it makes me think that the pet food thesis is back after roaring during the pandemic chewy pee at $120 in early 2021 and then it's growth rate rank dramatically and the stock got obliterated plunging to $14 and change at its lows just 2 months ago 2 months ago that's an 88% to clim from Peak to 12 they usually don't go that much lower unless they're insolvent and this one isn't since then it's on the Move rebounding just $130 including a monster move today is the e-commerce cohort came Roar back I didn't see it coming I wanted to do this wish I had done this piece yesterday I'm very sorry at this point despite this rally I think the Stock's still interesting though this one first came back on my radar when I spoke to Sumit Singh he's the CEO was in December alongside Chewy's first ever investor day and it went well obviously the stock wasn't done going down at that point but I came away feeling impressed by how much the company had matured sing pointed out that they get well over 70% of their sales from Dependable recurring auto ship subscription plans I happen to love the subscription business because it's renewable it doesn't just fall off a cliff in other words chewy is a lot more reliable than you might expect I told you at that time I thought sing sounded strong and confident and if you could buy it around 20 bucks you could do well sure enough when the company reported late last month it delivered a monster earning speat with a 55% growth year-over-year even if its sales were only up 33.1% when the conference call management talked about green shoots and new pet ownership for the first time since 2022 and a less promotional environment which helped boost profit ability in response the stock jumped 27% the next day even though much of that was short covering chewy kept running and running and running as I said it's just close right below 30 for me this quarter was indeed a game changer because the earnings are so good you can make a legitimate case for chewy value valuation even up here right now see the Stock's selling for almost 34 times this year's earnings estimat which sounds expensive but listen to it they turn in a couple more earnings beats like the one they just did those estimates will turn out to be way too low but even if the estimates are right wall Street's looking for 29% earnings growth from chewy this year and it's F four times earnings it's perfectly reasonable to pay this price for this growth rate next there's Alano oh man this is one tempt and fate when you talk about this one this is an animal health company that was spun out of Eli ly roughly six years ago l looks like it made the right move we saw what the rest of Lily did Alano makes treatments for both companion animals and livestock just like chewy the stock peaked in 20121 and spent the next couple of years going through the meat grinder it fell 79% from Peak to trough before finally def finding its floor last summer although it was that kind of Flor since then alanos more than doubled from those lows when we spoke to CEO Jeff Simmons earlier this year he was really optimistic he explained that they've got six potential Blockbuster Veterinary treatments in the pipeline that are to come out in the next two years that includes a monal antibody drug for par parv virus sorry I don't know how to pronounce that by fortun dogs don't have it it's usually lethal if left untreated I don't want my dogs to get it he's also got a pill for cats with diabetes big Improvement by the way over the previous standard carrier which is two insulin shots a day I used to have six cats at one time and try to strick a syringe into a cat I can tell you you're taking your life into your hands now just after we last had Simmons on the show Alano was targeted by a sharp activist investor and Cor holding one of a major shake up including new Co management timly made a deal with Simmons keeping his job by Inc corating two board seats I like that situation you look at it helpful hopefully helpful smart activist in there feet to the fire and hey Alano's reported excellent numbers in early may this was a clean beaten raise quarter no real hair on it sending the stock up nearly 25% and a single session it's continued to turn higher since it should but even after this move Alan only trades it 19 times early he not expensive by any stretch of the imagination plus the good news keep rolling in here get this I love this one the company uh got FDA approval for the a type of cattle feed that basically makes Cals less flatulent huge I'm he come on stop joking listen it's actually huge for the environment because cows release so much methane something at some urgency under the current president will no doubt some agency will no doubt say Hey listen we got to make every cow take this not that they would know the difference it's so stupid but no I don't I didn't mean that I I I happen to own two cows and they're just they're dumb as plywood though Alano will want all right they're not that bright let's leave it at that I want I feel bad for them now Lan they don't watch alanka will launch next quarter and I think it's a potential Blockbuster I'm telling you my cow is going to take that methane pill immediately so if you haven't been keeping up with this one it's worth another look finally there's JM smucker which does not have a methane pill it's primarily known as a packaged food plot with way too much snack exposure after last year's ill time Hostess acquisition stock got crushed last fall and has really recovered especially because everyone's so worried about the gop-1 weight loss drugs in fact sparker was making new lows this Rec a month ago however this company's also got a major Pet Food business one that been intentionally rationalizing recently selling a bunch of non-core Brands to post for $1.2 billion last year good riddens as a result smoker left with a much smaller pet food division that's all about bigname Brands Milk Bone paperoni I once ate a pepperoni on the set in the Show's first year and I got sick and sick and we had to stop doing the show for half hours I threw up and now I'm back Meow Mix too and this streamline pet food operation feels like a much better business in Smoker's most recent quarter their pet food sales grew by 11% when you back out the impact of the brands they sold to post meanwhile their pet food profit margin of sort so if you want a pet food play Maybe hold your nose and buy smucker do not eat the paperoni betting you can offset the expected weed distance snacks I wish should give you a p play play here uh but fresh pets had insane rally that's way too high every other major pet food brand belongs to another one of these big packaged food companies a conglomerate General Mills Colgate Nestle I'm going with smucker because of the distinctive shrink to grow more profitly lucrative narrative in Pet Food Plus I think this is a good moment to on a defensive consumer package Goods name because the Market's gotten a little more difficult smokers currently coming off a solid quarter even as the stock remains near its 52e low by the way while everybody's so worried about the snack division smokers slim down Pet Food business just did 452 Bill million 452 million in sales hey that sweet baked snack they only did 337 million those pet food margins are substantially higher too should be more of a needle mover going forward here's the bottom line in a tougher Market we need secular trends that can Triumph in any economy which is why I am circling indeed back for after absence for a long time to the pet trade chewy and laco or already on fire but if you want a less a direct pet food play I'm feeling darn right optimistic about JM smucker and again stay away from the methane pills unless you're a cow let's go to regge rege in and Georgia regge hey Jim great to be with you today thank you re what's going on I've owned Pepsi Co since it was La potato chips in Atlanta it's great stock and I know you like it but it but it's been down lately it's down about 14% from its high the last few days it's gone up which is good but I want to ask the expert what's going on with that stock okay I think if you look at the relative performance between PepsiCo and cocacola it says everything you need to know cocacola is up 8% this year okay let's just figure this out this really important and PepsiCo is down one and a half why is that because of what you mentioned the before mentioned freedo division is viewed as being uh something that's going to be in the crosshairs of the gop-1 drugs I think they're right I think they're right which is why I think right now that Coca-Cola is a better buy than PepsiCo even after this differential Mike in Texas Mike Mike Mike Professor Kramer good to talk to you again how you been I am good how about you Michael I'm doing great man the sun is shining we're Summer's full swing uh we are talking about Costco today now Costco is a core holding in my portfolio I've been really bullish on the stock it's been on an absolute tear but over the last week it kind of pulled back a little bit and I wanted to get your take on this is this a short-term pullback I should be looking for an entry point to add to my position is is there something fundamental going on here and I should think no no it's first of all Mike thank you thank you for your conviction and calling this but let me tell you something you know I I do a lot of work obviously with Jeff marks who my my partner with uh the travel trust and this stock dropped 100 points and no one even knew the difference and you had to be buying and I think that what we're always doing is we're always looking for a discount to buy Costco that's the way I've been for the last 20 years I'm not changing now when the stock goes down you buy cosd all right look the pet trate can work in almost any economy that's why I think might be time to take chewy which has moved up a lot alongo which is still reasonable JM Spar which really down out of the dogghouse and into the house spb made money ahead including Mike Su with OCTA with holes being poked in the Microsoft cyber security story I'm hearing what OCTA makes of its biggest competitor when I sit down with the CEO then as I was getting ready for the Thursday monthly meeting for the investing club that I just mentioned with Jeff marks I noticed one important theme when it comes to investing in multinational corporations I'll reveal what it is and how you should handle these Investments and of course all your calls rapid paron tonight's edition of the lighning round so stay with crr
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