“90% of Investors Don’t Understand Intrinsic Value” - Howard Marks | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

자산가격은 내재가치 주변에서 투자심리에 따라 크게 요동친다. 현재 시장은 2022년 말 이후 39개월간 강한 상승을 거쳐 가격이 내재가치 위에 있어 다소 위태롭다. 신중하되 주식시장에서 숨을 필요는 없다는 입장. 차입 기반 수익 확대는 금리 하락이라는 일회성 환경 덕분이며 지속될 것으로 기대하기 어렵다고 지적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. If intrinsic value grows like this, why do asset prices grow like this? Who knows? In the real world, things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot, but in the minds of investors, they go from flawless to hopeless. And so, the prices fluctuate enormously around the intrinsic value. Um So, you know, you have a book called Mastering the Market Cycle, and a lot of that's kind of part pattern recognition.

02. Uh where are we today? Yeah. Where are we today? In the market cycle? Yeah. Well, I believe You see, we have this thing called intrinsic value. Every company has an intrinsic value. Every asset class has an intrinsic value. And it kind of goes like this. It meanders along, and it tends to grow over time.

03. Most companies become more profitable and more valuable over time. So, intrinsic value grows like this. And it's not a straight line. It goes a little up and down and depending on the economy and the and the decisions that management makes, but it's essentially up into the right. But then, if you look at the prices of assets, they go like this.

04. They go They canter They careen like mad. What's the difference? If intrinsic value grows like this, why do asset prices grow like this? Who knows? Psychology. You know, what I say is that in the real world, things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot, but in the minds of investors, they go from flawless to hopeless.

05. And so, the prices are are fluctuate enormously around the intrinsic value. Um And um so, so what matters, if you want to make good investments, and you want to know if this is a good time to to to make investments, you say, "Well, where is price relative to intrinsic value?" When price is above intrinsic value, you're overpaying.

06. When it's When it's below intrinsic value, you're getting a discount. When it's fair, you're you're you'll basically benefit from the progress of the intrinsic value. What determines the relationship between price and intrinsic value is emotion or psychology or we call it investor sentiment. And when people are optimistic, you get prices above intrinsic value.

07. And when prices are when people are pessimistic, you get prices below intrinsic value. Uh and that's why Buffett says you should be uh uh cautious when uh people are carefree and aggressive when people are terrified. It's called contrarianism. We try to practice it. But But um So So your question was, where are we today?

08. Well, what What uh psychology holds sway today? And the answer is that uh in uh '22 was the worst year in recent memory, and it was the worst year for we we In our business, we talk about 60/40. The this hypothetical portfolio, which is 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Nobody holds it anymore, but it's it's just a figure of speech.

09. But it was the worst year in history in in all-time history for the 60/40 portfolio because stocks have done worse in the past, but usually when stocks go down, bonds go up. And this time, stocks and bonds both went down at the same time, and it was it was a rough year. Um And at the beginning of '22, people said, well, we have uh inflation.

10. That's that that's a bad thing. But then the Fed will probably raise rates to kill the inflation, and that'll cause a recession, and that's a bad thing. So in other words, it's all bad. And that's why '22 was such a bad year cuz people were depressed. But then around the end of '22, they started to say, hey, wait a minute.

11. Uh the the inflation looks like it's subsiding. And uh the higher rates haven't produced a recession. And the Fed will still will Given that the the inflation is subsiding, the Fed will probably start to cut rates, which will stimulate the economy. Oh, yeah, now it's all good. So, so again, remember flawless to hopeless.

12. And and now so the the sentiment fluctuated from hopeless to flawless, and the mark stock market started to go up roughly, I think, November of '22. And here we are uh 39 months later, and this has been one of the greatest markets in history. And uh the S&P 500 stock index has been around for about a century.

13. There have been 97 or 98 3-year periods, by definition, and uh there have you know only six which were better than than than the last 3 years. So, we've had a big swing from uh pessimism to optimism. We've had a rapid rise in prices, but now I don't think it can be argued that prices are below intrinsic value.

14. I think they're above, which means that the market is somewhat precarious, and you should take uh uh uh an intelligently prudent uh approach to it. That's I appreciate that. It's not terrible. You should It's not time to hide under the mattress, but but you should be careful. So, you know, if I borrow money to acquire a company that already has significant amount of debt, and then sell it later, that benefits tremendously from what you just described, and we've seen superior returns, uh at least higher returns, over the past multiple decades, right?

15. Entire industries have been built on this. Entire frameworks for investing, even endowments, have revolved around this. Going forward, would it be rational to expect that to continue? Well, it would not be rational. Thank you. Um So, you can go out and buy something, and if it goes up, you'll make some money.

16. Or you can go out and borrow some money and I of them, and if they go up, you'll make five times as much money. If it goes up, well, declining interest rate make it go up. And the cost of paying the money, well, better example. So, you're sitting there and you find a company, if you buy that company, you think you can make 10% a year if you own it.

17. And you talk to your investment banker and they say, well, we can get money for you at 8%. You say, oh, I can borrow at 8 and invest at 10, let's go. So, you go and do it. But then interest rates go down. And rather than make 10, you make 12. And rather than pay 8, you pay 6. And you you say, I'm Bernard Baruch, you know?

18. And and and so never confuse brains in a bull market. And and when you're lucky, when you when you happen upon a salutary environment, never think it was all you. And and most people credit themselves with all their successes and blame others for their failures.