"Market Volatility Is the Biggest Opportunity" - Howard Marks | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

변동성은 위험이 아니며, 위험은 원치 않는 결과가 발생할 확률이라고 주장. 고위험 자산이 고수익을 보장한다는 통념은 틀렸고, 위험 자산은 기대수익이 높아 보여야 투자되지만 실제 결과 범위는 넓고 하방 손실이 커질 수 있다고 설명. 버핏의 '울퉁불퉁한 15%가 매끄러운 12%보다 낫다'는 말을 인용하며 생존이 장기 수익의 전제라고 강조. 투자자는 확실성과 높은 기대수익 가능성 중 하나를 선택해야 하는 트레이드오프가 본질이라고 결론.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Risk is the probability of a negative outcome of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the street. Investors don't care about volatility. I've never heard anybody say, "Oh, you know, I I don't think I'm going to invest in that cuz it could be volatile." They say, "I'm not going to invest cuz I could lose money." That's risk.

02. Risk, in my opinion, and my has evolved, uh risk is the probability of a negative outcome. Of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the street. And Buffett uh said, "I would rather have a lumpy 15 than a smooth 12." And if you can survive long enough to enjoy the long-term benefit of the lumpy 15, it beats the hell out of the smooth 12.

03. But you have to survive and and so so volatility is relevant for some people, but volatility is not risk. And if I had that interview and somebody said the volatility is this, I would have to uh educate them. So, what they If you If you see the the vertical axis, the horizontal axis, and the diagonal line, this was a a graphic presentation that I virtually saw every day at University of Chicago for 2 years.

04. And of course, what you know, the line slopes up into the right that that means positive correlation. Uh you have return on the vertical axis and risk on the horizontal axis, and you go from left to right on the uh horizontal axis, that is to say, you take on more risk, the line goes up. And you get more return.

05. Positive correlation. Now, and this is what I was taught at Chicago. And if you say to most people, even today, even the people who haven't read the book. What does that mean? That relationship. Ignore the squiggles for now. Just focus on the diagonal line. They would say, "Well, what it means is the riskier assets have higher returns." And you'll get that nine times out of 10.

06. Nothing could be more incorrect. If you think about it. If a risky asset can be counted on to have a high return, then it's not risky. So, it can't be true. It's just It's just incorrect on its face. What the relationship means is that an asset that appears to be risky has to appear to offer a high return, or else nobody will buy it.

07. That makes perfect sense. If I If I come in here with my oak tree sales kit, and I say, "We have a Treasury bill fund that will give you a return of six." Or we have a venture capital fund where we're going to invest in AI startups, and if we choose the right ones, we think we can make you six. Which will you take?

08. You'll take the Treasury bill fund. You'll say, "Why would I possibly take the risk associated with doing startups if it doesn't offer a premium return?" That's the most intelligent thing you can say. It has to appear to offer a high return, but it doesn't have to deliver. That's where the risk lies.

09. And so, what I did in a memo in '06 called risk is I took these little bell-shaped probability distributions, and I turned them on their side, and I superimposed them on the line. So, now, as you go from left to right on the horizontal axis, and you increase the risk, what happens? In the old graph, the return went up.

10. Expected return. Now, the expected return goes up, but the range of possible outcomes becomes wider, and the bad outcomes become worse. That's risk. Risk is the unpredictability and the possibility of a wider range of outcomes and the fact that some of them can be more negative. That's risk. And so, when we uh select our investments, we have a trade-off to make.

11. You can have a uh an a an investment you expect to have a low return dependably, confidently, maybe even contractually, or you can have an investment with the with a high expected return, upside beyond that, but the chance of falling short and even losing money. That's the fundamental choice. Do you want certainty or do you want the possibility of a high return?

12. You can't get both. There's no such thing as uh of the certainty of a high return. And and so, this I think that this uh chart uh captures all of that. And I use I use pictures a lot because I do think that it that it's true what they say, a picture is better than a thousand words.