저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
정치 성향과 투자 판단을 분리하라는 취지의 영상. 대통령 임기 연차별로 주식 시장 성과에 일정한 패턴이 있고, 민주당·공화당 집권기 수익률 차이는 극단적 해(외생 요인)를 제외하면 거의 같다고 주장. 특정 정당이 주식에 유리하다는 믿음은 틀렸다고 설명. 주식시장은 대략 3~30개월 앞의 경기를 반영한다는 점도 강조.
다듬은 글
what you think about politics shouldn't be any of your stock market business unless you know way more about how markets work than most people do in which case you're not going to waste your time listen to me so every month I take another uh little chapter out of my debunkery book uh to uh something that in the book I depicted as bunk and how you know it's bunk and what you do about it or don't do about it and so this month I'm looking at number 41 uh which is my political party is best for stocks now I don't care if you're political at all Democrat Republican whatever there is this big tendency to believe that my side's right the other side's wrong if my side wins things will be good if their side wins things will be terrible I hear this articulated here in 2024 as from a republican if Harris wins the presidency it's going to be terrible from Democrats as if Trump wins the presidency it's going to be a disaster now the fact of the matter is I just want you to think about this I'm going to say this once and then I'm going to babble incessantly this is almost always wrong it's wrong in 2024 what you think about politics shouldn't be any of your stock market business unless you know way more about how markets work than most people do in which case you're not going to waste your time listen to me let me take you through a little of this first there are some things that matter in politics as it relates to stocks and I've written a lot about that in my lifetime there's a regular Cadence tied to our political bi biases that lead the third year of a president's term to be almost perfectly good almost always the fourth year of a president's term to be pretty darn good but not as good as the third years the first and second year to have the most stock market risk so next year could get a little riskier for gridlock to have goodlock meaning president of one party and at least one of the chambers of Congress to be of the other party to have better stock market years overall than when one party has the presidency house in the Senate but let me speak against that for a moment you got plenty of examples of when you've had the president House and Senate of a party that you hate where the stock market's been great let me take you to that let's say you're a DieHard Democrat and you hate Donald Trump because as I think you know some people do therefore you think if Donald Trump wins it's going to be bloody disaster well again I'm not talking social policy I'm talking about the stock market because mostly all I talk about is capital markets it's not my place to tell you about morality it's not my place to tell you about what religion you should believe in or who you should marry or where you should send your kids to school that's all out side my bailey but I'm just going to tell you let's say you think Donald Trump's going to be just terrible remember that Donald Trump got elected in 2016 with the Republican House and Senate and you got a 20% return the next year when most Democrats thought it was going to go down in fact on the day Donald Trump got elected most people thought it was going to be a bloody disaster right away and the market whipsawed and went up but then you could be a Republican and think it's going to be just terrible if vice president Harris gets elected to be president of the United States because she's well well you know what you think she is you don't need me to tell you what you think she is because you're a republican but I want to point out President Biden got elected uh uh uh uh in 2020 and 2021 his first year in office markets up 26% with a democratic House and Senate that happens more often than you might suspect I can't remember the number at the top of my head but go back and look at Barack Obama's first inaugural year and it was one of those 20% kind of numbers if you were a republican you'd think that was just terrible that that and you wouldn't expect that to happen and if you traded based off of your view that your part's right and the other part's wrong you're going to get yourself whipsawed so many times now mind you then there's the other one that people do all the time they look at the long-term history and if you actually look at the long-term history in the period that I normally site 1925 to present the time period where we have really good accurate data for the S&P 500 you will see that the democratic presidents have done better than Republic president's terms for your for your periods but if you got a statistical bone in your body you take the most extreme of them and presume something extreme was going on throw them out and when you do that the way a statistician would both parties have near identical returns I actually did that in the prior debunk chapter debunk number 40 where I showed that if you do it the way a statistician does it both Republicans and Democrats have effectively identical returns you just throw out a few extreme years the extreme years caused by extreme things things that necessarily the president wouldn't have had any real control over and what do you get you get both parties acting the same almost always your political bias hurts you when it comes to investing I am not saying that your views are wrong about social issues about cultural issues even about longer term economic issues remember the stock market doesn't care next year about how the economy does 10 years from now as I have said many many times the stock market prices the approximate next 3 to 30 months sometimes a little on the shy side of that sometimes a little on the long side of that but only by a little long-term economic Trends it doesn't price until you get closer to them whatever your views are about what Donald Trump or Cal Harris might do or not do to the stock market you better be darn sure they're not consistent with your political biases because your political biases in the stock market will always hurt you not necessarily wrong in Main Street not necessarily wrong in culture and social issues might be right on all that but in the stock market they blind you so on that the whole purpose of debunk number 41 is to show you exactly why the notion that my party is good for stocks is actually wrong thank you for listening to me I hope you found that useful and want to tune in next month when I do another Deon off of debunker I very much hope you enjoyed this video as part of my series on debunking Common Market myths to watch more videos like this click the link on the screen and make sure to subscribe to Fisher Investments YouTube channel thanks so much for listening to me
Comments 0