저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: Tom Lee는 역사적으로 연간 10~15% 상승 후 12월이 상승한 비율이 100%라며 2020년 12월 강세를 전망했고, 비트코인은 2021년에 3배 상승할 수 있다고 봤다. 12월 시장 전망: 과거 75년간 연간 10~15% 상승 해의 12월은 모두 상승했다고 주장했다. 다만 Karen의 지적대로 해당 사례는 13회에 불과하며, 연간 15% 이상 상승 시 12월 상승 비율은 약 77%다. 섹터: 최근 3주 조정에서 경기민감주(epicenter, cyclicals)가 약 20% 상승해 주도 흐름을 보였고, 12월에는 대형 기술주와 FANG이 따라잡기를 할 수 있으나 진짜 강세는 경기민감주에서 나올 것이라 봤다. 2021년 전망: 2020년 상승분이 2021년 수익을 일부 선반영했을 수 있으며 2021년은 까다로울 것으로 봤다. 경기 회복과 인플레이션 위험 재기대가 있고, 매출은 소폭 늘고 순이익 레버리지가 큰 종목이 유망하다고 했다. 비트코인: 2020년 약 200% 상승했으며, 반감기 다음 해인 2017년과 유사한 패턴이라 2021년 약 3배(triple) 상승 가능성을 주장했다. 반대 의견(James/Dave 등): 12월 100% 상승 통계는 표본이 작아 신뢰하기 어렵다는 지적이 있었다. 달러 약세와 인플레이션 위험, 원자재·구리 강세에 대한 언급이 있었다. 한 출연자는 2021년 S&P500 20% 하락 가능성을 언급한 증권사 노트를 소개했다. 리스크: 인플레이션 기대 재발, 과거 통계의 표본 한계, 비트코인 과열 가능성. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 강세 유지, James는 S&P500 단기 숏(인augural까지) 입장을 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
all right today's rally may be the start of something even bigger at least house of fun strat's tom lee says he says when the market is up 10 to 15 on the year heading into the final month of the year as we have seen in november we see december gains 100 of the time tom joins us now tom really 100 of the time um that's history so history doesn't have to repeat but it does confirm you know a general view that strong markets and strong so we've had a great year to date um i mean we're up double digits i think in shocking contrast to a depression that we've just gone through but that also means that december shouldn't be weak it should really finish strong does history tell us which sectors finish strong i i think that the consolidation we saw in the last three weeks really revealed leadership you know markets were kind of churning but the epicenter trade which i guess people call cyclicals gained almost 20 percent so i think as much as i as much as i think big cap tech and fang maybe have a bit of a catch-up in december i think the real fireworks is going to come from the epicenter from the episode so you would belong there what what happens after december december is a very short time frame for investors i understand this is called fast money but january 1st what's your guess i mean are we are we pulling forward gains from 2021 um i mean i i think 2020 cold ford gains certainly for some future periods so i i think 2021 is going to be tricky um because i think 2020 was a lot about market symmetry you know we fell very quickly and we rebounded really quickly but now in 2021 that's no longer the case so i think everything you guys talked about are really important factors you know that the economy is recovering there's probably a renewed expectation of inflation risk maybe inflation doesn't happen but the risk does but i think that the real story is going to be operating leverage so i think stocks that can show a little bit of top line but a huge amount of flow through net income are going to be the real attractive stocks in 2021.
tom it's karen thanks for being on the show and uh just kudos to you for some outstanding calls this year multiple times i got a question to about this hundred percent anytime you say 100 of anything it sort of makes me want to bet the opposite in that period of time how many years qualified to set up for that december that you referred to with mark was up 10 to 15 yeah there's um well there are 75 years between 1945 and today and of which 13 fall in that 10 to 15 range and uh so 100 of the time you had gains now there are 23 instances where you're up more than 15 percent year to date and the markets were up 77 of the time so you're you know if you were to blend uh all the sort of 10 plus years you're still going to be in the almost 85 range but the but the the amplitude of the gain is still like over three percent so we're talking about 100 points in the s p i love when karen questions the quality of the data tom i gotta turn you to bitcoin since we've seen this run here um your forecast is for triple next year you stand by that you want to ratchet that higher given given the run that we've seen uh yeah i i think that what that triple is based upon is um the year after the happening so bitcoin had a happening this year and uh you know bitcoin is up almost 200 percent so it's had a great year but it looks pretty textbook compared to prior happenings which cut supply but it's really the year that follows the happening so 2017 was a year that follows happening and as you know that's really when you see the fireworks so i think 2020 is a little bit more like 2016 where the rally was starting so 2021 would be like 2017 and as you know 2017 was a pretty insane year for bitcoin and i think something similar could happen tom always good to speak with you thank you yeah thanks tom lee a fun strat we will have a full write-up of tom's december forecast by the way on our website so check it out cnbc.compro in the meantime uh let's trade that a hundred percent of the time guyadami december is up you buy that the only thing that happens 100 of the time with me is if i applied to harvard i would be rejected 100 of the time that's guaranteed short of that i don't listen tom lee has done phenomenal work karen mentioned that and he's been steadfast in many of the things that he said and they've all come to fruition so i'm not going to argue with him on this point what i'll say though to the earlier points the things that concern me and i share some of james is skepticism is the fact that there is inflation i think bk is being kind their inflation in all the wrong places and oh by the way the u.s dollar getting torched is inflationary regardless of whether or not the fed janet yellen whoever wants to acknowledge it that's very inflationary and city just put out a note a week and a half two weeks ago saying 20 decline in 2021 risk assets might go up in that scenario but the ones who outperform the resource stocks and the mining stocks and we've talked about that for a while 155 quickly in the tlt that is your line in the sand that probably comes in around 98 basis points or thereabouts yeah the steel etf hitting a new high in today's session goldman sachs going full bowl on copper and copper's run that we've seen so far james you've done some work in terms of historical patterns have you found not what tom lee has found right and i echo the sentiment um that tom is brilliant at what he does and analyzing these datas i've had the pleasure of sitting on a few presentations with tom inarguable the past but we've heard the word unprecedented in 2020 an unprecedented number of times from an unprecedented number of people all types of records have been broken we've seen literally records shattered almost every month almost every week in the data on stocks and the data on earnings valuations gdp metrics and so on and so forth and so i am short this market i am short the s p and i will remain short until inauguration and i expect that this will be the exception of that trend for december to finish positive
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