저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 달러 붕괴와 금·은 급등을 예상하며, 실물 금 수요 급증과 선물 시장의 공매도 붕괴 가능성을 근거로 지금 실물 금·은을 사두라고 권한다. 금 실물 시장과 선물 괴리: 중앙은행·투기 세력은 금리만 보고 금 선물을 매도하지만, 실질금리는 여전히 마이너스이므로 금에 우호적 환경이 계속되고 있다고 주장한다. 실물 프리미엄이 역대급으로 치솟고 있다. 선물 공매도 리스크: 금·은 선물 매도자 다수가 실물을 보유하지 않은 투기 세력이며, 실물 인도 요구가 늘면 숏이 강제 청산되며 급등이 나타날 것이라고 본다. 코로나 당시 유가 마이너스 사태를 비유로 든다. 서브프라임 비유: 과거 서브프라임도 붕괴 전 수년간 명백했으나 붕괴는 순식간이었다며, 지금 금 시장도 조기 진입이 필요하다고 강조한다. 부채·저축 리스크: 대규모 부채 청산은 저축 소멸로 이어져 경제에 치명적이며, 은퇴 계획이 무너지고 사회주의로 기울 수 있다고 우려한다. 금 관련 상품 비교: GLD는 실물 금 기반 ETF, GDX는 금광 주식 바스켓이다. 쉬프는 광산주는 종목 선별이 중요하며 자신의 운용사 Euro Pacific Gold Fund나 일임 계좌를 추천한다. 리스크: 장기적 달러·금 강세 주장이며 단기 타이밍은 불확실하다고 명시하지 않고 확신을 강하게 표명한다.
다듬은 글
question wants to know if I can explain how the manipulation can affect the price of paper gold and not affect the affect the actual Commodities and you know in my gold business and I just experienced this through the bank because the bank had a lot of gold and we're trying to move that gold out and some of it needed to be liquidated and Banks heads book and I was talking to the company that was storing all the bars and he was commenting on this huge surge in premiums for physical bars of gold and silver he's never seen him this high in his life there's tremendous demand even as the price was dropping the man was surging around the world because obviously look there's inflation people are looking for a real hedge and so they're trying to buy gold and silver but again the big money the speculators all they're doing is looking at the interest rates and the fed and they've got these computer algorithms that are like oh bonds down interest rates up sell gold right they just think that higher interest rates are bad for gold they don't get it these are just higher nominal interest rates they're not higher real interest rates expect we still have negative interest rates we haven't even come close to positive interest rates we have been in a bullish environment for gold the entire time it's just that these computer algorithms don't get that but the big money has been trading in the Futures market and so that has kind of been the um the the dog wagging the tail of the physical Market but at some point and maybe soon maybe this week who knows that's gonna flip because the big money is going to figure out they're on the wrong side of the street especially the ones that are short and given what I know about the shortage in the physical Market it's possible that people that actually want physical gold may be buying some of these contracts looking to take physical delivery which is going to be a shock in the shorts when they're forced to deliver gold that they don't have remember all the people that are selling gold and silver Futures contracts unless they're a hedger unless they're a you know mining company right they're hedging if they're a Speculator and they're just short in gold and silver they don't actually have any you know like when you short a stock you're supposed to have the stop right you have to own the stock and borrow it you don't have it you get the shares and then you sell them but you know you sell Futures on gold and silver you don't have to have any gold and silver at all well normally it doesn't matter that you don't have it because the guy that bought it you don't want it either right everybody settles up in cash but what happens if the law up decides to tell the Futures exchange yeah you know I actually want my my goal you know here's my address send it to me send me my bars now the exchange has to send a notice to the guy who's short saying hey you know you never have silver you sold or that bold you sold yeah you got to deliver it here's the address you got to send it to and he's like I don't have it how am I gonna get it you know and so now he's got a buy at his way out of that contract unless he's gonna go find that that physical metal I mean it's the opposite of what happened with oil remember when oil prices went negative went to negative 30 in barrels during covet why was that well because the people who bought the contracts were being forced to take delivery the people who sold the oil right they didn't want the oil so they said I'm going to deliver it I got no place for it and so the people who owned the contracts were being told yeah we're going to deliver all this oil to you where do you want it yeah I I don't want it so now they had to pay people to take it off their hands so people were paying 30 a barrel so they didn't have to take delivery of the oil right and so you saw that crazy Market well you're going to see something as crazy as that on the upside of gold when people are scrambling to deliver on the gold contracts when they can't find the physical metal so that's all coming so that's why look I tell people just you know buy your gold buy your silver while you can get it because at some point you won't be able to get it because the people are going to figure out what's happening just like you know the subprime market imploded all at once it was obvious for years to me but even within weeks of the implosion people were still buying that crap and paying above park it and all of a sudden Emperor has no clothes and in a matter of a week everything went to zero so when this thing turns it's going to unravel that's why again I keep saying you can't wait you can't try to be so cute and finesse this you got to be willing to be early all right I was way early I was more than a decade early okay but you know what am I gonna do I see this stuff way in advance because to me it's that crystal clear but I also could see that we're so much closer right now it is not worth betting that they're going to be able to pull another rabbit out of their hat can you go deeper into debt borrowing from the future that is actually using other people's savings plus leverage on a global scale hundreds of trillions what is a long-term harm from wiping out our defaulting on debt well the problem is savings are really the lifeblood of economic growth because savings under consumption is where a capital investment comes from get my book our economy grows and why it crashes we you know it's a very simple way of explaining this important concept but if you wipe out everybody's debt you wipe out everybody's savings and that is a disaster to wipe out the savings because now you know you know you turn back the clock because now you got to reaccumulate you have no more money to loan out to finance things and you know people were expecting to live off the savings you know yeah it's great when people no longer have debt but one person's liability is somebody's asset there are a lot of people that are planning on retire they're not they're gonna have to come up with a new plan they ain't gonna retire they're gonna have to keep working because they've been wiped out so look this you know this is going to be a terrible thing that's going to happen um but there is a silver lining in that if it's catalyst for countries to re-embrace free market capitalism and maybe for some countries it will be but for other countries it may be a catalyst to go all in on government and become totalitarian uh State uh and you just got to get the hell out of those countries as fast as you can even if that is the United States I don't know I hope that's not going to be the United States but you know it may be I mean because I'm not necessarily going to get what I hope for we're going to get what the political reality is and unfortunately uh the the the electorate has been done now over uh over the decades and so they may just go for socialism that's just how dumb uh most Americans are when it comes to understanding of economic what is advantage of GDX over GLD all right well they're very different so GDX is an index of gold mining stocks GLD is an ETF of gold bullion so when you're buying GLD you're buying physical gold now same thing as like somebody called up early about Kinesis same thing by Kinesis you're buying physical gold it's like buying GLD except I can't send my GLD to my buddy you know in Europe or I can't use my GLD to go to Starbucks and buy a cup of coffee like you could in theory uh with Kinesis or with G coin or any one of these uh tokens that's backed by gold so but they're like an ETF right because they're you have the goal there and then there's a share associated with it as opposed to a a token that's been created but GDX is just a diversified basket of mining stocks now personally I think my portfolio that Adrian Day Management at my golf club the Euro Pacific gold fund or the separately managed accounts that Adrian manages for my clients I think Adrian is smart enough to beat an index because the thing with the index is it just buys everything but I think Adrian can figure out which stocks are better to own and which stocks are better to avoid you know he's been doing this for 40 years he knows the mining sector he doesn't have to buy an index you buy the index where you don't know what you're doing and that way oh I'm not going to make a mistake I'm just going to buy the index now sometimes you buy it because there's more liquidity there right than any one individual name you're a big fun okay I'm gonna buy the index because you know I don't have enough liquidity in some of these names but if you're an individual investor you don't have to do that buy the your Pacific gold fund set up a managed account with me let Adrian day build you a portfolio
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