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Whales Street · 2023-02-15 · 유튜브 시청 33 · Board Views 7 · International

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저자: Whales Street · 외국인

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01. well back to what I said before they should only put their money where they themselves know a lot about where they're putting their money otherwise when things go wrong you don't know what to do and things probably will go wrong again you mentioned the 70s you know David we had big inflation in those days and as you point out it's worse now David in 1980 the interest rate on United States government treasury bills with over 21 percent that's not a typo they had to raise interest rates extremely would be extremely high now in order to kill inflation interest rates are nothing compared to 21 now so if we're going to solve this problem we're going to have to face a lot of pain do I like it no but I have to deal with facts do I think they've gone high enough no no it's only less than two years ago that the Federal Reserve was saying there's not going to be inflation and then they said oh it's temporary don't worry this is transitory you know these guys don't know what they're doing most Central Bank officials or bureaucrats or academics they don't know how the world works we just want to preserve their job you said they've raised interest the way sure they have but I repeat they were 21 on treasury bills treasury bills a short-term treasury bills uh last time around so no we're going to have to have a lot of pain before we solve this problem well this is 2023 a book 2022 is finished we don't have we don't I don't think we have those risks and if we do David we have a very serious problem if we're still worried about 2022.

02. no the biggest risk of the federal central banks not just the Federal Reserve the guy in Japan has said you know he will print his word unlimited amounts of money and he does goes to work every day in Prince as fast as he can we have a lot of central banks doing things like that they're in realize our problem whenever you have a lot of money printing it distorts markets it distorts inflation it distorts interest rates and gigantic debt you know 1980 America was a creditor Nation we were still accredited now with the largest detonation in the history of the world big things have changed since then but not for the good at least not as far as as an American which I am now I see what's happened there was no red I mean it was still red China then there was still Soviet Union then there's a huge things that have changed in the world unfortunately I have always I am always worried about that history is pretty clear that we've had many many awards in history there was a study recently of American History America's been around since 1776 and every year except 15 of those years in 1776 America's been at War somewhere do I like that fact do I like that statement of course not but wait for whatever reason I should say Washington for whatever reason seems to like War so there's a very good Prospect you see what what we did in Ukraine we jab the Russians as often as we could you see what we're doing in Taiwan I mean Nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan I mean she must want a war to fly to Taiwan to to jab the Chinese in the face you know why do you have to do that uh let's try to solve problems not aggravate problems well I have had investments in defense at times in my in my life I don't think I have many now if any but no certainly if we're going to be War I have War military companies will do very well they always have I don't think I have any investments in that sector right now maybe maybe I should listen to Kinto and go and look for some this afternoon well I I read the same things you do and I listen to KidCo the problem is it's very rare in history that everybody has known and in the recession is coming you know this is the most broadcast and most forecast recession that I've ever seen in my life and knowing that people most people are usually wrong I would say we're probably not there depends on where you're talking about but for instance China has been closed now China is opening up that's going to give a big boost to the world economy because they are the second largest economy in the world so I would not be surprised if we're if there was not a recession yet I expected certainly to come you know David uh I'm sure you know you're a kid from third year of a presidential cycle in American history usually Been a Good Year in the American Stock Market you know and this is the year three coming up and the reason that happened is politicians try to spend a lot of money preparing for year four the next election so they can get reelected so I I would imagine that things are really better than that we we read just because the world doesn't work that way if everybody knows something it's usually wrong well you just told them you you know what they know they know what to do they know to spend money they know who and their constituencies wants a new park or a new school or a new road and they'll spend it and they will do that they always have anyway these are the guys know how to buy boats and I suspect that they will do that that's not to say that there won't be a recession coming eventually it's just that this I have never seen in my investing career are read about one that was so widely anticipated and so widely forecast the world just doesn't work that way when everybody knows something it's usually not right the bottom will the stock market is David the stock market's down what 19 or 20 percent something like that I mean I've been around long enough to know that 19 or 20 percent is not very serious waiting list down 70 or 80 percent when you see companies going bankrupt left right and Center so far this is not fun do not get me wrong this is not fun but there's certainly not dramatic or even significant in the history of financial markets well unfortunately many people when they're down 50 70 percent say oh my god I've lost a lot of money now I have to go back and make it back and then they start taking more risk and my answer to them is no you don't have to act quickly the best thing you can do is to sit and do nothing thing for a while recover figure out what's going on because if you just rush in when you're emotionally wounded after losing a lot of money you're usually going to make even more mistakes so my best advice to people at that stage is do nothing close the window and just wait recover and then wait until you find something that you know is going to be good do not get emotional now listen I make the same mistakes David don't think I I don't the reason I know this happened is because it happens to me it happens to everybody well I I once had a great great success in the markets uh gigantic success and I got very cocky I began to think I was smart I began to think I knew what I was doing uh I had so short and I had actually bought puts and made a lot of money so I covered my puts on the day the market made the bottom and so I said well I'll wait for the market to rally and then I'll sell ashore and I did and the market rallied I sold short and but you know three or four months later I was wiped out and the reason I was wiped out is because I still did not know a lot about markets I assume that people knew what I knew that most of the companies I shorted went bankrupt in the end but I lost everything first David because I did not know enough about markets I did not know about trading I did not know enough how markets reacted and how the public reacted and so I lost everything now I was very depressed don't think this was my um I guess I could have become a priest or kill myself or who knows what but I I didn't all I could do was start over and I did and somehow another I survived and my best advice to everybody and what I said before if you lose a lot of money don't think you have to jump in and make it up again right away calm down wait recover until you find something that you know will work thank you

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