저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 재정적자와 신용등급 강등으로 국채금리가 상승하면 미국 디레버리징과 국채 매도가 일어나고, 그 대안으로 금·비트코인·XRP·이더리움 등 가상자산 수요가 커진다고 주장. 트럼프 행정부의 가상자산 친화 정책(수수료 0%, 법안 추진)과 XRP 커뮤니티(500만 보유자)를 강세 근거로 제시. 재정법안은 전력 공급 부족과 인플레이션 우려를 낳는다고 비판. 1~3개월 내 가상자산 강세를 낙관하나 최종 판단은 유보.
다듬은 글
It's also about technology we are seeing right now. But there is another warning I want to show to you guys. There was a warning for Chamat which is also a billionaire has actually warned you know all XRP investors as well. This was another thing that I saw. You're curious about what's happening to gold and Bitcoin.
Again we need to see and it's kind of my rule to teach you that this is basically a pattern we see in crypto every four years. Every four years, we get a ton of buyers who don't really understand what's happening in the markets. And I really like explaining on why this is exactly as predicted. Stuff I said 3 months ago has happened now.
They started to spike in the last few days. You'll have ratings organizations that add to this cascade by downgrading the United States. That happened on Friday. You'll have very smart people starting to signal that this is a much harder problem than they initially thought. Way beyond what most people thought was a reasonable place to be for the United States economy.
And so what will the implications be as rates go to those levels? You'll delever from the United States. You'll sell US debt. you'll own things like gold and bitcoin. This is that's why the main retail investors are buying cryptocurrencies. They don't trust it anymore. They don't trust the old payment system.
The opposite of that. I think what happened was there was really not a lot of financial literacy used to decide what to actually put in and what to cut. And that lack of discipline is going to create I think a negative set of consequences. Yeah. So, the markets are going to be changing right now more crazier than ever before.
Will be for the president to decide how much credit he actually wants to take for this bill because even though it has his name on it, the contents of the bill are different in actual facts than what I think he intended. And what I mean by that is when you look inside of what happened in the 11th hour last night, it's disappointing.
If Doge was meant to be a reflection of the American voting population's desire for meaningful reform in government, cost controls, some form of austerity, and to get this debt spiral in check. This is the opposite of that. What happened was in the 11th hour, you had a handful of people abstain. You had one person that fell asleep on the floor of the house.
So, he wasn't even woken up for the vote. And in the middle of all of that chaos, what happened was all kinds of things were added and attacked. So, yet the thing I'm seeing right now with crypto is it's really going to change people's perception. You know, right now we are seeing Bitcoin basically blowing up in a very good way and it it's probably going to be exploding even more.
It's going to bring a lot of people. Um, and people are not satisfied with how the government is working right now. They're hoping for a better future. What most people thought was a reasonable place to be for the United States economy. And so, what will the implications be as rates go to those levels?
You'll delever from the United States. You'll sell US debt. You'll own things like gold and Bitcoin. If you're curious about what's happening to gold and Bitcoin, they started again less people don't want to hold what the government holds. And that's why they're choosing to go a different path. They're choosing to hold XRP.
They're choosing to hold Ethereum. Uh they want to just hold different stuff that's maybe not cryptocurrencies at this point. Spike in the last few days. You'll have ratings organizations that add to this cascade by downgrading the United States. That happened on Friday. You'll have very smart people starting to signal that this is a much harder problem than they initially thought.
That's how I personally interpreted Elon's comments over the last few days. So, what was the House supposed to do? I think what they were supposed to do was implement some form of austerity. They were supposed to by the will of the people pass a recision bill. They were given that recision bill. It was just $9 billion.
They couldn't even pass a $9 billion recision. And instead they passed a $4 trillion inflation to our debt. Now you hand this to the Senate. The Senate is in a very difficult place as well. do they want to quote unquote claim victory and say here you go President Trump here's your bill but they'll further bastardize this thing and it will be even further away from what I think benefits MAGA and benefits Main Street so who does it benefit current course in speed right now this bill is about traditional Republicans and traditional Democrats circling the wagon you're going to see energy prices spike you're gutting the number of electrons that will be available for things like AI and the math is wrong.
So when you sensitize this thing to a 4 and a half or five or five and a quarter rate, so meaning not what the CBO used but the real conditions on the ground, this thing is an albatross. And I think unfortunately for President Trump's agenda and for a MAGA movement, this is the worst of all conditions.
The financial markets will punish this. So yeah, he's basically calling for a big price crash. But here's where I don't agree. I feel like he's saying, you know, the the markets will correct because of this big bill or the Doge Doge stuff. We already saw Elon Musk basically leave all the control he had.
Uh he left did a full-on 180 and Trump was not happy. And look exactly what happened when Trump left. So, I'm not sure when this interview was, but it does seem it was like pretty recent, maybe just before these events happened, but just after that, Trump went full 180 on crypto. Basically sped up the crypto bills, uh went for XRP to to talk about the future of it.
He improved everything that was really really great for the economy and for American people. We were waiting for, you know, like he was talking about 0% crypto tax. I mean, which country does that? Almost none. And and you know, for small transactions, it really does make a difference. He invited key players.
The biggest issue with sometimes with governments is they don't listen to the biggest people in the industry. Like for example, if you work in the car industry, um, and you want to make, you know, a great car, the government sometimes don't want to listen. They want to make their own rules. But Trump literally invited people when he signed the bill.
He invited, you know, Coinbase, you know, people who were interested in XRP. He met up six months ago with Brad Garlinghouse, who's a very big player in crypto. Again, billionaires who can give him his opinion, their opinion. Again, these are people who talk with other billionaires and have a ton of content between between each other.
So, they're talking. So it's just a clear win for any XRP holders to to see massive gains right now from this economy. I just don't see that you know the market will adapt in a negative way until possibly in 3 4 months. So right now not financial prediction but shortterm I am definitely bullish where we didn't see that you know ever happen in crypto history.
We never saw these events and I want to see how it all plays out during a period marked by parabolic upward moves in prices. But all that is about to change as the market gears up for a shock. Tariff fears are beginning to increase and investors are hesitant. When thinking through the situation, he recently noted that Bitcoin may experience cyclical movements even within a broader long-term downtrend, but the bigger picture still points toward major gains despite all the factors in the market.
But this is where I will say I'll put my money where my mouth is and I'll put the chips on the table to say this is the moment. This is the moment where we either reunderwite what we voted for or we mistakenly pass this Christmas tree concoction and they are going to go in one direction and it's away from us have a shortage of electrons because these financial actors they're not you know and in fairness to them they're acting rationally.
You take the financial incentive away and you can't underwrite this thing. What are they going to do? they're just going to stop doing it. So, in the absence of electrons, what happens? Prices go up. It's inflationary. And now you'll have to allocate electrons. Does the electrons go to an AI data center or does it go to a home?
In a different example, actually on the residential side, places like Florida, I think there was like an incentive for like batteries. So if you are about to get hit by a hurricane, you can buy these big battery systems from Tesla as an example, but there are other ones, Generrack and whatever train that was cut out in Texas.
All of these impacts will have negative consequences. My point is I think you have to really look at what happened in the 11th hour. So yeah, he's talking how bad stuff is happening, you know, that we're going to be seeing a great crypto crash, but he didn't talk about, in my opinion, the positives right now that we're seeing with crypto and XRP.
This is the biggest news that we have probably been seeing for the crypto markets. All we have been seeing is a few details that will potentially affect badly if they don't change. But again, one bad news unless it's like a cataclysmic event, uh, like the big thing that people are talking about World War II.
So, if I mention it, I basically get demonetized. But that's the big thing that, you know, people mention about. And what we're seeing right now is people going for these events to see a crypto crash, but it doesn't seem like it. Everything seems like all the other factors I looked at, everything looks like it's going to go to a full massive bull run.
Chamath's outlook is fueled by the impending wave of mass adoption, which he believes presents an unparalleled opportunity. Again, if people, you know, go for the government's less, if they don't trust the regulation, what do they do? They enter the crypto space because it's more decentralized. It's communityfriendly.
Again, why don't you buy gold? It's because gold is rising very slow. Everybody who's been telling me gold is still sitting at same prices. Again, I could be wrong. People were talking about silver. Nothing wrong with that. But the big moneywise thing that really pumps prices is the community. And that's where XRP wins.
The community like look at this. 3 million people, 5 million people have bought XRP so far and maybe some have sold. And with that amount of leverage, it basically gives you a huge potential. 5 million people. Again, this is a big big army of holders who like to talk about to their friends how much profit they made, what they're go doing from here. And this is
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