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결론: 멍거는 비트코인을 투자 대상으로 보지 않으며 강한 회의론을 유지하고, 주식·주요 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 제시하지 않았다. 비트코인: 금과 달리 인위적 공급 증가가 가능하고, 규칙을 바꿀 유인이 있어 신뢰하기 어렵다고 주장. 쉬운 부를 약속하는 것은 위험하며 피해야 할 대상이라고 평가. 본인은 투자하지 않겠다는 입장. 세금 정책: 법인세 인하는 싱가포르 등 여러 국가에서 효과를 본 정책이며 기업 자본가치와 부의 효과를 높일 수 있다고 봄. 효과의 크기는 아무도 정확히 알지 못한다고 언급. 정치·사회: 정당 간 증오와 경멸은 잘못이며 정책 차이는 문명적으로 논의해야 한다고 강조. 분노는 이성을 몰아낸다는 입장. 기술·경제 이론: 애덤 스미스는 기술 발전이 생활수준을 높이는 효과를 놓쳤고, 리카도는 무역의 2차 효과(선진국 대비 후발국 성장 속도 차이)를 놓쳤다고 평가. 중국과의 무역은 불가피하며 관계는 강제된 우호라고 설명. 조언: 결혼은 인생에서 가장 중요한 결정 중 하나이며 벤저민 프랭클린의 조언(결혼 전 눈을 크게 뜨고, 결혼 후엔 반쯤 감으라)을 인용. 대통령이나 억만장자를 목표로 하기보다 낮은 목표를 세우고 성실함과 학습을 지속하라고 권고. 성공에는 운의 요소가 크다고 강조. 출연자 전망: 명시적인 주식·금리·환율 등 대상 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
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probably half my questions here are about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency well I could answer those very quickly stock market related interview video Punic Lima junco subscribe cut it or we like under the body I think it's perfectly a so my and even pause to think about though you know it's one thing to think that gold has a marvelous store value because man has no way of inventing a more gold or getting it very easily so it has the advantage of rarity believe me man is capable of somehow creating more Bitcoin they tell you they're not going to do it but they mean they're not gonna do it as they want to that's what they mean when they say they're not going to do it if they hear their rules and they can't do it don't believe them there's enough incentive bad things will happen it's bad people crazy bubble bad idea luring people into the concept of easy wealth without much insider work that's the last thing on earth you should think about if it worked it would be bad for you could try to do it again it's totally insane and by the way I've just laid out a wonderful life lesson for you give a whole lot of things a wide berth they don't exist you know crooks crazies egomaniacs people full of resentment people full of self-pity people who feel like victims there's a whole lot of things that aren't gonna work for you figure out what they are and avoid them like the plague and one of them is Bitcoin and the worst thing would happened if you won because then you do it again it's total insanity and it's so easy to simplify life from just all these things they're beneath you yeah I don't even know people are crowding Bitcoin no way address so Charlie my kind of people Charlie what I hear you saying is you're not going to be investing in Bitcoin is that that's fair I think you're severe so so let me move to a similarly maybe controversial topic I you know if you read the news recently but there's a lot of tax policy conversation going on both here in California and and nationally as well what you what's your thought on where this ends up in terms of the policy I think we will get a tax bill I think they will squeak it through and they'll make whatever adjustments they have to to get the last few votes I don't think it's a bit crazy to give this extra two thousand a year to all those people that make seventy thousand dollars a year and have a lot of children that strikes me as a it's good politics and probably good policy I also do not think it is crazy to reduce the corporate income tax on the C corporation and if you look at the world a lot of the places that it worked best including Singapore and so forth have that policy and may even have good macroeconomic consequences a lot of the people who are screaming about it and are so sure it won't work they may not be right it may actually work pretty well it causes the capital values of the companies to come up and there's a wealth effect from the increased market value of all the companies everybody recognizes there's an effect but people some people say it's small and some people say it's going to be large and I'll tell you what they all have in common none of them know it is not totally inconceivable with a lord pretty well and with so much of the world doing well with similar tax policy and of course the Democrats go berserk on this subject and but I think I think they're wrong it may actually help them yeah so I'm I don't I don't I'm not sure it'll work it may not but it's not totally crazy well there it reminds me of a piece of advice that they you've you've offered and given to me which is you know people often have a point of view and the danger in and having that point of view as you start to assume with certainty that you're right absolutely totally crazy and and and I think what your point of view is is you need to have a point I've just event here's a very important subject I'm thinking about all my life yes for my opinion I don't really know how Wells gonna work I don't think anybody else does either I think it'll work to some extent but how much I don't know now is it unfair well the corporations are by and large owned by a bunch of charitable endowments and by a bunch of pension plans and the whole world is going into a world where they're trying to have the business interests of the company support their huge pension obligations and bigger all the time China is trying to do exactly what the Republicans are China wants to have the main businesses in China owned more by the pension plans and the stocks to do well I don't think China is crazy to have that agreement I don't think you're Republicans are crazy either it could work pretty well and and and it's not just some evil thing that people are cooking up it's a disagreement between people and both sides who have hatreds and contempt for the other side they're wrong it's a disagreement on policy that ought to be civilized when I see Congress on my television set and the degree of hatred they have utter contempt I mean really serious way more than as usual it's it's evil to hate that much it's a mistake to hate that much that much hatred will turn it's always been true as anger comes in reason leaves it's a truism so do you want to adopt a political body of you or you're angry all the time if you do welcome to the house of misery and pretty low a worldly achievement to boot so that's what you want I you just if I found out how to do it behave like those people you see on television well the other thing that is both parties by the way the other thing that's true going back to any earlier comments is the different difference between a careerist mindset and a service or shareholder mindset where in politics we have the emergence of a careerist mindset that is shaping how people behave because they're trying to survive only that they have a groupthink just as the Moonies go crazy because they hang around together sort of our politicians yeah yeah do you want to go crazy is that what your ambition in life you start with some advantage just make yourself a violently believing politician on either side you'll turn your brain into cabbage you know you got one brain why would you want to turn it into cabbage so Charlie I've got a question here what's the new amazing technology that you're most excited about well I couldn't be get not not to get very excited about I think that technology changes the world and that reminds me the other thing if I ask you what was the biggest the worst single mistake and the work of Adam Smith you know I know I'd get oh I don't see everybody big eyes lighting up the biggest mistake of my work of Adam Smith he was totally right about markets and so on and the advantages of trade division of labor and so forth what he missed was how much the steady advance of Technology would advance wealth and standards of living he in the 1700s was living not to much differently from the way they lived in the Roman Empire and he just missed it but and there in fact had been huge improvements in technology but he just missed that he wasn't very technically minded and it was really stupid and now I asked you a harder question what was the worst mistake David Ricardo made I'll bet the Dean can't answer this question I'm not going to ask you to try I'll tell you the answer I'll tell you the answer David Ricardo missed he got the first-order consequences of trade perfectly right and it was not an obvious insight and it was a great achievement which is yeah but he didn't think about the second-order consequences here it wasn't mathematical enough to see and he wasn't mathematical to think what would happen in one country had way higher living standards in another like Adam Smith he missed them the main issue in a place like the United States is if you have an advanced nation and some other nation which is numerous but the people of any are better on average than yours in terms of their innate quality which i think is roughly true of China and and and they're in poverty living in caves and they're caught in a Malthusian trap and you got an advanced economy and you suddenly go into free trade what is going to happen is Ricardo proved it both sides are going to live better right but the people here that are assimilating all great economies of the world and sure they're gonna go away faster so you go up two percent a year and they go up twelve and pretty soon the other dominant nation in the world and you aren't well are you really better off well the answer is no and what car don't ever figure any of that stuff I'm so I'm telling you that so that you can fix your inadequate knowledge of Ricardo and and but one of the interesting problems of that is you can't understand Ricardo properly and thinking about the United States visa be free trade with China without thinking about the tragedy of the Commons because if we had the only nation in the world except for China we could say we won't trade with them we'll just leave them in their damned agricultural poverty and we'll just you know and we could probably have done that but well the whole rest of the world will trader they're gonna rise anyway so we had not any power to to hold back the the rise of China by not trading with them so we had to do what we did and once you do that now they're going to be a greater power than we are and the two of us are gonna be big enough so we can accomplish pretty gently anything we both want to do so we have to be friendly with China so you can imagine how I like Donald Trump complaining above the Chinese it's really still but it's a compulsory friendship it's a compulsory friendship you you believe out of your mind to do anything else why wouldn't you want to have an intimate friendly relationship but the biggest other power in the whole damn world particularly when they got what's atom bombs it's it's it's just nutty we have no alternative but to do this and when that happens you're gonna get a certain amount of misery at the people who are competing with the Chinese as they rise from poverty with trade and so forth that was inevitable it's not the follower once youíve evil Republicans at all of the poor that is just total balderdash it just happened and we didn't have all these choices so Charlie in Retton wrapping up we've got I don't know roughly 253 and her people in the room tonight and many of them looking at their futures their careers with many decades ahead of them I wish I had many decades I'd regs I'd trade some large numbers if I could just buy some life expectancy what as you look back on your life experience what's the what's the most important piece of advice that you would offer everyone in the room tonight as they look forward into their futures well they're a few obvious ones they're all ancient Ben Franklin has married just like the most important decision you have not your business career it'll do more for you good or bad than anything else Ben Franklin had the best advice ever given on marriage you said keep your eyes wide open before marriage and half-shut thereafter it's amazing how if you just get up every morning and keep plugging and have some discipline keep learning and it's amazing how it works out okay and I don't think I don't think it's wise to have an ambition to be president United States or a billionaire or something like that because the odds are too much against you much better to aim low I did not intend to get rich I wanted to get independent just overshot and and by the way while you're clapping some of the over shooting was accidental there's something there's a big you can be very deserving and very intelligent very disciplined but there's also a factor of luck that comes into this thing and the people will get the good outcomes that seem extraordinary though the people who have discipline and intelligence and good virtue plus a hell of a lot of luck why wouldn't the world work like that so you shouldn't give credit for the unusual a lot of the people my friend of mine said about a colleague of his in his fraternity he says old George was a duck sitting on a pond and they raised the level of the pond there are a lot of people that just look into the right place and rise and then and there are a lot of very eminent people who have many advantages and they've got one little flaw or one bit of bad luck of me they're mired in misery all their lives but that makes it interesting to have all this variation well Charlie on behalf of everyone here thank you your your wisdom I often say as an educational institution we not only can provide people with knowledge but the most important thing we can do is is give them wisdom and judgment and your comments I know for me and I expect for everyone in this room tonight have added to our wisdom in our judgment and also inspiring at the same time thank you very much you
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