저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
Rogers는 채권·부동산·주식 일부가 버블이며 전세계 과도한 통화 발행과 부채로 인해 역사상 최악의 약세장이 올 수 있다고 주장한다. 반면 원자재는 고점 대비 크게 하락(은 -60%, 설탕 -70%, 석유 -50%)해 상대적으로 싸다고 보고 선호 자산으로 꼽는다. 개별 주식은 중국·러시아·일본 등에 보유 중이나 적극 매수는 하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 부채 위기나 통화 붕괴 후 사회 불안과 전쟁 가능성도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
we've never seen anything like this in recorded history so be worried I'm not short I haven't sold short anything but uh I am certainly worried as I look around the world bonds are clearly in a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in the history of the world property in many places you go to Korea you go to New Zealand you go many places property certainly in a bubble stocks many stocks I mean Amazon goes up every day incent goes up every day Samsung goes up every day so some stocks performing a bubble but many stocks are still not up so it's not a complete bubble yet so there you have stocks property bonds all in bubbles are forming bubbles the only thing that's still cheap uh Commodities silver is down 60% from its all-time high sugar is down 70% from its all-time high oil is down 50% I mean these are bubble numbers when you talk about big big declines historic declines uh but with all the money being printed the the asset class in the world that I prefer at the moment would be Commodities because they're cheap when everything else is booming I do own stocks I do own stocks in places like China Russia Japan other places uh but I'm not rushing out to buy unless I find something really good well I I said I'm not short uh I know it's going to end badly I still if something comes good comes along that's good I'll buy it uh but Adam I know this is going to end very very very badly to repeat the better it gets the worse it's going to get when it comes to an end I would suspect that when it ends we're going to have the worst bare Market in my lifetime in 2008 we had a big bare Market problem because of too much debt Adam since 2000 debt 2008 the debt everywhere skyrocketed unbelievable even China has debt now China didn't have debt 20 years ago 15 years ago but even China has a lot of debt now who's going to save us the Chinese saved us in 2009 because they started had a lot of money saved for a rainy day and they started spending it they don't have a lot of money to spend now who's going to save it North Korea North Korea doesn't have much debt that's what I say but I don't think they have enough to enough to save us because I don't think they have money saved for a rainy day like the Chinese do you do you have greater confidence one way or the other if this is going to end in a a debt crisis or runaway money printing or or or maybe both how do you see it well first of all I have no confidence in them you said they the other people you were talking about have confidence that they are going to SA are going to save us I have no confidence in they whoever they are I will say Adam it's a good time to be old in America because I don't have to pay for all of this when it comes to an end my children oh my gosh the problems my children are going to run into in their lifetimes because of what these girl clowns are doing now so I say it's good to be old um but you're right it's going to end someday and it's going to badly when it when it ends uh you you said either currency collapse or economic collapse you can have both you know you can have one and then it leads to another uh in the 30s we had both for instance around the world and then we had War it's shooting war and that's the bad the really bad news is often in history when you have really really bad times especially worldwide it winds up in shooting Wars it soly did after the 30s um so I it's not it's not good new I don't see good news I repeat that in 2008 and N we had horrible problems with too much debt since then the debt has gone through the roof by unbelievable amounts and I know that's going to end badly if we know what's going on we'll get worried and if we get worried we'll probably get prepared then we might survive some people came out of the 30s very rich most didn't most lost huge amounts of money but in 2007 Iceland went bankrupt nobody cared and a few months later Ireland went bankrupt some noticed few months later Bear Sterns went back now we're starting to notice and then Black Rock went went bankrupt in the big Bank in England and then eventually Leman Brothers went well then it's on the evening news then everybody knows so my point is these things snowball and they start where we're not looking and it may have already started for all I know I've seen some small places having problems um but as I say I'm not selling short yet um because I I know how much money these guys can print uh and what I would suspect is going to happen Adam is somewhere along the line next month stocks go down in lots of places well then they're going to really panic because they want to keep their jobs and so they're going to print even more money and so we'll have a rally we have a rally but I would suspect that that would be the last rally uh because it's only so much I mean eventually the market say wait a minute guys we've seen this movie before we know how it ends we don't care what how much money you print um do you worry at all about the societal implications about what's going on here absolutely history is pretty clear that when you have bad times there is usually social unrest people aren't happy uh and if we do in fact have the worst bare Market of my lifetime which I don't see how we can avoid uh if and when that comes they're going to be a lot of very very unhappy and angry people and one difference in now in the past is people really get angry now they think that you can't do that to me um you know in this in the 30s people were a little more disciplined a little more understanding of what was going on on in the world they weren't happy there were protests there were there was some VI not much violence in the US anyway since that's what we're talking about but people were a bit more accepting of the system no Adam look out the window nobody accepts anything now you can't do that to me it's your fault it's not my fault so no we're certainly going to have social unrest certainly in the US but in other countries as well you you find out what's going on if you do you'll get worried and then you'll get prepared because Adam it's very clear this history shows that when things go really wrong what history shows first of all politicians blame foreigners they always blame the foreigners because that's easy to do but then they it also leads to unhappy people and social unrest I mean one of the I guess the main lesson of History out of is people don't learn the lessons of history I mean I could sit here and tell you all day I we had a president recently who either didn't know history or thought he was smarter than history and it didn't matter well I know history smarter than I am and I know it matters and I know it always goes that way that people get very unhappy and they look for scapegoats and then it's not good they've already got into trillions which you and I never could have conceived of most people could not have conceived of but they don't want to stop so I'm wondering what's after trillions we're going to learn new languages new vocabulary here in the next year or two if they keep going the way they're going every nearly every government every Central Bank in the world has been printing huge amounts of money and borrowing and spending huge amounts of money it's never happened like this in the history of the world never in recorded history we seen so much excess I'll call it excess they they think it's normal they think it's fine uh and this has caused many markets to go up a lot you know if you want to build a bridge it takes a long time but if you want to invest and you have a lot of money floating around you just go on the internet and in five seconds you can be you can invest in anything you want to and that's what's been happening and that's what's continuing to happen it there might be signs that's beginning to slow down the Chinese seem to be cutting back some not a lot well not a lot but they're cutting back they're not expanding other countries say they're cutting back and the US says oh maybe we should cut back some someday uh but in the meantime there's gigantic amounts of money floating around it's going into markets it's going into the real economy as well uh it's artificial if you see some of the things that you know the shipping business is just unbelievably hot right now because there's so much money floating around the the bad news is these things always end and the better they get the worse they get when they end
Comments 0