저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 달리오는 인플레이션과 지정학적 충돌이 커지는 스태그플레이션 환경에 대비해 자산을 광범위하게 분산하고, 현금 비중을 줄이는 것이 중요하다고 주장한다. 거시 환경: 부채와 신용 공급·수요의 불균형으로 스태그플레이션 성격의 환경으로 이동하고 있으며, 정치적 요인(경제보다 이념 중심의 자원 배분)이 가장 중요한 변수라고 본다. 주식 시장: 금리 비용 상승으로 기업 자기자본수익률과 부채 비용의 격차가 좁아지며 주식에 압박이 가해지고 있다. 40년 강세장이 끝나며 기술주는 닷컴·니프티50 때처럼 크게 하락할 수 있다고 봤다(캐시우드 펀드 75% 하락 언급). 시기 전망: 1970년대와 가장 유사한 적응기의 초입이며, 2022년 미국 선거가 경제와 시장에 큰 영향을 줄 것이라고 봤다. 포트폴리오 전략: '현금은 쓰레기'라고 강조. 성장·인플레이션 4분면 박스에서 전통적 60/40 포트폴리오는 상승 인플레이션 구간에 가장 취약하므로, 해당 사분면(인플레이션 상승)의 자산 비중을 늘리면 위험을 줄이고 수익률을 높일 수 있다고 주장. 자산 선호: 금융 자산 비중은 줄이고 인플레이션 대응 자산을 늘리며, 인도 등 신흥 아시아와 정치적 리스크가 낮은 중립 국가에 분산 투자할 것을 권했다. 리스크: 정부의 자본시장·외환 통제 가능성을 경계하라고 언급. 언급 종목: 개별 종목 예측은 없음(테슬라·트위터 인수 등 사례 언급만). 출연자 전망: 단기 가격 수치 예측은 제시하지 않았고, 장기 구조적 전환과 분산·롱숏 전략을 강조.
다듬은 글
there are three big things that are happening in my lifetime the first is um the amount of um uh decoration and monetization of that and how it's carrying through the system the second is the amount of uh internal um political social economic uh conflict that is now going on and um and the third is uh the rising of a great power um to challenge uh the existing world order in the existing well-powered china and the geopolitical um in which uh you know when uh i was born 1949 and uh five four years after the new world water began in 45 and the united states of course was a much more dominant country than had 80 percent of the world's gold 50 of the world's economy the only the monopoly on military power because of nuclear and all of that and it's relative it's declined on a relative basis and that led me to do research um which i um uh needed to do the five last 500 years of research to follow i wanted to study the rise and decline of currencies reserve currencies and their empires that i went back and in doing that um i also discovered um that their uh acts of nature um actually had bigger effects than the first three of those or even with the wars um because of droughts floods and um pandemics i think that's a factor and then number five was the greatest of course is man's capacity to adapt and invent uh because in one way or another they um if you look at that per capita income rises living standards rise over periods of time but these big cycles and these big events are dominant so those are i think almost everything could fall into those five categories you know um and uh so that's how i look at it i think that um we're in a period um in which there's a supply and demand for debt and credit um that is because one man's debts are on the man's uh assets and there's a supply demand for credit um that is um having an effect on um making us move into a stagflation kind of environment uh in other words the trade-offs between the two will become more difficult but i think that um number two influence the political um is the most important um what i mean by that is um i think we we have been used to being in an environment um in which economics uh ruled you know you'd have a global economy and those who could produce items more efficiently or cheaper would get the business and they would raise their living standards and other places you know this so it's a it was a global competition largely by run by economic considerations and resources would shift that way i think we're now in um that doesn't exist as much that way and there's been a transition to um an ideological allocation of of resources and so on such as you know the um acquisition by elon musk of twitter it's not a financial transaction as much as it is uh for the purpose uh it'll have controls and when we have the conflicts such as with disney and desantis in florida and those political ideologies um it's the belief that economics has got to fall within that agenda that'll have very big implications i think um so when we look at the returns of equities um and we look at the well-being of companies um you see that um the cost of interest relative to the expected returns of equities um creates a squeeze on equities create changes the economics a lot of borrowing has been done at much lower interest rates and so on the return on equity for a company in the versus the return um uh the cost of that of debt um is changing and all of those things are are changing and like all bubbles or paradigm shifts the mentality that uh did exist we don't have to worry about inflation cash is a safe place and so on gets a shock there's a punch in the face there's been a 40-year bull market and there's a punch in the face to the our investors we're going through it as jeremy describes and um when that happens um things that were um never supposed to happen because everybody believes in the tech companies and that which is the same as the nifty 50 or the um um the dot-com companies they get hammered right so like you say 75 percent decline in kathy woods funds and so so and so forth that um causes the adaptation so we're in the beginning of that adaptation that is most similar i think to the 1970s period um and um it becomes financial um and uh so i think um as we are in we'll come to the 2022 elections um and and that'll have economics and markets has a big impact so we'll be in the 2022 elections um it'll be very important to not only diversify well but to be able to be long and short different assets in order to perform well in in that environment my main things are um first um cash is trash and we know that the typical well portfolio is not well balanced with its greatest vulnerability being in that upper right quadrant in our box which is the inflation box and we know that we're in that environment so from a starting point of view i would encourage all investors to look at that those four quadrant box that box that we have rising inflation falling inflation rising um real growth relative to discounted falling real growth relative to discounted and see what the biases are in those portfolios i believe that now you can simultaneously reduce risk and raise returns reduce risk of that portfolio by having more in that upper right quadrant rising inflation and you will reduce your risk because if you look at your portfolio typical investors portfolio that is the environment that it is missing so i want when i'm picking those locations i i want to be out of the finance of those those that instruments largely minimized on the on the financials the inflation edge assets well diversified look to parts of the world that are not as plagued with this um so emerging asia is very interesting india is interesting so diversify look at neutral countries during that period of time watch out for um government controls on capital markets because that's the logical next step history has shown that watch out for foreign exchange controls could be watch out uh for those things so those are the themes that um i think are most important and will be most important in investing
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