저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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이 영상은 2006년 Wall Street Confidential 방송 대담 자막(자동인식, 오타 많음)으로, 짐 크레이머가 과거 헤지펀드 운용 경험을 회고하며 시장을 조작하는 '트릭'을 설명하는 내용이다. 결론: 발언의 핵심은 주가 방향 예측이 아니라 과거 불법적 시세조종 관행에 대한 고백성 설명이다. 선물 조작: 헤지펀드 매도 포지션 시 선물을 밀어 올린 뒤 실수요가 들어오면 하락을 유도하는 방식을 설명했고, 소액 자본(약 500만~1000만 달러)으로도 가능하다고 주장했다. 리서치 인모션(RIM): 하락 베팅 시 RIM을 대량 매도 주문으로 눌러 부정적 인식을 만들고, 기관 롱 포지션을 흔드는 방식을 언급했다. 발언자는 이를 공정공시 위반 가능성이 있는 행위로 인정했다. 애플: 베리즌 등 유통사 관계자 발언을 빌린 루머 유포, 1월 80 풋옵션 대량 매수로 악재 기대감 조성 등 시장 심리 조작 사례를 설명했다. 휴대폰 시장 가격담합 가능성: 통신사 간 경쟁이 치열하고 일부 업체가 규제기관을 의식한다는 취지의 발언이 있었다. 연준·채권: 고용 등 지표 발표 후 채권 시장 반응을 가리는 루머 활용 가능성을 언급했으나, 금리 방향에 대한 명확한 전망은 없다. 포드(Ford): 투자은행 거래 관계로 인해 부정적 보도가 억제될 수 있다고 언급했다. 결산 목표: 발언자는 2006년 말 S&P 등 지수가 약 1260(또는 1460 등 자막상 불명확) 수준을 예측했다고 회상했으나, 자막 오류로 수치 확인이 어렵다. 2007년 전망은 구체적으로 제시되지 않았다. 리스크 및 경고: 발언자 본인도 이러한 행위가 불법일 수 있음을 인정했으며, 시장 구조상 실제 펀더멘털보다 조작 메커니즘이 중요하다고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
welcome to wall street confidential i'm erin task joined again by jim kramer jim welcome good to see you thanks for being here uh there's a lot of economic data today but i want to talk about something else first again today we have the misdirection from the future as the future is pointing up market and as of right now sucks it down again is this just because it's the holiday period that we're seeing this you know a lot of times when i was short at my hedge fund and i was positioned short meaning i needed it down uh i would uh create a um a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures it doesn't take much money uh similarly if uh or if i were long and i would want to make things a little bit rosy i would go in and take a bunch of stocks and make sure that they are they're higher you know maybe commit five million in capital to do it and i could affect it uh what you're seeing now is maybe it probably is bigger market now maybe you need 10 million capital to knock this stuff down but it's a fun game and it's a lucrative game and you you can move it up and then fade it that's all often creates a very negative feel so let's say you take a longer term view intraday and you say listen i'm going to boost the futures and then when the real sellers come in real market comes in they're going to knock it down it's going to create a negative negative view that's a strategy very worth doing when you're va when you're valued on a day-to-day basis and i would encourage anyone who's in the hedge fund game to do it because it's legal right and it uh it's a very quick way to make money and very satisfying okay um well by the way no one else in the world would ever admit that but i could care that's right and you can say that here i can't i'm not gonna say it on tv um well i don't really know there's so many more hedge funds today than when you were managing your headphones right do you think that that does that exacerbate the moves or does it make it well you know the hedge funds are positioned long short okay not just long like mutual funds so it's really vital these next six days because of your payday you really got to control the market you can't let it lift when you get a research in motion it's really important to use a lot of your firepower to knock that down because it's the fulcrum of the market today so let's say i were uh i was short what i would do is i would hit a lot of guys with rim now you can't ferment that's a violation of ferment yeah you can't foment you can't create a yourself an impression that a stock's down but you do it anyway because the sec doesn't understand it so yeah i mean it's that's the only sense that i would say this is illegal but a hedge fund that's not up a lot really has to do a lot now to save itself so um this is different from what i was talking about the beginning where i would be buying the queues and stuff this is actually just a blatantly illegal but when you have six days and your company may be in doubt because you're down i think it's really important to ferment uh if i were one of these guys for men and oppression that research in motion isn't any good because research in motion is the key so you know you would you would hit this guy and that guy when you would see an offering when you see a guy's bidding you'd wipe out that guy very quickly what i used to do um was called if i wanted to go higher i would taken bid taking bid taking bid um and um if i wanted galore i hit an offer hitting off or hitting offer and i could get a stock like rim for maybe that might cost me 15 20 million annie to knock rim down but it would be fabulous because it would leaker all the longs who are also keying on research in motion so let's see what's going on today yeah we're seeing that that's you know again when your company's in a survival mode it's really important to defeat research in motion and get the pazani's to the world and people talking about it as if there's something wrong with rim then you would call the journal and you get the bozo reporter and research in motion and you would feed that there's a palm's got a killer it's going to give away these are all the things you must do on a day like today and if you're not doing it maybe you shouldn't be in the game okay another stock that a lot of people are focused on right now seems to be apple yeah apple's very important to spread the rumor that um that both uh verizon and bel and decided they don't like the phone right it's a very easy one to do because it's also you want to spread the rumor that it's not going to be ready for macworld and this is very easy because the people who write about apple want that story and you can claim that it's credible because you spoke to someone at apple because apple isn't and it doesn't right they're not going to comment so it's really an ideal short and i would again if i were a short apple i would be working very hard today to get that and the way you would do that is you pick up the phone you call six trading desk and say listen i just got the phone with my contact to verizon he has already said listen we're not we're a lucky g house we're a samsung house we we're a motoroll house there's no room for apple they want too much we're not going to let them in this is not we're not going to let them do what they did to music and you know i think that's a very effective way to keep a stock down right i might also by the way because the stock at 80 485 a little bit of capital you go buy some january 80 puts that makes it look like there's going to be something going on so maybe you give morgan in order to buy a thousand jan80 puts then you go position limit with uh you know uh you use a hat firm that doesn't know what the heck it's doing maybe you go to ubs for puts and you just kind of create an image that there's going to be news next week and that's going to frighten everybody and you they all go out and say large footballer ubs then they call pazani again you have to use those guys and say listen i'm about you know i see a big buyer puts and i'm told that it's like it's sac you would do that too um and these are all uh what's really going on under the market that you don't see right nobody else talked about but what's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view right that it's important to create a new truth to develop a fiction and um the fiction is developed by almost anybody who's down like two percent up six percent here you can't take any chances you can't have the market up any more than it is if you're up six because starting jan two you'll have all your money come out so what would you do if you're in that situation and you feel like you're desperate is that you would do these actions so you're talking about the mechanics of the market yeah the actually much more important than fundamentals okay well but in terms of the fundamentals you've been writing about how you can think about the fundamentals research emotion just blew out the quarter right but look what people can do i mean that's a fabulous thing the great thing about the market is there's nothing to do with the actual stocks right now look over maybe two weeks from now the buyers will come to their senses and realize that everything that they heard was a lie but then again fannie mae lied about the earnings for six billion dollars right right right it's just fiction and fiction and fiction and i think it's important for people to recognize that the way that the market really works is to is to have that nexus of of hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders that can push it down then leak it to the press um and then get it on cnbc that's also very important and then you have a kind of a vicious cycle down right it's a pretty good game and it can be played you pay for percent or two right and then you get long before mac world and the expectation that the iphone is going to be right and then you go back to the long side interesting that you know and there's a case where i would say the january 80 puts can be justified because after i've knocked the stock down to 80 i can buy a lot of common and then you play it right in the macro where they'll probably introduce the phone and verizon's going to take it okay well maybe the fundamentals don't matter but let's talk about the fact that what what wall street confidential is yes is is not giving you the party line oh here's the one by the way um the i i i spoke that with the phone i hear the phones are good and um verizon might take it and as a matter of fact the research in motion sellers they i don't think they know what they're talking about you know but you've been writing about the sell market cell phone market you think is you don't want to be involved the problem with the cell phone market frankly is that these guys are all killing each other you know right someone has to take a dive motorola milk you have to get in a room and just fix price they've been reluctant to do that because of the various justice departments and because they actually go right now well that hasn't stopped a lot of other companies this is true this seems to be a case where they seem to be directly worried about the authorities it's almost as if they have a lawyer that that matters on like say the bristol meyers lures and you know what eventually happens is the shareholders demand that you get phony lawyers and you sit in the room and it'll happen soon real quick the fed the numbers out today weaker than expected oh so what the fed has obviously got to cut but again you call it you call um the various guys who cover the bonds and you say ignore the bond action what's really happened is the fed is very frightened about then you gin up the number that they're really frightened about the fed is actually um desperate to try to figure out uh you know how quickly they have to cut without looking like dopes that they that they raised because they've been talking about they're worried about inflation and all this you don't want to raise in may and then cut in in january look like mexico for heaven's sake i mean this is like a distinguished group of people who went to really good schools right these are smart guys yeah they don't want to look like dogs but we were talking earlier in the week you said you think it would be some sort of crisis possibly ford being a trigger well you know ford went and did all that you know they pledged all this investment banking to all these guys so now that they're very reluctant to say negative things it makes it much tougher for the ford story to play out i mean the amount of business that ford has to do ford may be the big client of 2007.
so if i were in the corporate finance room i would say listen to the to the research guy i said listen you know i spoke with mulely i actually have the inside the plan works so then you're the research guy and said oh man what do i do um it's bonus time i'm not going to be a total idiot spitzer's going to albany let's get back in the game right i think that's important is it possible because a year ago at this time a lot of people were saying gm's about to go bankrupt and of course the stock's up 50 some odd percent well they're 40 that stopped their gm the difference between ford and gm was the jam's balance sheet was never really it turned out wasn't that bad four's balance sheet's pathetic and you know that because they're willing to screw over the common for the bond so that's kind of if it weren't for it if this were um qualcomm we'd be saying qualcomm is desperate you know but no it's and this is our country that's right and jim cramer again you know what i'm trying to go for in the wall street confidential and i'm not saying you're sending me i have to talk about what it's like at my hedge fund okay because and what other hedge funds do because the difference is is that if this is an intraday show and you need to know what's going what i know is going on now we stepped back research in motion was a real blowout quarter it was a really good quarter and i was quite surprised how strong the margins were it looks like the other guys have really dropped out it's a terrific story should it be up six yeah i think so but you know look where we are it's friday you know you got five more days to make your quarter can you really risk having rim up this much i don't think you can okay and they're not and if i'm correct you're off next week yes okay and i am as well so we'll be back in 2000 i'm hoping that we get that we finished the year at 1260 because that's at 12 460.
because that's what i said with the beginning of the year was now yesterday we came in and we were 20 points away from what i predicted you know i want to nail it do you have a forecast for 2007 yeah um but i'm not and it comes out it's over a series of five days so people have to go to realmoney.com check it out on realmoney.com and jim thanks very much for being here i'm erin task stay tuned for more of the street.com tv
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