저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 Daily Journal을 통해 알리바바 주식을 약 30만주 추가 매수해 보유량을 약 60만주로 두 배 늘렸다는 소식을 중심으로, 중국 거시 여건과 알리바바 기업가치를 점검한 영상. 멍거의 매수 단가는 약 118달러로 당시 주가(약 121~130달러)보다 낮아 평가이익 상태라고 설명. 중국 규제 리스크로 텐센트·알리바바·JD·빌빌리 등에 과징금이 부과된 사례와, 헝다 등 부동산·금융 기업 부실이 중국 경기 하방 압력으로 이어질 수 있다는 우려를 언급. 진행자는 성장률 약 1.6%, 1년차 잉여현금흐름 약 278억달러, 순현금 약 276억달러, 발행주식 약 27.1억주 등을 가정한 간이 DCF로 주당 내재가치를 약 211달러로 추정, 130달러 대비 30~50% 안전마진이 있다고 주장. 다만 해당 DCF는 10년간 1.6% 성장률 등 강한 가정에 의존하며 정확하지 않을 수 있다고 본인도 인정하고, 중국 정부 규제로 저평가가 지속될지는 불확실하다고 결론.
다듬은 글
hey youtube welcome back to my financial focus in this video i'm going to be talking about some of the recent moves that charlie munger has made in regards to alibaba i'm going to be talking about some of the overall macroeconomic factors that are affecting china's economy as a whole right now and how that might play into affecting alibaba in the future and lastly i'm going to do a quick discounted cash flow analysis to figure out if buying into alibaba at the current share price makes sense from a value investing perspective taking into consideration the current financial health of alibaba so thanks in advance for leaving a like and let's get right into it so right here in this article they point out that charlie munger is teaching the market a lesson again in that he doubled his stake in alibaba despite the fact that shares of alibaba ended the year 50 down from where they started and if we scroll down right here we can see that he doubled his position by almost 100 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 and in particular if we scroll down here we can see the exact amount that he bought in alibaba we see the daily journal corporation which is the corporation that he manages acquired 300 000 shares of alibaba in the fourth quarter effectively doubling its previous position size of around 300 000 to what is now 600 and 2 000 shares of alibaba the investment based on the share price is about 121 dollars per share that's what it's estimated to be right now so his total stake in alibaba is estimated to be valued at around 73 million dollars and we can see right here from this chart which shows charlie munger's positions in the daily journal corporation that his positions are made up of five specific positions bank of america wells fargo us bancorp pasco and then also alibaba and we can see that he added 99.32 to his position in the fourth quarter of 2021 he's holding about 600 000 shares right now which makes about 27 of his portfolio and the reported average cost per share for his position comes out to be about 118 dollars per share and the current price of alibaba as of these screenshot from this chart was 121 dollars per share and it's actually increased since then up to 130 dollars per share so if this information is to be believed and if it's factual that means that charlie munger is currently up on his overall alibaba position and he definitely bought at the one year low of around 108 dollars per share and that was how he was able to bring his cost per share down solo for his position and then right here they talk about the value that charlie munger might see in alibaba in all honesty he's according to this article potentially looking at alibaba in the sense that the pricing of their share price is just an overreaction from the emotions of the overall market towards alibaba and also the macroeconomic factors in china that are a little uncertain at the moment he might think that the market is no longer acting rationally in regards to the future prospects for alibaba and that the share price of alibaba might be discounted too cheaply at the moment intrinsically alibaba is still one of the largest ecommerce platforms in the world with more than 1.2 billion active accounts and that could honestly increase to 1.5 billion in the future and if we scroll all the way down here to the next couple of paragraphs we see that the main two risks that this article points out in regards to the future prospects of alibaba is the strengthening state control by the chinese communist party towards alibaba and other tech stocks and tech businesses in china and then also the lower profitability that could potentially come from macroeconomic factors for alibaba in the future these two things are definitely uncertain at the moment and they might affect how investors look at alibaba in the future maybe not charlie hunger but maybe some other investors might look at it a little bit differently and then the final thoughts from this article point out that long term charlie munger seems to be very bullish on alibaba he's doubling down on his position and the potential for the earnings per share for alibaba to grow into the future is decent because the intrinsic value of alibaba is still very strong relative to their current share price in the next article it points out that charlie munger is not the only investor that is bullish on alibaba but that there are other investors too like sam lay cornu i don't know if i'm pronouncing that right but this guy is essentially saying that from his perspective he sees the current lockdowns in china potentially adding some sort of a boom to alibaba's business being that it is an e-commerce business and if people are locked at home then they're going to be shopping online which might result in an increase in revenues for alibaba but again to that point there are some macro economic factors that could be adding downward pressure on alibaba's business and their share price going into the future for instance recently this article came out about three days ago and it points out that chinese market regulators were fining tencent alibaba and other tech bet businesses recently in specifics we can see that they find 10 cent the heaviest with about a 4.5 million yuan fine which equates to about 710 000 us dollars and that came out to i believe it was nine deals which were 500 000 yuan per deal so 4.5 million in total for 10 cent alibaba was fined for two deals and then also jd.com and billy billy were also fired not fired they were also fined for some things that happened in the past as well as recently which i mean they've been applying a lot of pressure to alibaba and other tech stocks in the past alibaba got hit with that record fine in april i believe it was where they got fined about two billion dollars so i mean if they continue to get fined like this macroeconomic pressures like this could add a lot of downward pressure to the future prospects for alibaba and lastly we see right here in this article they're pointing out how evergrand which is one of the largest businesses in china they're in their real estate sector their financial sector their technology sector and so if evergrand struggles that could cause a lot of other macroeconomic downward pressure on china's whole economy and we can see right here that the chinese estate posted a 190 million dollar loss to a disposal of evergrand shares in china and so obviously evergrand right now is struggling to continue to make bond payments and a lot of people who are invested in evergrand not only by buying up bonds but also in just equity shares overall in evergrand are experiencing losses at the moment and that could obviously have major trickle-down effects to the entire economy as a whole which also could bring down alibaba's share price since alibaba is also a chinese company right here i just want to point out alibaba's stock performance over the last year and we can see right here that this is when alibaba or not alibaba but this is when charlie munger doubled his stake the first time in about october 4th in 2021 and we can see that alibaba's share price rallied quite a bit during that time and then recently he doubled his stake again and the share price of alibaba has started to increase again i don't know if it'll increase as much as it did the first time right here in october 4th when he doubled his position and news came out that the daily journal did that the first time around the share price of alibaba increased from 130 dollars per share to 177 dollars per share and i don't know if it will increase as much now but as of right now it does seem to be on the upward trend but we can see right here that a couple of weeks after charlie munger posted that he had doubled his position alibaba came out with the earnings report which disappointed a lot of investors and that sent alibaba's share price tumbling and it was right around here that charlie munger probably added more to his position and doubled his position again and then this is when the report came out that he did so and that started to send the share price upwards so i don't know if in the future if the earnings report of alibaba is going to send the share price flying downward again and then if charlie munger's just going to buy more in the future but time will tell in regards to that the last thing that i want to do is point out this little discounted cash flow analysis that i did very quickly and these growth rates i got from yahoo finance just by going to the analysis tab for alibaba and we can see that it came out to about 1.6 percent and then for the other metrics like for the year one free cash flow i got that from trading view right here it came out to about 27.82 billion dollars the net cash minus net debt i got that from the statistics tab in yahoo finance just by going down here wait no not the statistics tab i think it was the sorry my computer's lagging i don't know why but right here we can see that for their balance sheet metrics total cash came out to be about 450 billion total debt was about 180 billion and so the total cash right now on their balance sheet for this cash flow analysis came out to be about 276 billion dollars and then their shares outstanding come out to be about 2.71 billion shares as we can see right here and so after plugging in these metrics we see that the intrinsic value per share for alibaba at the moment comes out to be about 211 dollars per share based on these current metrics including this 1 growth rate over the next 10 years which is obviously a pretty heavy assumption and it may not be completely accurate but this model is just something that we can reference but despite that it obviously may not be totally perfect but if these metrics are to be believed then the intrinsic value per share for alibaba is definitely putting alibaba at a heavy undervaluation at the moment because the current share price is 130 per share but the discounted cash flow model based on the businesses current underlying financial health is telling us that the intrinsic value per share comes out to be about 211 dollars per share and so if anyone was to buy into alibaba at the moment they would be buying at about a 30 percent to a 50 margin of safety at 130 dollars per share so that means that right now alibaba could be presenting a good buying opportunity but also because of the uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic conditions in china it's uncertain whether or not the underlying financial health of alibaba is enough to prop up the share price in the future if they continue to get fined and regulated by the ccp but i would definitely definitely love to know what everybody watching this video thinks about alibaba if they think that the share price will increase or decrease in the future or if they think that these growth rates for this discounted cash flow analysis is accurate or if alibaba is going to grow faster into the future definitely let me know in the comments section below like subscribe to the channel all that good stuff and i'll see everyone in the next video
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