저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 파이어아이는 실적 가이던스 하향으로 시간외 약 14% 급락, AMD는 가이던스가 다소 약해 소폭 하락 중이며 추가 상승 여력에 대해서는 의견이 엇갈림. 파이어아이: 분기 적자였으나 매출은 컨센서스 부합. 주가 하락의 핵심은 3분기 및 연간 실적 전망 하향. 구독형 모델 전환 과정에서 클라우드 호스팅 비용과 신규 사업 수수료가 예상보다 크게 늘어 매출총이익률과 영업이익률이 훼손됨. 파이어아이 밸류에이션: 패널은 내년 실적 기준 약 50배 수준 주가수익비율은 과도하다고 지적. 이번 가이던스 하향으로 프리미엄을 받을 이유가 약하다는 평가. 사이버보안 업종 비교: 크라우드스트라이크가 업계 주도주로 부상했다는 시각이 나왔고, 시스코는 엔터프라이즈 쪽에서 경쟁에 가장 잘 대비된 기업으로 언급됨. 사이버아크·크라우드스트라이크·포티넷은 시간외 거래에서 뚜렷한 반응이 없었음. 기술적 분석: 파이어아이는 최근 2주 약 14~16% 반등 후 하락 추세의 이동평균선에서 저항을 받아 약한 반등으로 평가. 향후 사이버아크 등 주도주가 이 하락에 동조할지가 관건이라는 의견. AMD: 실적은 대체로 부합했으나 가이던스가 다소 약함. 리사 수 CEO는 라이젠·라데온 신제품 출시로 하반기 성장 기대를 강조. 다만 반도체 맞춤형 칩(세미커스텀) 주문 둔화를 반영해 연간 매출 성장 전망을 6% 이상에서 약 5%(중간 한 자릿수)로 하향. 마진은 약 43%로 시장 예상보다 나을 것으로 봄. AMD 주가 흐름: 지난 분기 대비 23% 상승, 연초 이후 83% 상승으로 이미 선반영된 상태. 52주 신고가 대비 약 3% 아래로 차익실현 가능성 언급. AMD 패널 전망: 한 패널은 실적 자체가 재난 수준은 아니고 기대치가 과열됐던 것이라 조정은 과도하다고 봄. 52주 이동평균선(약 30달러) 부근 지지를 확인하고 약세 시 비중 확대가 합리적이라는 의견. 다른 패널은 이 가격대 추격 매수는 피해야 한다는 입장이었음. 게임 콘솔용 칩 약세 원인이 업황 탓인지 점유율 문제인지는 확인이 필요하다는 지적. 종합: 두 종목 모두 기대치 조정 국면이며, 파이어아이는 밸류에이션 부담과 마진 훼손, AMD는 선반영 후 가이던스 하향에 따른 단기 조정으로 정리됨.
다듬은 글
two big movers on her radar in the after our session fireEye and AMD both down big we've got full team coverage on both the name for the standing by an AMD but let's begin with Rahel Solomon and fire eyes big drop Rahel so the cybersecurity firm really getting pummeled and after hours right now down more than fourteen percent the last time I checked but results were mixed so it was a surprise quarterly loss but revenues were in line with expectations what we're seeing here though is investors react to guidance after the company lowered its third quarter and full year projections the company's CFO saying in part that they were encouraged by their strong Billings performance in the second quarter especially an increase in new business sales and growth in our platform cloud subscription and managed services category but adding that they also resulted in a greater than expected increase in expenses related to cloud hosting and commissions on new business which negatively impacted our gross and operating margins so Melissa fireEye has been moving to it more of a subscription-based model to try to increase their top-line and profit margins traditionally though it's old hardware boxes to detect software threat so essentially what they're saying is as they move to this new model they're also incurring greater expenses and now lowering their guidance because of it and again that's soft down and after-hours about thirteen point six percent Melissa let's go back to you alright Rahul thank you for how solomon back at headquarters how do these stocks look it's a very mix yeah mechag in terms of the sector overall when you take a look at the various cyber stocks now when you look at a name like a fire I versus a cyber arc you're looking at two very different pictures now I think the question is going to be is fire IR read into some of these other names that have been a lot better when you look at fire I rally 14 to 16 over the last couple weeks it failed exactly where it should have at the downward sloping toward a moving average so a weak rally in a weak trend getting turned away there but I think the big test is gonna be how does a cyber arc respond to this how does a fortunate respond to this they've been the leaders in the group is this idiosyncratic or is this something more serious we'll find out yeah so far doesn't look like much after-hours reaction in cyber arc and CrowdStrike in fort net either guy well I mean if you want to sort of go another step forward Palo Alto said it had a nice run off for $200 but it still isn't really close to the highest we made probably earlier this year in terms of fire I real quick it's all about valuation I mean you look at this now with the lowered guidance you say wait a second how is this stock trading at close 50 times next year's numbers it probably doesn't deserve that especially now as she just mentioned gross margins and operating margins are getting whacked that's not a particularly good sign I just sort of have this feeling that CrowdStrike is the it girl that in the space that that fire I used to be we have to trade at and you know Cisco I mean I actually think if you want to buy a cybersecurity stock by Cisco they're right and on the enterprise that is the company that's best prepared to win this battle with that competition let's get to AMD that sock is off it's after hours loads birthing students got more on this versa results are pretty much in line the guidance is a bit soft and that is what the street seems to be looking for in the release Lisa sue the CEO says that they appear to be a significant inflection point they've launched these new risin and Radeon chips and she says they are well positioned for significant growth in the second half that said when they talk about the guidance they are expecting lower than expected or at least than what they have projected semi-custom chip orders as a result they are lowering their guidance a bit they're now looking at the guidance for growth through full year to be in the mid single digits about 5% growth this Crete had them a little bit more than 6% growth but they are saying that their margins are going to be a little bit stronger than what the street we're looking at at about 43 percent or so one of the things you have to look at this stock is that it was kind of priced to perfection it gained 23 percent just from the last quarter and it is up 83 percent year-to-date before what we're seeing here this afternoon making it the second-best chip performer in the group and it is also within about 3% of a new 52 week high so you're likely to see some profit taking the call is about to get under way at 5:30 Eastern Time here a lot of questions about what exactly they're seeing in terms of softness thank you keep us posted Bertha thank you to her point about price to perfection there are great expectations that this is a name that is gaining significant share from Intel the the expectations were high in two am deed not so high for Intel and look what we got I I think that's overdone at this point again you've had sizeable ramps in in comps a toss to this company into these numbers we know there's new products we know there's been execution we know that there was competition on Intel that no one thought was there from AMD at this point I don't think there's any surprise I think the streak caught up to itself and and no I don't I wouldn't chase this at all the stock was 16 bucks on Christmas Eve traded 3435 a couple days ago I think this is a pause in a very good trend look we're a bounce after hours I've found support near 30 that's the 50-day average I think that's a good level to be adding exposure here it's a good chart in maybe the best group I would be adding on any weakness yeah I don't think the quarter I mean I don't think guidance was that disastrous I just think - everybody's pointed ran a little too far maybe too fast but I got to taste something it seems to be catching up some steam was up 1% during the day I mean it wouldn't surprise me given what we've seen and given this tape if this stock actually traded higher tomorrow that's something to watch I think really wondering they did point out was chips for game consoles being a little weak I don't know if there's any breed through to that or it's a market share thing or weakness in the space yes all right interesting one all right AMD down 2.8% you
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