저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
중앙은행의 금 매입은 투기가 아닌 달러 대체 준비자산 확보 목적이며, 이는 달러 본위에서 금 본위로의 통화질서 전환을 의미한다. 개인투자자는 금 ETF를 팔고 있었고 기관 금 비중도 미미해 랠리 여력이 크다고 주장. 달러는 향후 1년 내 금 대비 추가 하락 예상. 장기금리 상승과 QE 재개 가능성을 제기하며 금 상승 촉매로 봄. 연준의 물가 목표 신뢰도 낮음.
다듬은 글
China's a big buyer, but they're not the only buyer. Mhm. Um but but the point is that that's not speculative buying. I mean, China isn't buying gold to flip it. I mean, th- th- th- th- this gold's not going to see the light of day for who knows how long. China is buying to have gold as a reserve to replace the dollar.
And I think that's what a lot of other central banks are doing. They're buying gold to restore gold as, you know, the monetary a backing of their of their currency. And this I think is a major transformation in the global monetary system. I think it's on the order of or maybe bigger than what happened in the 1970s when we went off the gold standard.
And so, the world went from uh having the US dollar backed by gold as the reserve to just having a fiat currency as the reserve. That was a significant shift in the monetary order, but now it's not the US going off the gold standard, it's the the world going off the dollar standard and returning to the gold standard.
And I think that's probably even more significant, certainly for the United States uh because we're about to have the rug pulled out from under us. And, you know, we've been living off of the uh dollar's reserve status. We've used it as a crutch to live beyond our means. Uh we've enjoyed uh lower consumer prices and lower interest rates and higher asset prices as a result of this privilege that I think we are in the process of of losing.
So, when you point to these other moves up in gold and silver, I think they were largely driven at the peaks by speculators, you know, by retail investors who were, you know, jumping on the bandwagon and pushing the markets to, you know, kind of extreme points, and then they would go down. I don't think we've even seen that yet.
I think that retail investors have barely participated. In fact, if you look back at the flows from all of last year and most of this year, retail investors were selling uh gold ETFs. They were selling gold stock ETFs. So, they sold into the rally. They they weren't buying. Uh in fact, if you talk to a lot of the um you know, the the smaller coin shops around the country, and I've seen interviews, most of the people that came in over the last few months were people that were selling their gold.
They were like bringing in their jewelry to melt it down and and get some cash. It wasn't a frenzy of people looking to buy gold. And the institutions, you know, are barely involved. The pension funds, the endowments, hedge funds, I mean, they barely have any position in gold. It wasn't until just recently that you saw, you know, more talk from, you know, a Ray Dalio or well, although Jeff Gundlach has been talking gold for a while, but a few other people.
Morgan Stanley came out in the last month. I think one of their analysts said that we should tweak the 60/40 portfolio to be 60/20/20, where you split your bonds in half and you buy gold. But I doubt they've had any opportunity to make the switch. I mean, they've just started to recognize uh gold's value after denying it for decades.
You know, I've been in the investment business for, you know, over 35 years, and uh I was pretty much a lone voice, you know, as a stock broker, telling my clients that they should have an allocation to gold in their portfolio. When I went on major financial networks to talk about it, they generally laughed at me, or they accused me of fear-mongering, or just trying to sell gold.
You know, when I mean, they you know, they didn't accuse a stock broker of recommending a stock because he's just trying to sell stocks. And of course, I was both, right? I was in in a you know, a stock broker, but I also thought that people should have gold as part of their portfolios. But that was like, you know, uh sacrilegious.
But now people are starting to say, "Hey, wait a minute, given the fact that gold has outperformed stocks over the last 25 years. If you go back to 1999 when the Dow peaked at 45 oz of gold, today it's worth, you know, it was 11. I had didn't do the math today, but it was, you know, just recently down to 11.
That was a 70% decline the price of the Dow Jones measured in real money, measured in gold. And given the fact that just holding gold, you know, in a shoe box beat the Dow. And I'm not talking about just the price, it actually beat the return because the dividend yield has been pretty low over these, you know, these years.
You got you actually did better just holding holding a gold coin. And and so I guess, you know, given that, I think Wall Street finally recognizes that yes, gold has a place in your portfolio. And if that's the case, well, this rally has a long way to go because that means a lot of investors have a lot of gold they need to buy.
Meanwhile, the central banks are are are getting started. I don't think they're nearly complete in their transformation of their reserves. Uh they still have a lot of dollars to get rid of and a lot of gold to buy. Clearly, when gold is at 4,000 and it was at 2,000 2 years ago, the dollar's lost half of its purchasing power in terms of how much gold you can buy with your dollar.
So, the dollar is losing value against real money right now, but so are the pound and the euro and the yen and all these other currencies. But I do think that you're going to start to see the dollar losing a lot more value relative to its fiat counterparts either, you know, before the end of this year or or next year.
And that's going to accelerate the increase in the price of gold in dollar terms. But I think it's already giving you a forewarning that that's going to happen. I think gold is rising as a reflection of a loss of confidence in the dollar because I think the main reason that gold is being accumulated is because central banks have lost confidence in the dollar and in the you know, the the fiscal responsibility of the US government or any the credibility of the Federal Reserve.
So you're seeing it first in gold. I think you'll next see it in the dollar and then I think you'll see it after that in the Treasury market where you'll start to see a big drop in bond prices and a rise in long-term yields despite the fact that the Fed is going to be reducing short-term rates. And I think that is going to be the catalyst for a return to quantitative easing because I think the Fed is going to try to lower long-term interest rates through its open market operations where it needs to print money to buy the bonds that the rest of the world is is selling.
And so that I think will be another catalyst to drive gold to even higher levels because that's just massive inflation. And you know, the last couple of times we tried a QE uh inflation at least the way the government purports to measure it was below 2%. So the government was able to justify QE by saying, "Look, you know, inflation is below target and so we could do this uh because the goal is to get inflation higher to reach our target and so you know, we're going to accomplish that with QE." But if inflation is already well above 2%, what is the excuse for creating more inflation?
How do you justify QE when inflation is 4 or 5% the way the government measures it? That's simply you just the Fed just moves his its inflation target to 3% and officially and then you've got more QE to be justified. that would I don't think they could do that because just moving it to 3%. Once you move the goalpost once, well, now you've already broken trust because if you can move it to three, you can move it to four.
But even moving it to three is a big game-changer cuz that means a 50% increase in annual inflation. I mean, what does that do to the present value of gold if inflation is going to be 50% higher from now until the end of time? But of course, they're not going to achieve three because if they give up two and they move to three, well, then they're going to give up three.
They've already proven that their target is BS when they're above it. They don't have, you know, the monetary cojones to do what it takes to bring inflation down to 2%. Well, then why would they have it to bring it down to 3% or 4%? So, I think, you know, once they once they move it, they're they're they're done, which is why they probably won't.
I don't know that they're officially ever going to say that they have a target of three. I think they're going to keep a target of two, but they're just never going to hit it. And I thought it was really ridiculous in the last FOMC meeting, somebody actually asked Powell about the, you know, about his forecast because he pointed out, "Hey, you know, two years ago you predicted that in two years inflation would be 2% and now it's two years later and it's way above 2% and you're still predicting that 2% will will have 2% inflation in two years." And he said, you know, "Why should we believe you?
I mean, what makes you more confident now than you were two years ago when you made the same prediction?" And Powell basically said, "Look, we don't really know where inflation's going to be in two years. It's just that 2% is our target, so that's our forecast. We just we just assume that we're going to hit our target, but we have no idea." So, in other words, they just make it up.
The only reason they forecast 2% is because they want it to be 2%, not because they think it's going to be 2% or they have any reason to believe that it's going to be 2%. So, they could just keep on talking 2% inflation just to pretend that they've got that target, but, you know, we're we're not going to go anywhere near it.
What they may do to try to get closer to 2% is not change the target, but change the CPI. I mean, that's how the government operates. You change the methodology for calculating the CPI so that you get a you get a lower number. That That's what they did with the Boskin Commission. That's why the whole CPI is irrelevant today because, you know, it's been uh rigged by the government to have a low number.
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