저자: ChrisRetzler/영상내Nvidia분석은채널내레이터—소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
자막 1부: 게이트 실적 부진과 Old Navy 가이던스 하향, 경영진이 환경 대신 실행력 문제를 인정했다고 설명. 소형주 강세는 AI 인프라 투자와 국방 현대화 수혜로 설명되며 소비 관련주는 약세. Needham 펀드는 연초 대비 약 74% 상승 vs Russell 2000 18%. 자막 2부: Nvidia는 AI 컴퓨트 부족이 지속되고 추론 수요가 확대되어 수요 엔진이 계속 커진다고 주장. 설명란 없음, 시장 전망 수치는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Uh about 7 minutes before we get started with trading here at the New York Stock Exchange. Let's get to today's Mad Dash. Uh Gap is going to be a bit of a loser this morning after earnings. Yes. Now, Richard Dickson's doing a very good job, but it seems like it's been inconsistent uh this quarter. Gap, for instance, the actual flagship is up 10%, but Old Navy was very disappointing, and that's the biggest.
And because Old Navy is disappointing, the company cut No, cut They just slashed the outlook in a way that people were kind of shocked. Old Navy projected down in the low single digits and have been really, really strong. At I you know, this Athleta is is is just not good. Down double digits down. So, what is the issue?
Do we know? Well, that was part of the difficulty, David. The issue was that they felt they did not execute. Now, we have some headline which says that they blamed it on the environment and costs. No, it did not. I just have to tell you this with you. I don't have to correct things. It was He did Sorry, specifically did not blame the environment.
He blamed it on himself and on execution. Okay, so they did not say it was a broader macro issue or consumer issue. They said it was an execution issue. like, you know, one of the things I don't like is when I hear that someone blamed the environment and they didn't blame themselves. Right. so it's like in Julius Caesar, I mean, the fault was in himself.
It wasn't the stars. Got it. So, I it was a jarring call because Richard is really fabulous at fashion. I do have him on tonight. And they have to you They cut some very big damage. Matthew Boss down where a lot of people have really hoped that this was going to be the breakout quarter. I You didn't wave tariffs, either.
I mean, they're going to give you a tariff refund, but it just plain it just didn't get it done, and it was a brutal call, brutally honest call. I I recommend if someone did not have a good quarter, this is the way to do it. But the guy down was done by the CFO, and it was disconcerting because we if you take a longer term chart, you'll see the inconsistency in gap has been very unnerving, very unnerving.
All right. Yeah, I mean real spending on footwear and apparel is negative. I'm not sure how you can't not look at that. I wanted and we're going to talk about it. I'm going to press him on it because when I talked to all the different retail analysts, those are big categories. But even say, "Listen, I'm trying to bring in cosmetics." I didn't get that done.
I didn't have the right walk. And he said important He did not say our team. He did not do any of that stuff. He puts it right on himself. And I I like that, but of course I like better numbers. We'll keep an eye on shares of Gap looking down as much as 14 or 15%. Got an opening bell a little less than 5 minutes from now.
Don't go anywhere. S&P 500's 10 and 1/2% gain, but all of these sitting at record levels at this point. Not just those two averages. You've also got the Dow, the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 been a very beneficial time to be in equities at least over the last several months. Joining us right now with his insights on small caps is Chris Retzler, portfolio manager of Needham Small Cap Growth Fund.
And Chris, you think at this point that small caps are just getting started, that there's more room to run. Well, I remember where we were about a year ago when all the tariff trouble was coming out and small caps really fell out of favor. What we've seen since then is stability and ability for companies to plan and invest.
And the companies I've been visiting with since the beginning of the year, there's just tremendous excitement, expansion. They're growing. And then when you look at where the money's coming from, hyperscalers, there's over 700 billion dollars. All that filters down. So when you look at it, one person's CapEx is another company's revenue.
And that is filtering out to a lot of the smaller companies that are supplying these build-outs. So is that what's driving all of the growth growth in the Russell 2000? It's not necessarily consumer-based companies. You're talking about the beneficiaries of AI and then the construction and other issues that go along with that.
Yeah, the consumer is certainly a bit weaker. You know, higher oil prices, higher interest rates, but what we're seeing is the build-out of infrastructure, military modernization. You know, our enemies are not sitting still and unfortunately, we need to invest. So, companies like drones, hyper sonic missiles, everything that's been going on, we need to continue to invest.
We're way behind. You know, the companies we're visiting, they're hiring, they're expanding. Um haven't seen this in a very, very long time. Is the way to do that through the Russell 2000 index and buy all of them? Or do you tell people to buy specific companies or specific sectors within that index?
So, we manage a more concentrated portfolio of growth companies, um more focused on, you know, good technological moats as opposed to just a broad index. So, we've been having a great year this year. You know, we'd like to continue doing that, being up about 74%. 74% versus the 18% that the Russell 2000 is up?
Correct. And you know, we're the semi semi cap equipment, infrastructure, military modernization as I've mentioned. Um you know, we think these trends can continue, um but I wouldn't be blind to pulling some money out, trimming, and rotating to some of the names that haven't worked, but the consumer names are certainly an area that's, you know, been weaker.
So, you think that the growth that you've seen in those growthy areas, those specific places within the Russell 2000, maybe that momentum has peaked? I wouldn't say it's peaked, but I think as a portfolio manager, you need to rebalance where you've, you know, outperformed and they may be big percentages in your fund, but as far as where the economy is going, um it's very exciting.
Um you know, we've been traveling around the country, visiting conferences. The enthusiasm with business leaders couldn't be higher. What what are the issues that are facing some of the smaller businesses? For a long time it's been trying to find the labor. It's been that, but it's also was a recovery post COVID where there was a lot of inventory they needed to build, you know, work off that they had & doing well guys.
Without wasting time let's start our video. The market is focused on wrong risk for Nvidia. Over the past several weeks Nvidia had been increasingly concerned about the growing list of risk. Higher oil prices, geopolitical tension, interest rate uncertainty, massive capital risk, profit taking across the technology stocks.
And yet despite all of those headlines, the most important trend in artificial intelligence remain unchanged. There is a still isn't enough compute. That's the real story. While investors debate valuation and market sentiment, companies around the world are still desperately searching for AI capacity.
The stock the shortage hasn't disappeared. If anything, it may be getting worse. That's exactly why Nvidia continue to occupy one of the strongest position in technology. The market often assume that once a company become dominant, growth naturally begin slowing. But Nvidia current situation is unusual.
Instead of demand normalizing, entirely new source of demand is continuing appearing. Cloud providers need more GPUs, enterprises customers need more GPUs, AI startups need more GPUs, government need more GPUs. And now consumer AI applications are beginning to requires a significant inferences capacity as well.
The demand engine keep expanding. One of the most overlooked development in involves Apple's growing AI ecosystem. As Apple rolls out increasingly sophisticated AI features, those services require infrastructure behind the scenes. And that infrastructure ultimately depend on massive amount of compute.
And increasingly the Nvidia appears positioned to benefit from that trend. What make this important isn't what's happened this quarter. It's what's happened over the next several years. Every successful AI applications create more user engagement. More engagement create more inferences demand and more inferences demand require more infrastructure.
The more infrastructure drives demand throughout the entire ecosystem. That's why many investors believe the next phase of AI could actually be larger than the first. The first phase was about building the models. The next phase is about serving billions of users and serving billions of users is far more computing intensive than many people realize.
Meanwhile, another important signal emerged from the broader infrastructure market. Companies throughout the AI supply chain continue raising enormous amount of capital. Critics often view these announcements negatively, but think about what they are actually telling us. Businesses don't raise billions of dollars because customers disappear.
They raise billions of dollars because demand is arriving faster than the expected. They need inventory. They need servers. They need networking equipment. They need data centers and they need capacity immediately. And that's exactly what we are seeing today. Across the industry, executives keep repeating the same message.
Demand exceeds the supply. Name changes, product changes, customer changes, but the conclusion remain identical. There is a simply not enough AI infrastructure available.
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