저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 경착륙 없이 연착륙을 달성할 것이며 경기침체 우려는 과하다는 주장. 인플레이션 전망: 소비재(중고차·신차·가전) 가격 급등은 공급망 차질 해소로 둔화될 것이며, 과잉 재정·통화 완화로 생긴 수요 충격도 정상화되는 중이라고 봄. 금리 전망: 연방기금금리 2.5~3% 수준이면 경기를 충분히 둔화시켜 인플레를 잡을 수 있다고 주장. 진행자가 강하게 긴축해야 한다는 Heller의 주장을 반박. 서비스 물가: 가장 큰 문제는 주거비(rent)로, 신규 임대료가 전년비 12~15% 오른 상태이며 12~18개월 시차로 CPI에 반영될 것이라고 봄. 물가 경로: 소비지출 디플레이터 인플레이션은 향후 몇 달 내 6~7%로 정점을 찍은 뒤 하반기 3~4%대로 하락, 내년 3~4%, 2023년 약 2%까지 내려갈 수 있다고 전망. 시장 관점: 시장과 연준이 보고 싶어하는 것은 인플레이션이 정점을 찍었다는 명백한 증거이며, 2% 복귀가 조만간 되지 않을 것이라는 점은 누구에게나 명확하다고 언급. 리스크: 서비스 인플레이션(의료, 임금 상승 등)이 한번 자리잡으면 제거가 어렵다는 진행자의 우려가 제기되었고, 이에 대한 명시적 반박은 없음.
다듬은 글
welcome both of you we're glad to have you here mr heller i i'm i'm struck by something in my notes where you say that really to get inflation uh tamed the fed fund rate needs to be positive i.e above the inflation rate which would put it at something like seven or eight percent um that would spell recession or or maybe even worse wouldn't it well uh both boom times as well as a recession times can cause high interest rates if you're in a big boom if we have a lot of inflation interest rates will be high but at the present time the federal reserve has to step on the brakes and actually slow down the economy and therefore we got to have positive real rates and that means a much much higher fed funds rate than we have at the present time so you would have liked to have seen them raised by how much today a point two points what yeah the more the better uh you know they should have raised a long time ago now they're behind the curve and they're in a box they have to raise it very high they're talking about 50 basis point steps but that will not stop inflation for a long time to come so ed i don't know whether you agree with with robert or you disagree but i do know in my notes that you say a lot of people are asking you so why not just do it get it go more aggressively sooner and take it take the rate to where you think you're going to be able to effectively slow inflation and do it fast right well to your first question i am in a uh uh opposite camp i think that uh two and a half to three percent of the fed funds rate is going to slow the economy down enough uh to help bring inflation down inflation isn't totally a monetary phenomenon that's something we've learned over the past 10 plus years the fed is remember when the fed tried to bring inflation up to two percent with very easy money and couldn't do it there are other factors at work uh operating on inflation and i think the supply chain disruptions is certainly an issue which will get increasingly resolved we've really had a tremendous inflation led by consumer durable goods used car prices new car prices appliances betting i mean these things just don't keep going up at 15 to 20 percent which is what we've been seeing over the past couple of years i think they are going to start slowing down i think we had a demand shock that was stimulated by way too much fiscal and monetary uh easing and now i think we're going to see that the demand for goods uh is satiated to a larger extent pent up demand is spatiated we're going to see some strength in services so i think the fed is actually going to accomplish a soft landing i'm i'm not in the recession camp and i wonder though if this doesn't capture the potential for higher services inflation that's coming you know it almost feels like we're going to be in a twin peak situation where we had the good spike and that was one thing but how do you get rid once it's embedded i mean look at hca's results the other day health services inflation look at what everyone from tupperware to lyft has said in the past 24 hours about wage inflation sure yeah i think you're making a very good point a very important point i think on the services side we the main trouble is going to be on rent as we know rent inflation right now is quite elevated new leases by some accounts nationally are up 12 to 15 percent on a year-over-year basis with a lag of about 12 to 18 months all those new leases get into the pool of of leases and we'll see that in the cpi uh my forecast is that the consumption deflator inflation rate uh will probably peak within the next few months at six to seven percent and then i think it's going to come down to three uh to something like four to five percent uh by the second half of the year so i think we will see a peak it's still going to be uh high and then next year i think we get down to three to four percent and the year after that 2023 i think we could actually get down to two percent i think what the markets want to see and what the fred wants to see is some incredible evidence that we're peaking that we're not going to go back to two percent anytime soon i think that's pretty obvious to everybody
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