저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
연준은 유가 급등을 무시(look through)해야 하며 이번주 금리 조치는 없을 것으로 봄. 워시 취임 후 6월 회의 전후 기준, 올해 두 차례 인하 가능성 언급. 1970~2008년 대비 미국은 에너지 자급 구조라 유가 충격 영향 제한적, 주거비(셸터) 둔화로 향후 1년~1년반 인플레 완화 우호적. 달러 약 5% 상승으로 수입물가 완화. 시장은 중동(이란) 합의 가능성을 반영하는 것으로 보며 S&P500은 약 5% 조정 구간. 골드만·JP모건식으로 GDP 0.2~0.3%p 하향 가능성 언급, 유가 선물은 가을쯤 60달러대로 하락 전망.
다듬은 글
Joining us now, Jeremy Siegel, professor at the Wharton School. Professor, so good to have you. You know, you called it right as always on Friday when you said, "Look, these inflation numbers that we're going to get today probably going to come in as expected or maybe even better." What do you What did you see from that reading that you found interesting and then what do you expect from the Fed this week?
Well, I agree with Roger that we're not going to see anything this week. I honestly, I don't think we're going to see anything in in until we get Kevin Warsh taking over in the June meeting. Unless there's a big deterioration in in the job market, which you know, we we don't have any evidence at the present time.
I also wanted to comment that some people are saying, "Oh, this is a supply shock such as we had during COVID and the Fed didn't get ahead of that. It was behind that." This is 100% different and let me let me tell you why. Right after COVID, we had the biggest fiscal stimulus bill since World War II.
And in the 2 years from March 2020 to March 2022, you know, J. Powell engineered the biggest increase in the money supply that we had in 150 years. We don't have any of that now. And so, I do not think that you know, and you know, obviously if we spike very high, there's going to be a ripple, but I think the Fed has got to look through this.
The market today seems to be telling me, "Hey, there there's some Maybe there's some good news on the horizon." You know, you look at the You look at the market, they seem to sense something. One of your previous guests said that almost half the oil through the Strait of Hormuz is now going through pipelines, which I think is really quite quite amazing.
But I think the I think we should have two cuts later on in the year, but my God, there's so much between then and and now that I think the Fed is completely in a wait-and-see environment. Yeah, and you mentioned the optimism of these markets up this morning despite all the headlines. You know, this divergence between the geopolitical volatility and these buoyant markets perhaps hasn't been this stark in a long time.
We're talking this morning. Does that reflect composure or does that reflect complacency? What's your view of whether the markets are really pricing the risks right now? I I think they are pricing the risk. I mean, you know, certain countries like Dubai is in a bear market now. I mean, I think they just went down 20%.
But, you know, we're basically energy self-sufficient. We're going to get the rise in oil prices, but look at the dollar has gone up almost 5%. We don't don't don't talk about the fact that that is lowering the price of imports, which is going to cushion that inflation number somewhat. On on the other side, we are so much in a better position than the rest of the world or the where we were 10 years ago, 20 years ago.
And I'm old enough to remember 40 years ago in 1980 when when that oil went up and boy, we were in one of the worst recessions we ever had because, you know, we were importing half of our oil. So, we are just in a so much better situation and I think the market thinks we do have the upper hand here in Iran and they're going to come to a deal and it might be this week.
That would be positive. Of course, a lot of tail uncertainty here, but certainly something The market's thinking something right now, I believe. So, so you're not as concerned about inflation right now. No, because I think once you look through this oil situation, the major factors I mean, one of the the biggest factor in inflation is actually shelter.
And rentals on the national index have actually been totally flat over 2 and 1/2 years. The Case-Shiller home price index that we're talking about owner-occupied has been up 1 to 2% because of the way the government puts these in the data, it it's really lagged, but that's a tailwind to lower inflation over the next really year and year and a half.
So, yeah, I mean, oil is going to come through. There's going to be two or three tenths that is going to come through, but because, you know, credit isn't being expanded excessively and because fiscal stimulus is just not there, we're just not going to get this as a as a big inflationary impulse. And and Professor, I mean, you mentioned we're in a better spot certainly than decades past.
We had previous oil spikes. Of course, we were at $100 oil in nominal terms in 2008 when the economy was much smaller and obviously consumers had less to spend. On the other hand, relative to what we expected this economy to be doing in the early part of this year, there's been a significant revision.
This is going to be more friction in the economy. Everyone's been hyping a big tax refund season for 6 months and we're spending most of that to to basically pay for for energy. It was never going to be that huge of a swing factor and now it's muted. So, I think it's sort of is it caused the market to adjust what kind of an underlying economy we're going to have this year.
Where do you think that is landing? Well, I think that's one reason why, you know, we do have we're in the pullback territory. I guess 5% for S&P, although open looks like we we might nudge above that. That's why there has been somewhat of of an adjustment downward. But, if if you looked at you know, the major, you know, Goldman Sachs, J.P.
Morgan, they're taking two tenths off, maybe three tenths off of of of GDP. We take a look at the oil futures market, you know, we're back down in the 60s, you know, by the end of the fall. Again, things could blow up, but at least in terms of what the markets and and the flows are right now, this is not going to it might offset that tailwind, but you know, there's still a lot of good things going on in in the economy.
And and lastly, Professor, you mentioned that, you know, Warsh taking over in June. I mean, there's been a lot of headlines about the the subpoenas and Attorney General Shapiro saying, "Look, you know, she's going to appeal the those decisions." This could actually end up remaining Powell for longer in that in that seat.
What do you think is going to happen and how could that affect where we see rates headed for the rest of this year? Yeah, I Well, let me give you my opinion here. I think it's 100% that Warsh is taking over. I mean, I don't understand why Trump I mean, you is pursuing anything now unless unless he fears that Powell is going to stay on.
Now, you know, very honestly, I would not stay on if I were quote demoted from chair to a regular FOMC meeting. It's almost unprecedented. So, he's going to be leaving anyways. You know, and you know, I you know, I I don't understand what what what the pursuit is anymore on that issue. So, I mean, my feeling is it's going to be worked out.
Warsh is going to be taken over for the for the June meeting and I think that Powell will not continue on at the Fed afterwards and so this whole issue will die.
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