저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 구글 TPU 등 경쟁 칩 대비 2~3년 앞서 있어 금표준 지위가 유지된다는 결론. 엔비디아 칩 수요가 공급을 크게 웃돌며(수요/공급 약 12대1), 고객사는 원하는 칩의 일부만 확보 가능한 상황이라고 설명. 그록(Groq) 인수 이후 추론(inference) 시장까지 엔비디아가 진출하려 하며, 3~4조 달러 규모의 기회를 노린다고 평가. 중국향 제한 반도체(H200)도 화웨이 대비 약 2년 앞서 있다고 언급. 주문잔고는 약 5000억 달러 수준이 언급되나 실제로는 6000~7000억 달러에 가깝다고 주장하며, 시장이 이를 충분히 반영하지 않는다고 봄. 현재 확보된 주문은 전체의 20~30% 수준이며, 나머지 70~80%는 피지컬 AI·자율로봇 등 향후 수요에 달려 있다고 설명. 소프트웨어·AI 활용 사례 확대가 과소평가되고 있다고 봄. 주가 약 185달러 기준 130~150달러 상승 여지가 시장에 반영되지 않았다고 주장, 2027년까지 시총 6조 달러 전망. 단기적으로는 지정학 우려로 불안한 시기이나, 젠슨 황의 GTC 발표를 계기로 엔비디아가 공격적으로 시장 확대 의지를 보일 것으로 기대. 결론적으로 엔비디아는 여전히 저평가된 주식이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
So, can today's announcements get its shares moving again? Let's ask Dan Ives. He's head of technology research at Wedbush. Great to have you here, Dan. Appreciate you coming in in studio with us. Um maybe let's just start with this question. We started to get into a little bit last hour, but this competition with Google.
You know, when if Google can answer questions with Gemini really well and fast and they're using their own chips and their TPUs, how does Nvidia answer that? Yeah, look, the reality is I mean Nvidia's two to three years ahead of anyone, including Google. So, look, with TPUs or even what OpenAI is going to come out with, I mean, there are some alternatives, but the reality is you want the gold standard when it comes to Nvidia.
Now, if you look at Meta and others, you can't get for every 10 chips that you want to get, you can maybe get three of them. Wow. So, it speaks right now. We're talking demand and supply is 12 to 1 for Nvidia chips. But when it comes to Grok and what they're showing on inferencing, this is them saying, "We're not losing that market."
Grok with a Q, not Grok with a K. Grok with a Q, exactly. But this is basically And that was from the acquisition, you know, in terms of essentially what they did. This is basically Jensen and Nvidia saying that is going to be our market as well. And it speaks to a three to four trillion market opportunity they're going after because right now, there it's their world, everyone else paying rent.
So, this is like the Lollapalooza for for chips and learning and inference chips and everything like that. Which Lollapalooza has a lot of different acts. But you're saying there's really only one act going on there. Look, their third-rate chip, a restricted H200 in China, is still what? Two years ahead of Huawei.
Right. They're on the out stage. Look, and the look, they're on I mean, going back to that, they're the main stage. Everyone's waiting for when Jensen comes out with Main stage. getting people to sign on and sign up for more Nvidia chips. Because once you're in it, you're not leaving. And it speaks to what they recognize where they are and they'll talk of Jensen will talk about a GTC just saying how like demand continues to accelerate.
You look at like the 500 billion that Christina talked about. I mean that's probably closer to what 6 to 700. of their order backlog. Do you think he's going to talk about the backlog? That they have you think he's going to talk about the backlog? think he's going to touch on it but it speaks to this whole point where streets giving really I think minimal credit after what was just what I think a Michael Jordan like quarter that they just had to what is actually happening on the AI demand story and it just speaks to the cap backs.
You got to follow the numbers and the reality is that those cap backs dollars the vast majority it's coming to Nvidia. But I I just want to get this because what you're it sounds like what you're saying is winning perforce creates more winning. Mhm. So there's this order book but there's this whole other thing happening underneath here where when you bring somebody on you're going to create more orders down down the road.
Yeah, to put it like maybe in numbers Yeah. just let just say like 20 30% is right now what they maybe like they they already have stamped. Right. But they're focused on what's the 70 80% down the road and that's really what the whole conference about is that as when it comes to things like physical AI, autonomous robotics, I mean that's really something that Jensen and Nvidia are going after and none of that is factored into the stock.
It just speaks to our view like you're in year three of an 8 to 10 year build out. And I just think a lot of that is not being factored into this stock and I also think when it comes to software and the AI goes trend anthropic and every I think it's being very significantly miscalculated and underestimated how software is going to play a huge role in the use cases.
Yeah, you're more bullish on on that piece of it, yeah. So not factored suggests there's a number in your head. Mhm. At 185 what's not factored in? I mean, I'd say $130 to $150 left is not factored into the stock. It's already like $300 going to be an eight trillion company? Look, I believe by 2027 six trillion.
Yeah. In terms of where this market is. Now, I get it right now in terms of like geopolitical white-knuckle period, New York City cab drivers bearish on tech. But, we will get to a point as the numbers play out and Nvidia, I say it's still a cheap stock and like Jensen's going to come out. There's going to be no holds barred.
I think you're going to see a very aggressive Jensen talking about this is our market. Quickly on that.
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