저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜담은 Shiller PE·역사적 사례(1929, 일본 89, 2000, 2008)를 근거로 현재 시장이 역사상 가장 취약하다고 주장한다. 고PE가 좋은 시기가 아니라 최악의 시기를 예고해왔다고 강조. 실업률 상승, 장단기 금리차 등 침체 선행지표가 이미 나타나 침체 가능성이 높다고 본다. 부채 확대가 성장을 높이지 못했다는 점도 지적. 최근 시장은 AI 관련 7대 기술주 중심 랠리로 좁게 형성됐고, AI는 중요하지만 수익화는 불확실하다고 평가. 금리 인하 이후 하락이 대부분 발생한다는 역사적 패턴을 경고.
다듬은 글
um this is the most vulnerable Market there has ever been and history is pretty clear most of the decline occurs after the First Rate cut let me say my main interest in the market has been as a historian and therefore I'm cursed with a much longer Horizon than 99% of the players and I've done my best to tailor to that and and live with it but as a historian you have to say if you look at the broad sweep of History you have to be impressed with how incredibly bad the marketplace is as a judge of the future so if you'll bear with me for a second just let's go back to 1929 it's the highest PE on trailing earnings up till then in history uh by today standards pretty modest 21 times trailing the earnings however have spiked they've done brilliantly well the economy is booming like it was China in its Heyday probably the most rapid period of growth in American history um double digit increases in industrial production that kind of thing and it peaked in September 1929 September October 21 times trailing and how good was that it was the highest price in American history what was it projecting it was projecting not just ordinary times not just not good times it was projecting the worst 10 years in American economic history so you had the highest PE the greatest bull market not a few years before a few days before the beginning of the biggest wipeout in fundamentals not the stock market yes the stock market went down colossally but the economy collapsed the global economy International Trade currencies everything went to hell immediately following the greatest bull market in history so you have to ask yourself what was the market doing that it not only couldn't see trouble coming but it apparently saw heaven coming it could not possibly have been more wrong so you fast forward to Japan which is in a way the mother and father of all bubbles Japanese Market had never sold over 25 times earnings until it did in ' 87 by ' 89 it was put to us that it was 65 times earnings as far as we could tell the Japanese Market was 65 times trailing earnings never having sold above 25 so it had gone up and this is what should put the fear of God in anyone trying to time the market is it gone up 150% more than it ever had in history what did it predict from the day it hit its peak in late 89 you had a lost decade arguably a lost 20 years the Japanese growth went from Sensational to miserable the Japanese market for 8 minutes sold at a larger value than the US market for an economy a third as big it was incredible and again we had a sensational PE not predicting good times but predicting the worst times that you could possibly have wished for for Japan for the next 20 years if you think about the great financial crash it wasn't the highest PE in history but it was pretty darned High the other day in uh in ' 08 in early' 08 and again from a very high level third only to 1929 and 2000 Tech bubble instead of predicting good times it predicted the worst financial crisis in modern history which nearly brought the entire developed world to its knees and needed the most Sensational bailouts and injection of liquidity Etc to save our bacon incredible so if you look at the three great events or three of the four Great events of the 20th century you have to say absolutely spectacularly wrong Peak multiples projecting the worst periods of our history well I often quote husman I've actually never spoken to him but he he produces very good data and it's free which I always like and uh the model that he uses that has the highest predictive value um measuring the value of the market is slightly higher today than it was at its two previous Peaks 1929 and 2021 December just before the fairly decent decline of 2022 and now we're slightly higher this is on the most predictive measure of value that he has produced and he's worked at that as far as one can tell constantly for 30 years um this is the most vulnerable Market there has ever been and given the incredible record of the past that the highest multiples do not predict Good Times which you learn at Business School but have historically predicted the worst times uh it should give you cause for some concern and some caution and of course the market does not feel concerned or cautious it didn't in 1929 it didn't in Japan in ' 89 it didn't in the US before before the housing bust of 0708 that's the way the market is so dear listener get used to it you will not be warned the very best of times it will feel like the highest possible pricing the highest possible pees will be followed not just by tough times but some of the worst times that occur that's the historical precedent everybody kind of knows because it was so clear blatant if you will Market peaks in December 21 is coming down pretty steadily the stock market the bond market the worst decline in the first half of 22 since 1939 in terms of loss of percentage value of the US market and then in November uh chat gbt comes out and yes to the Insiders that was spiking for a couple of years in terms of developments but in terms of the stock market it was like a bolt across the sky uh we knew nothing and suddenly there it was chat gbt AI was everywhere and the Magnificent Seven kind of sprang to life and the rally that took place for the first 10 months was just that just the seven Magnificent Seven almost all making a claim on AI and the balance of the S&P wasn't actually going up at all and then in the fall of 23 the rest of the market kind of was won over by the sustained gain and has had a very nice rally but nothing compared to the rally in The Magnificent Seven and uh that extreme concentration has been a factor in several great bull markets it wasn't 2000 wasn't 29 to a lesser degree but spectacularly in 2000 and here it is again so AI played a very big role AI is serious uh whether people will actually make real money is another matter but is it serious yes it is it will change the nature of warfare completely it may be in a year or two it will be simply impossible to stand up in open space or run a tank into open space thousands of well-informed Little Machines will buzz around your ear and and destroy you uh it will know who you are it will have face identification it will be an alarming uh tool for uh governments to know what you're doing who you are where you are and uh if necessary in Warfare destroy you so it will change some very important aspects of life whether it will change mundane corporate matters enough to make good money I think a lot of people including me have have serious doubt so it's a very important development it'll be with this forever and it will change life in many ways uh I'm not convinced it makes the market um that attractive but at the moment we're in the selling shovel mode where you sell the chips to people who think they probably can use them and they should be seen to be using them and everyone's putting a lot of money into developing AI products and so the chip seller is brilliant and it's not clear yet whether the people paying for the chips will ever get a return on and we'll find out uh I don't think it's inconceivable but it's clear that that produced the oomph uh to take this Market that was dwindling down and and and produce some fairly spectacular performance particularly of seven stocks and to produce such broad-based enthusiasm eventually that it drags the broader Market with it to a pretty decent degree well um one of the best indicators of recession is um a modest upturn in unemployment and if you see that in a long-term chart you'd be impressed um when the market ticks up 50 basis points half a percent in unemployment 70% of the time it's followed by a recession when it ticks up 0.6% it is uh followed 100% of the time historically with the recession uh today it's 0.7 today it is nicely I mean visibly above the level that historically has always predicted the recession recessions have this slippery habit of taking a little longer than you would like um it's not unique by the way they've done that a couple of times in the past what they haven't done is wriggled off the hook once you get the leading indicators such as the gap between the 90day and the 10year bond or whatever that early warning indicators and then you get the tick up in inflation you have always had a recession and that is the phase that we're in so I would strongly bet as a historian I would just say you've always had a recession in these conditions perhaps you'll get lucky perhaps this time will be very different from history but this isn't one or two times this is 809 times out of 809 you have always had a recession in modern times and perhaps this will be an exception I wouldn't hold my breath um each bubble is different we have to agree that the the government policy of being stimulatory has gotten more and more intense with the passage of time um e even the great financial crash was nothing like the stimulus delivered for Co and once you break out of any historical reference point is it's hard to know what will happen but one of the things as a kind of long-term fundamentalist I should emphasize here is that there's no um strong connection between low rates and economic growth we had a magnificent experiment um conducted really by Greenspan and uh in the uh 1986 87 period we we started to do many things increase the level of debt and the idea is interest rates work because they allow you to take more debt and the idea about debt is it stimulates the economy well starting in ' 87 after a 100 Years of drifting up in in debt to GDP ratio that's all debt government debt corporate debt it had drifted up for 100 years and then it it it kinked to the 45 degrees and went shooting up from 89 until the other day and it tripled it tripled the ratio so you have the biggest country in the world the biggest economy in the world I should say tripling its debt to GDP ratio what an interesting scientific experiment that should reveal something and and the growth rate of its GDP slowed clearly and considerably the growth rate after 89 is two-thirds of what the growth rate is uh since the War uh from 1945 to 289 so you had a magnificent experiment increasing the level of debt did not apparently stimulate the economy it slowed considerably now of course there are many other factors it's a very complicated issue but you would think if debt is so wonderfully helpful to economic growth it might have at least shown better results than that and and an interest rate is a second derivative the only significance of a low interest rate is it allows you to borrow more money but if borrowing more money clearly in the macro level has not had the effect of increasing GDP growth why would we get so excited with a lower interest rate secondly why would we always forget that most of a market decline occurs after the First Rate decrease as you referred to I mean that takes talent because that goes over and over again we get enthusiastic about the first rid oh just hang on guys wait for the First Rate cut and then we're back to the races and history is pretty clear most of the decline occurs after the first rate why do we forget it because that's who we are we travel optimistically and we like to forget unpleasant features
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