저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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The price of gold continues to rise. If the price of gold goes back to 5,000, which I think it will, and then doubles to 10,000, then silver should go up proportionally more. And when people see that , they will buy silver to get that leverage on gold. We have just started a new bull market in silver.
So, this is just the beginning when it comes to silver. And of course , if silver can go up, you know, since I started buying it in the late 1990s, it was about $4 an ounce. Yes. Uh, and if it can go from $4 an ounce to $60 an ounce, you know, or it can definitely go from $60 to $200. I mean, it's only a little more than triple, but it's not even that much of a silver increase.
That will be part of it, but it's really the fall of the US dollar. This means you will need a lot more dollars to buy silver. I think investors are, you know, being deceived by the Fed's rhetoric, Walsh's tough statements about fighting inflation. I don't believe he can take a step back. Um, you know, he admitted that inflation is a choice, and I agree, and that's exactly what he's going to choose.
Uh , you know, his predecessors chose inflation, and he will do it for the same reason, because if you don't choose inflation, then you have to choose something else. And this is a really big drop in the stock market, the real estate market, a recession, a financial crisis. You need to impose fiscal responsibility on the US government .
And none of this will happen. So, uh, I think the markets won't get the rate hike they're expecting. And even if we get some increases, they'll be too little too late, because, uh, we need much bigger increases than the Fed even, you know, claims it can provide. Er, because it's so far behind the curve when it comes to inflation.
This has created such high inflation, and in fact , despite the tough talk, the money supply continues to grow. Yes, hmm, quickly. Um, the Fed's balance sheet continues to grow, and they haven't raised interest rates when they had the chance. In fact, they created five working groups to study the problems, instead of doing anything to solve them.
And this is how politicians usually act when they don't want to do something politically unpopular. They just create a committee or, in this case, a task force , um, and that, you know, distracts them from any action, so the Fed will probably do nothing for a while. But in the meantime, you know, the economy is weak, the labor market is weak, ahem, and interest rates are still rising in the long term.
So there will be a lot of political pressure on the Fed to lower rates and ramp up the, um, quantitative easing program that they don't even acknowledge exists. Going back to the first time the Fed cut rates after raising them in early 2021, long-term bond yields rose, and it was the opposite of what most expected.
Not me. I actually predicted this rate hike. But I think we've already seen that the Fed has lost control of the longer end of the yield curve. The bigger problem is the sheer size of the debt now, approaching $40 trillion, and the trajectory of the rate at which the national debt is growing along with our budget.
These are debts, a deficit that unofficially amounts to about three billion a year. And interest on the national debt, the largest, growing line item, is likely to hit $2 trillion a year, probably sometime next year, keep up the pace. So it's completely unsustainable, and the market is starting to factor that in because there will be a default.
The only question is, how is it an honest default when the government doesn't pay? Is this a kind of quasi-default where, you know, they maybe have debt maturities or they're cutting coupons, or is it just massive inflation? Are they just printing a bunch of money? But either way, bondholders will lose, and that's why they don't want to, uh, buy bonds.
That's why they don't want to hold bonds. Silver has been capped by some overhead resistance since 1980, uh, at around $50, and it pulled back in 2011, uh, before it could reach that peak, although gold has more than doubled its 1980 high . It was almost at the level of 2000. Uh, silver, uh, didn't reach that level.
And then when gold broke through 2000 and went up to 3000-4000, silver didn't really change anything. It seemed to be trading sideways, and at one point silver hit an all-time low —over 100 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold—and then suddenly silver exploded, and its price went from 30 to 120. It went up 4 times in a very short period of time.
So, obviously the price was volatile, heavily overbought, had to pull back at some point, and the catalyst was the outbreak of the Iran war, and that started it all. But, you know, I think silver has rebounded. Now it is above $60 per ounce again. I don't expect it to fall below 50. So, I think the old old resistance is the new support.
And we have just started a new bull market in silver. So, it's early when it comes to silver. And of course, if silver can go at all, you know, since I started buying it in the late 1990s, it's been around $4 an ounce. And if the price can go from $4 an ounce to $60 an ounce, you know, or certainly from $60 to $200.
I mean, that's just a little more than three times. But it's not even about silver going up. That will be part of the problem. But in reality, the US dollar is falling. This means you will need a lot more dollars to buy silver. You will need a lot more dollars to buy everything. So why should silver be excluded?
I think the price of silver will rise even if we don't create inflation. I think that with all the new demand for silver, all the new ways it's being used, and with the increased demand for electricity and power, and where it's useful in that whole process, that means the demand for silver is going to be much higher.
There just are n't that many offers. So, simply in the absence of inflation or any monetary premiums starting to accumulate in silver, I think the price of silver will go up just as the price of copper is going up. I mean, copper prices have hit record highs. You know, people don't use copper as a store of value or as money, but they need copper, and you know, for the same reason they need it, there's an industrial demand for gold right now.
There is a lot of it, but there is much more safe value. And you know, central banks don't hold silver, they don't hold copper, but they hold gold. But, you know, silver has both . So I think you'll see more industrial demand and more investment demand as a hedge against inflation, as a leveraged play on gold.
You know, because if gold continues to go up, if gold goes back to 5,000, which I think it will, and then doubles to 10,000, uh, silver should have proportionally more growth. And when people see that , they will buy silver to get that leverage on gold. There is a lot of complacency surrounding this and the status of the dollar .
We take it for granted in the United States, and part of that is due to arrogance or pride, and we believe there is no alternative. We believe the world is stuck on the dollar, just like our dollar, your problem. Because they don't see an alternative, for example, if you're going to use the euro . I mean yen.
You cannot use yen. Uh, you know, the British pound, you 'll use it , or you know, the Chinese, you'll trust them. But the reality is this, and I've been saying this for years. You don't need fiat currency. You just use gold. And I think that's exactly what's happening. Central banks convert dollarization into gold.
Gold is a substitute for the dollar because gold was a reserve before it became the dollar. And in fact, the only reason the dollar achieved this status was because of its gold backing. And it wasn't just backed by gold, if you owned dollars, you had a claim on the gold that you could sell whenever you wanted.
It was a debt note for gold. Uh, and the dollar itself was actually worth its weight in gold. So we moved on to that in 1971. And so the world kind of switched to this fiat standard, but now they can go back to gold. They can go back to backing their currencies with something real, not just, you know, uh, you know, worthless promises of the United States not paying you anything .
The opportunity cost, uh, is greatly exaggerated because , first of all, when I started recommending people to buy gold, you know, in a professional capacity, but when I started doing it, uh, it was the late 1990s...Uh , gold was under $300 and silver was, you know, $4. So if you bought gold for $300 and it's now worth $4,000, that doesn't mean you lost any profit.
You actually made a better return than the stock market as a whole. Has gold outperformed all the stocks you could buy? Did it surpass, you know? No. There are stocks that have risen more than gold, but if you just bought the S&P index, gold has outperformed it. Uh, silver too. So investors did not lose any profits by investing in gold and silver.
They lost profits by investing in cash. So, if you've just been sticking with cash for the past 20 years...Yes. But I never promoted it. I didn't tell people to only own gold and silver. That's why I told people to own stocks too. I just focused mostly on foreign stocks. Overall, these stocks haven't performed as well as American stocks, but they have paid much higher dividends than we've been able to get for many years.
And some of our foreign stocks have performed better than the average, you know, American stock. But on average, no, the US market outperformed them. Although this has not been the case in the last few years . In fact, last year was the biggest in my career in terms of outperformance of foreign stocks compared to domestic ones.
So, you know, I'm not one of those so-called forever bears who just advises keeping all your money in cash. Yes, I am pessimistic about the US economy, macroeconomic fundamentals. I believe the US stock market is overvalued and therefore I don't think it's a good investment. But I offer real alternatives that also provide good profitability .
And ultimately, I think that a lot of the gains that investors have on paper that remain invested in the U.S. stock market bubble will lose those gains when the bubble bursts. So ultimately, it's not like, you know, if you play poker, you win a few hands and have a big stack of chips, but when you leave, you're broke.
You know, the fact that you were ahead for a while doesn't matter to what ultimately happened. And I think the same thing will happen to many American investors, they will lose their profits. Meanwhile, the US equity bond market, where I advised people not to buy US bonds, US bonds, became a disaster.
The yield was very low, and inflation destroyed the value of the principal. So anyone who bought foreign stocks instead of bonds, because I advised people to buy foreign stocks with high dividends instead of bonds , and they have significantly outperformed the U.S. bond market. So, my investment advice over the past few decades, while premature because we didn't have a complete collapse of the U.S.
financial system, was this: the dollar didn't crash, the bond market didn't crash. My investment advice was sound. Could you have done better if you had invested everything in Bitcoin first? Of course. But I mean, you took a huge risk doing that and all that , you know, in retrospect. Or you could just buy all of MAG7's shares.
But how many people have actually done it? So, you know, it would be very reckless and irresponsible to do that. So, yeah, now that we know the outcome, it's easy to say, you know, I could find a winning lottery ticket and say, well, you should have bought that, right? It's easy. You know, you should have played those numbers.
Yes, but how do you know that these are the numbers that will come up? You will only know after it all happens. Uh, you know , I'm not a quarterback who's counting on money on Monday morning. I tell people what to do on the field, right? You know, in real time. And so I think the advice is sound, and I think the financial collapse that I warned about a long time ago is coming, and it's just going to be worse than it would have been if it had happened ten or two years ago, because the problem is much bigger now than it was then.
Yes, we managed to postpone the reckoning, but since we did, there is much more to consider. So, you know, it's even more important, uh, to be prepared in advance, uh, for a crisis.
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