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Cathie Wood의 ARK가 원자력 스타트업 OKLO 약 240만 달러어치를 매수했다는 소식으로 시작. 발표자는 OKLO의 소형 마이크로 원자로 설계(15~100MW), 약 6,000만 달러 건설비, 2027년 아이다호 1호기 목표, 1,350MW 의향서 파이프라인, 연간 지출 4~5천만 달러, 약 3억 달러 자산, 11월 락업 해제 이벤트를 설명. 긍정 요소를 제시하면서도 일정 지연, 비용 증가, 규제·환경단체 리스크를 우려하며 당분간 적극 투자는 어렵다고 결론.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood the CEO behind Ark invest has begun to place her bets on the nuclear energy Revolution the ark autonomous technology and Robotics ETF or RQ has recently purchased around $2.4 Million worth of shares in OKO a nuclear energy startup so it seems Cathy has chosen her horse to bet on for the upcoming nuclear Renaissance I covered this stock briefly in a previous video explaining why nuclear stocks were skyrocketing recently but in this video we'll discuss OKO in Greater detail reviewing the company's fundamentals and potential issues I think it might face in the future Kathy Wood has made various investments in artificial intelligence and buying stock in OKO is likely a proxy investment based on that belief in AI the energy demands of the data centers used for AI are growing rapidly and the tech industry is pushing nuclear energy as a potential solution for providing reliable base load power to meet Rising demand we'll touch on oo's management later in the video but Sam Oldman the CEO of open aai is also the chairman of OKO and says on the board of directors so having a personality like samman on the board likely opens up a variety of opportunities for the company to provide some context before discussing oka's technology we must first Define what nuclear reactor types are even out there a large conventional nuclear reactor that we can all think of typically generates 700 megaw or more a small modular reactor is smaller in scale at around a Max of 300 megaw and modular so they can theoretically be mass-produced because reactor components can be pre-assembled and last lastly there are also micro reactors which could generate around 10 megaw of power which would be so small that they can fit in a truck and be transported around in some cases oo is developing what could be defined as micr modular reactors they only expect the reactor design to provide around 15 to 100 megawatt of power their Tech is based on the experimental breeder reactor 2 designed by the US government and operated from 1964 to 1994 it was a 20 megawatt design with inherent abilities like localization to the power grid and Commercial demand flexibility to use fresh or recycled nuclear fuel increased safety measures and competitive operating characteristics the Aurora Powerhouse oka's reactor technology is designed to primarily use non-nuclear supply chain components which will allow them to reduce costs and spinning up the nuclear industry in the United States will take time to do in a direct comparison to traditional nuclear reactor technology and business models Aurora is estimated to cost less than $60 million to build compared to potentially billions of dollars for larger reactors other benefits include Low Land usage proximity to customers fewer parts needed passive Safety Systems so the reactor can safely shut itself down without human intervention if something goes wrong and a manufacturing timeline of less than one year these various benefits allow for lower capex Investments so OKO has decided to build and operate all of their reactors themselves so it doesn't need to license out its technology like the other public nuclear startups do ok also wants to sign long-term electricity generation agreements with companies near the reactor locations so looking at the unit economics the first of aind 15 megawatt reactor would cost approximately $70 million to build after that economies of scale would start to kick in and they would expect the reactors to cost around 57 million to build annual revenues would be 13 million and expenses would be 5 million or lower annual cash flows would come out to around $8 to10 million and the 50 megawatt reactor would be similar but just larger in size and energy output of course so revenues and ultimately cash flows would be higher OKO also includes a cash flow sensitivity model based on the number of 15 or 50 megawatt reactors being deployed once OKO deploys around 10 reactors of either variation you start to cross over into that hundred million and above cash flow range which would be great to see but it will take a significant amount of time to get there because their first project will likely get built with the Idaho National Laboratory in 2027 now I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up extending later as well timelines tend to get stretched with larger scale projects or supply chain situations like OKO so I would bake that into any investor expectations as we know anything that involves the government almost always leads to delays I don't make the rules that's just how it is OKO has a total pipeline of 1,350 megawatt of non-binding letters of intent for reactors across Six States potential customers include centrus energy Diamond Back energy Wyoming hyperscale equinix and the United States Air Force the US is actually trying to help companies like OKO with regulatory problems with the advance act as OKO points out the main goal of that bill was to reduce regulatory costs and timelines for licensing new nuclear reactors and their designs OKO estimates that the new legislation will cut down both timelines and fees by 50% there's also the potential to receive some Financial rewards that would reduce cost further additionally around $900 million in funding was allocated to SMR technology in another bill and the inflation reduction act provided various benefits to the nuclear industry the IRA provided $700 million in funding for nuclear fuel 250 billion to the Department of energy Loan program and potential tax credits as well the funding for smrs will likely not apply to companies like OKO since their reactors are more like micro reactors in size but there are other opportunities for subsidies another another benefit of oka's technology is that the reactor design can actually use recycled nuclear waste as fuel Beyond just use in their reactors OKO is pursuing spent fuel recycling as a separate Market vertical to generate additional Revenue the company's designed plans for a recycling facility have been submitted to the nuclear Regulatory Commission so this is another Avenue for additional upside that other public companies in the space aren't pursuing if OKO successfully builds some fuel recycling facilities the department of energy could provide various Financial rewards to help with funding so that could help with building out those facilities as well moving on to the management team the co-founders Jacob Dwight and Carolyn Cochran received either phds or master's degrees in nuclear engineering at MIT at that point they started OKO and have been working on building up the company for over a decade now as I mentioned before Sam mman is on the board which could lead to interesting Connections in the technology space and the board of directors have Executives in the energy electricity or mil military backgrounds out of the current 88 employees 12 have phds and 36 have at least a MERS in engineering or science so around half of the workforce has an educational background in a related field now of course regulatory experts and former NRC staff have also joined to help with the regulatory work with the US government with that said I'm not sure they have experienced members who have built a nuclear power plant or been involved in those projects in some variety ideally you'd like to see that level of expertise in a company like this but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't succeed some of the lower level employees could have that expertise but I'm just going off of the upper management here for some context OKO went public via a spa merger with ALC acquisition corporation which put the company in a great financial position including cash and marketable securities OKO has around $300 million in total assets so they won't need to raise money for quite some time OKO expects their burn rate to be around 40 to 50 million in 2024 which is 20 to 30 million more than what they thought it would be in 2023 their total shares outstanding is around 122 million 55 million of those Shares are under varied lockup periods important insiders are locked up for 3 years with many of the VC investors locked up for 180 days those shares will be free trading in November since the spa business combination closed on May 9th that will be a month to watch as those shares could potentially hit the public markets now the shares under a three-year lockup period could also enter the markets early if OKO hits triggers at 12 124 and $16 for a third of the consecutive trading days in an approximately 2month period again that's another aspect to consider and look out for so in summary we can see why Kathy Wood would start to pick up shares in OKO they're the closest of the three public nuclear reactor startups to building a potential plant with a timeline for 2027 their design is less Capital intensive than your average small modular reactor since they went with a Micro Design they're cashed up with $300 million in the bank Sam wolman's involved that's always a plus plus and there's bipartisan support for nuclear from the US government so I can see why Arc would choose them it's the best of the three public options now with that said I fear that the company will face the same issues I mentioned in my last video on these nuclear reactor companies OKO is already spending around $50 million annually and those costs will likely only increase over the next few years they already doubled what they expected over the last year I would be surprised if they managed to build their first facility in Idaho on time and on budget but even if we do go off their time lines then it will take OKO at least 3 years to generate any real revenues if that assumes everything goes smoothly we also have to hope there aren't any lawsuits that slow down progress even further the environmentalist crowd could do whatever they can to try to stop oako from building a new reactor once they hear about it you know the not in my backyard or Nim crowd could be a problem for companies like this so of course make your own investment decisions but those are my concerns I might consider taking another look at the company in a few years but I feel no need to take a stab at OKO with any significant Catalyst likely years away if You' like to receive regular coverage of news events and other investment opportunities in green markets then subscribe to my newsletter on substack link in the description thanks for watching
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