저자: JulianKomar · 외국인
요약 보기
기술적 강세(IBD RS 95+) 종목을 스캔한 뒤 펀더멘털과 스토리를 분석하는 방법을 소개. 엔비디아, AMD, Infinera(INFI)는 데이터센터 사업 비중 확대가 공통 테마이며, 엔비디아는 데이터센터 매출 비중 27%·3년 CAGR 53%, AMD는 데이터센터 점유율 1%→7%로 성장. Infinera는 데이터센터 간 광연결 솔루션을 제공하며 클라우드 수요 성장이 특징. 발표자는 펀더멘털 강세를 근거로 종목 관심을 표명하나 구체적 가격 목표나 매매 지시는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, welcome to this video. Today I want to show you how I analyze the story behind an action. I want to do it with three examples: Nvidia, AMD, and Infi. And well, first of all, how do I discover stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Infi? I, personally, always look for technical strength when I want to find stocks.
You can see that the three stocks have something in common from a technical standpoint: they all have an IBD relative strength rating above 95. So I'm looking for very strong stocks, and an RS rating above 95 tells me that the stocks belong to the top 5% of all stocks tracked by IBD. And that's how I discover most of the stocks.
Then, I delved deeply into the analysis of the fundamentals and also the story behind the stock, and I found these three stocks, all from the same industry. They all belong to the semiconductor sector and the semiconductor industry, but the issue behind those three stocks is not semiconductors themselves.
It's a different topic. You may know Nvidia from the graphics cards in your computers, and you may even have an AMD laptop that you use for business. And I'm pretty sure that if you're not experienced traders, you've never heard of Infi, but these shares have something in common. It took me some time to review many investor presentations and press releases about the published earnings results.
And then I found the common theme behind the three stocks, and that theme is the data center. All three stocks are heavily involved in the data center business, and you can see that Nvidia had a very good upward trend between 2016, 2017 and 2018, and there was a lot of discussion about its involvement in AI and also in automotive and autonomous driving.
But if you look at Nvidia's figures today, the autonomous driving sector and AI components only represent a very small part of Nvidia's current revenue. And if I look at Nvidia's investor presentation here, I found something that I find very interesting, and it's this second box. It's the data center .
Today, around 27% of Nvidia's revenue comes from the data center sector, and the three-year compound annual growth rate for this segment of Nvidia is 53%. So it's Nvidia's fastest-growing segment. And you can see that Nvidia is a leader in deep learning and AI, and with that, I mean, it's not like they produce algorithms or anything like that .
No no. They produce graphics cards that are needed in data centers to process algorithms for deep learning and AI components, and there's a theme behind this, which is the issue of GPU acceleration. A GPU is a graphics processing unit and Nvidia specializes in that. And GPUs , yes, GPUs are used in large data centers to run all this visualization, all this image recognition, and AI learning stuff.
And they are used to support CPUs, the central processing units of computers, and in the future GPUs will be used more and more to support the CPU architecture, and that's what's driving growth here at Nvidia. This is not about the automotive industry. It can be seen that 6% of revenue comes from the automotive sector and is only growing at 13%.
So this is very, very small, and it's not about video games either. Video games are Nvidia's biggest segment today, but they are also only growing at 11%. And professional visualization. This is, yes, entertainment, engineering, construction, highly specialized applications of their graphics cards, and the greatest growth comes from here, from data centers.
This is very, very interesting, and Nvidia also bought another company in recent months. It was Melanox, and Melanox is also a company specializing in data and data center interconnection. I'll explain that with information. After finding this information , I researched AMD, and you know, everyone knows AMD for laptops and desktop PCs or whatever.
But AMD is also heavily involved with data centers and is one of, or is the second largest, producers of graphics cards in the world. And now you can see the link between Nvidia and AMD. Both are focused on data centers. Both are producers of graphics cards. And, yes, you can see here in AMD's investor presentation, AMD's focus on data centers.
They want to become a very, very relevant player within the data center sector, and they are focused here on the cloud and business intelligence, that is, machine learning, AI and other things. And they not only produce graphics cards used for SGPU units for AI and machine learning, but they also produce CPUs, and these CPUs are used in data centers.
AMD grew very quickly in the data center segment, and today they have a market share of around 7%. In 2017 they started with 1%. Then they grew to 5% and now they have 7%. And you can see that this is very, very strong growth in the data center sector. Yes, here you can see that they produce leading processors.
They introduced a new series of processors. I must admit that I have no idea about the details of these processors or the GPU. So that's not my job. My job is really to uncover the theme behind companies and figure out why the charts and technical aspects of those stocks are so strong. I want to know the reason, and that's why I'm delving so deeply into the companies behind this.
Yes, you can see in the investor presentation that the data centers have several slides, and here you can also see the GPU lineup. So, the line of graphics processing units, and they provide the Radeon graphics cards . Here you can see that it is used in the Microsoft Azure cloud. Yes. Yes, and here you can see the growth of AMD's data center; They also participate in supercomputing and, of course, in cloud computing and enterprise solutions.
Here's a roadmap. So they find a lot of information within the investor presentation about the data center and want to become the new leader in data centers. Yes, we'll see if this is successful or not. Then we had a third stock in the group, in the semiconductor group, and this is Infi. I can open the Infi chart here.
Now you can see that it is also very strong, it has a relative strength rating of 97%. That's very good. You can see that Infi has very good estimates for the coming years and for this year. So the EPSs will grow fast. They are 20% above last year's sales. So they had some good foundations. Personally, I don't like the graphic here.
This is too much, it's too volatile. Yes, but perhaps this will improve now when the markets begin to recover. Good. Infi. What does Infi do? They specialize in data center interconnections. So imagine you have multiple data centers and you want to connect them in a very, very, yes, you want to connect the data centers with a very, very fast connection; Well, Infi offers one solution and provides multiple solutions.
For interconnection between data centers up to 100 kilometers away. Actually, when there are two data centers and they want to connect them, they also provide solutions for interconnection within a data center, and you can see that those Infi components are used in multiple areas. Like cloud computing, 5G, of course everyone writes it in the presentation, augmented reality, artificial intelligence and so on and so forth.
And here you can also see the growth of traffic within these sectors. And you can see that, for example, the cloud business here has an estimated growth of 44% and IoT 107%. And then you can see that 5G only has 23%. You know, a lot of people are always talking about 5G, but if I look at all the 5G companies, none of them have a solid foundation and none show signs of growth or demand for 5G components.
So maybe this topic needs a few years to really take off. But we are currently in the data center sector and Infi components are also used in telecommunications. I'll talk about this in a minute. Here you can see Infi's sales of optical interconnect components and it is noticeable that the sales growth comes from the cloud business.
Infi is selling many interconnections to cloud companies or data centers. And Infi not only offers solutions for the cloud business, but also for telecommunications. So if they want to, for example, connect telecommunications centers to each other , they can use a similar technology and they will see that it is also necessary for 5G, for example, to connect those centers.
One interesting thing is that Nvidia bought Mellanox a few months ago. I already mentioned this in the Nvidia section, and it's interesting because Mellanox and Infi do very similar things; Now Nvidia is also entering the interconnection business, and this may boost Nvidia's growth. And this is very interesting because they are currently also thinking about how to interconnect all these GPU applications.
Good. Let's go back to the graphs for a second. I already showed Infi. Let's look at Nvidia for a second. And you can see that Nvidia also has very good estimates for the next two years. They experienced strong growth in EPS and also in sales in the last quarter. They have a very good EPS growth rate over the last five years and also a very good return on equity here.
So, very, very good fundamentals. What I personally don't like is that I don't like this large volume on the negative side. That is, distribution, and what I don't like is that it's a big company, you know, 160 billion, and it also has a lot of shares outstanding and floating. So it 's a very mature company, but maybe , maybe Nvidia also has some fundamentals, some potential, if, for example, you compare it to Intel, which is the number one chip manufacturer in the world.
And Intel also offers similar solutions; it's not as specialized, but it also offers some similar solutions, like Nvidia and, of course, AMD. Let's look at the AMD chart for a second. It only has around 56 billion in market capitalization, so it's a bit smaller than Nvidia, and it also has very good estimates here, 70%, 42% .
This is very good. You can see that EPS, the annual EPS, has also risen very sharply in recent years here. This is a good sign, and also, like Nvidia, AMD has had very good earnings and very good sales growth here in the last quarter. Yes, these are three candidates. There is one more candidate, and that is Sienna.
I want to go to Siena. Sienna also makes interconnections between data centers. So it's very similar to InFi, but you can see that the RS rating isn't as strong. The estimates aren't as strong, and the other fundamentals aren't as solid as those of Nvidia, Infi, and AMD here. Yes, I hope this video has helped you a little to see what I 'm looking for.
You know, I always come from the technical side and look at where the technical strength lies. So what are institutions buying ? And then I delve into the fundamentals and the history, and I always try to find the link between several companies in the same sector. So I want to know what the topic is.
I want to know the story behind the companies that appear on my scanners. And well, yes, I spend most of my time, most of my trading, discovering stories and fundamentals and, well, yes, finding the theme behind the stocks.
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