저자: JoseNajarroStocks · 외국인
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NVDA는 실적 후 횡보, 6/4 등 투자 이벤트 예정. 미중 무역협상 가능성은 반도체 호재로 봄. 웰러 연준 이사의 연내 금리인하 경로 언급. AVGO는 이번 분기 실적 평탄(약 149억 달러) 전망이나 장기 성장 기대. AMD 경영진은 x86 수요 회복과 MI350 클러스터 한계를 언급. 중국 빅테크의 자체 AI칩 전환, TSMC의 UAE 공장 검토 소식. ASML·램리서치·마이크론·퀄컴을 저가 관심 종목으로 제시하며 마이크론은 매수 고려 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to another episode. Today we're going to take a closer look at some recent news impacting Nvidia, the overall semiconductor market. AMD just recently had an event and did showcase some important news. Broadcom has earnings and a lot and a lot more, including a few stocks that I think might be sitting at somewhat attractive levels.
here we can start off with Nvidia. We can see Nvidia right now is kind of quiet after earnings. The stock is sitting at $135. In the past 5 days though, the stock is up about 4%. Now, before the company reported earnings, the stock was sitting at around $136. So, we are pretty much within that price point right now.
after hours. There are some negative sentiments. The stock is down roughly 46%. But actually, let's look at Robin Hood really quick to see what after hours in in Yep. Robin Hood kind of sees the overall market right now a bit reddish. So, I'm going to take a closer look at some macroeconomic news. Now, for Nvidia, I want to say the first thing we should know is this upcoming week, we do have an investor events.
So on June 4th, which is Wednesday, they are going to report at Bank of America Securities for a technology conference. Then next week, we actually have two events. We have a NASDAQ investor conference and we have a technology summit, the age of AI. So all three events I'm going to cover here. Make sure to stay tuned as this is going to be the best place you're going to find any semiconductor news in general.
Now, the first thing I want to the next thing I want to take a closer look at is kind of just some macroeconomic events that might be impacting the overall market. First, we do see that there are reports that suggest that the Trump and China presidents could discuss trade as early as this week, though there has been no date set for the talks um at the moment.
This is kind of coming after a few days where Trump kind of wrote in his tweet in his truth social platform that China has totally violated its agreement with the USA. So we can tell this is going to be another week filled with a lot and a lot of volatility in my opinion especially if we don't get anything out of China now that we do have reports that maybe maybe we might get something this week.
can remember. So the semiconductor market and semiconductor stocks the tariffs on China are very crucial as do a lot of kind of the the finished goods are usually produced in that part of the world. So the finished goods do get hit with some tariffs. So things a trade deal with China definitely would be very very bullish for the tech and semiconductor market.
Then we also did see reports late tonight that Feds Waller outlined pa p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p paths to rate cuts later this year. Uh so I wasn't too familiar who this gentleman was, but Christopher Jaller is a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
So obviously the market is going to see this as maybe a bullish scenario in the long term of things as now there are paths to multiple interest rates cuts this year. Um, now again, this is something that I'm not too too concerned about, but I did want to bring it up to you as investors, as maybe some of you might follow the Fed market and the rate market a little bit closer than I do.
Now, kind of coming back here to a market that I'm very familiar with, Broadcom. Broadcom is reporting earnings this week. I do believe they report on Thursday. Now, Broadcom is one of the few semiconductor stocks that is still green. We can see year to date the stock is up roughly 4%. Yes, I'm saying I I mean just a prime example, we can see uh Nvidia is down actually 2% and some of the other stocks that we're going to look at like AMDs are also down.
So Broadcom is one kind of destroying the market. So congratulations to Broadcom shareholders. Now I'm going to join here on fat.io. Remember I do have kind of that special offer if you want to learn more with this platform. Uh fat.io/hose. But here we can kind of see the overall numbers of consensus of what the market is expecting for this upcoming quarter.
And we can see in the most recent quarter it was about 14.9 billion. Now in this quarter it's actually the consensus has pretty much a flat quarter of 14.974. Um and obviously the range is a little bit higher could be almost closer to 16 billion in the most bullish sentiment. Um but overall the market and the overall average do expect this to be kind of a sequential flat year for Broadcom.
Now obviously Broadcom analysts are expecting this but I wonder if these numbers are true how the overall market might react to a flat flat quarter and obviously during the earnings a few topics of discussion are going to be most likely Nvidia with the NVLink fusion. Why did Brocom opt out of being a partner in that part in that partnership?
I do believe most of us do know the answer. Brockcom doesn't want to share the revenue that they have and their overall margins which make perfect sense. Do we have any update to the total addressable market? Do we have any updates with the AI chip custom players that they provide? And any updates on the long-term potential?
So, even though the overall quarter might be flat overflat on a quarter-over-quarter basis, we still do expect some strong year-over-year growth numbers. Now, the next topic I want to take a closer look at is AMD. So AMD is sitting at $110 and then this past week it did have an event on May 28th. Now this was Mark Papermaster which is the CTO and executive VP of technology and there are three things from this event that I think investors should know.
First he was kind of talking a little bit against Nvidia or or or some topics that maybe you can kind of say were a subtle dig at Nvidia. So he does mention that there has been massive investments in the AI market in just the last 12 to 18 months as you are seeing kind of this building of AI capability and the main reason is no one could be could afford to be left behind and that's what we're seeing in the AI space right you need to invest you can't be left behind but he mentions now he's kind of seeing some rationalizations with the companies they're doing business with now they're seeing that they've these businesses they've invested a lot in AI and they've gotten the low hanging ing fruit of how they're applying AI into their overall plan.
But but they did realize that their old workloads are not going away, right? They still have to refresh their server farm. They still have to do all the other applications that do really well in x86 CPUs. So what Mark here is trying to say is that look, yes, we did kind of see this heavy investments in AI.
Our competitor in the AI space, Nvidia, benefited dramatically from it. But now as we're starting to see some rationalization and some kind of calmness in the market, some of our most of our customers that they're dealing with are seeing that we need to go back and improve our x86 architecture or x86 solutions because there's so many workloads that still run on this type of platform.
So maybe that could be seen as a bullish scenario for AMD. Now the other thing is they did announce a little bit about the MI350 and the MI350 is going to be able to build clusters of thousands of GPUs. He does mention that not hundreds of thousands but just thousands of GPUs that they will be built around the MI350 and then again the MI450 will full scalability for even the most demanding training workloads.
So, we can see that one of the biggest issues with the overall AI market is connectivity. And that is something Nvidia has done really well, right? They're building these massive AI infrastructure without hundreds and thousands of GPUs. Eventually, we're going to get to the millions. Mark Papermaster kind of just showcases that AMD is still not there yet with the MI350.
with the MI350 they will build clusters of tens of thousands of GPUs but but they won't do it in the 100,000 market. So that is in that that's I mean it it kind of showcases that yes they're improving but at least the market that they're in is still kind of limiting them a little bit compared to where the big player Nvidia is.
Now I want to take a closer look at some news impacting the overall market. So this is kind of more focusing on Nvidia, but there are reports that Chinese tech giants like Alibaba, Tensson, and BU are accelerating development of homegrown AI chips as US export restrictions limit NV Nvidia GPU supplies.
So in the past, there are reports that these top Chinese companies have been hoarding inventory of Nvidia GPUs, but that inventory will eventually kind of die out within the next few months. and these companies know that. So, they're going to start investing in either Huawei's AIG GPUs or they're signing their own AIGPU market.
So, interesting to see this transitioning happening pretty pretty quickly. Now, kind of staying here with international news, there are reports that TSMC is reportedly in talks with the White House officials to discuss the possibility of opening a chip fab in the UAE. Now, it is reported that this isn't the first time that a chipmaker has explored putting a mega factory in the UAE.
Samsung and TSMC have actually talked about it in 2024. Unfortunately, with the prior administration, it led nowhere. Now, sources say that Washington right now is still kind of thinking about it, but there are a lot of risks to kind of think about. First is obviously national security with UAE tending to have some ties with maybe some adversaries of the United States.
it might not be the best thing. The second thing is building a manufacturing plant. There's only limited amount of talent and with building a manufacturing plant in another part of the world kind of reduce the strength of the plant that they're building here in the United States. So, this is pretty interesting.
Something we're going to have to kind of listen through to the upcoming quarters. But definitely definitely I I I don't know. I'm not sure why I'm not a huge fan of something like this. Now, I mentioned in the beginning that I wanted to look at four stocks that maybe are sitting at some attractive levels.
Out of the four, I only own two. Uh, so let me just start with that. The first one I don't own. This one is ASML. I do believe ASML. I mean, look, in the past year is down nearly 24%. I believe the overall market right now is going to benefit dramatically from ASML's machine. I mean, you have new fabs being built and you also have a new generation and technology as chips get smaller and smaller.
Similar with that, Lamb Research is another one. This is a fan favorite of mine. Year to uh year to date, the stock is actually up 11.5%. Uh but we can see the stock from its overall 52- week peak is down roughly 28%. So Lamb Research, another one that I do believe can benefit from the semiconductor equipment phase.
I also believe since they deal a lot in the memory market, the HBM space can definitely give them some growth. Now, looking at uh what I would consider a little bit higher risk, higher more growth reward, and this is one that I'm actually really liking at these price points. I'm not going to lie. And that is Marll Technology.
I know there's risk behind it. The stock, this is one that if you watch my channels, I did not like it at the 110s, in the 120s. Did not did not like it. But now here in the 60s, I really do enjoy it. And this is one that I'm really really debating adding on to. I mean, I do believe the AI market is pretty strong for them and I do believe a lot of the risk has been eliminated with this massive, massive valuation dump.
Now, the last one I want to mention is Qualcomm. Qualcomm is usually a very boring company. Um, but I do believe that they have a nice amount of long-term tailwinds. Again, not short-term tailwinds, but long-term tailwinds. You have kind of the robotics market, the internet of things, the augmented reality, the virtual reality glasses, the smart glasses in general.
They have great partnerships with Meta Platforms with uh Google all who are developing kind of the next generation of mobile devices in forms of smart glasses in forms of other components as well. So um Qualcomm one to kind of take a closer look at as well down nearly 30% in the past year and from its overall 52- week high the stock is down roughly 36%.
So again brocom is one I'm not a fan of in the 200s. This stock did see a nice rally during this whole AI at the local phase and I wasn't really digging it too much right now. Right now I do believe there is some opportunity here but this one is more of a long-term player in my opinion that if their markets does kind of show some great indic growth uh Qualcomm can definitely benefit.
So, uh, I'm I'm I'm going to start adding maybe some sections like this where I just do a quick breakdown of four stocks or a few stocks that might be looking a little bit attractive. And if you want me to do a little bit more deep dive or research on them, let me know in the comments below. So take care have a good day and see you all next
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