저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인과 주식시장(S&P500, 다우)의 상관관계를 다룬 영상으로 결론은 두 시장이 상관관계가 거의 없다는 것이다. 시장 개요: 전체 코인 시가총액 약 1331억 달러, 24시간 거래량 약 189억 달러, 비트코인 도미넌스 51.8%로 전일 대비 시총이 약 51억 달러 늘었다고 진행자는 설명한다. 상관관계 논의: 기사 인용으로 비트코인은 미국 주식이 장 초반 상승 후 하락하는 동안 오르는 반대 움직임을 보였다고 한다. 그러나 펀드매니저 Anthony Pompliano는 비트코인과 전통 주식시장 간 상관관계가 없다고 봤고, 180일 기준 디지털자산과 S&P500의 상관계수는 0에 가깝다고 주장한다. 예일대 연구도 비트코인 가격 움직임이 주류 시장 사건과 거의 무관하다고 봤다는 점을 언급한다. 지수 참고: S&P500은 당시 약 2500 수준으로 10~12월 고점 2900 대비 하락 후 반등 중이었다. 차트 분석(진행자 개인 견해): 라이트코인은 역헤드앤숄더 패턴 형성 가능성, 35달러 부근 목표 가능성을 언급. 비트코인은 3588 지지 후 반등했으나 단기 과매수에 가까워져 조정 가능성을 우려하며, 조정 시 3770 수준까지 예상. 이더리움은 상승 추세선 재돌파 여부를 주목. 스텔라루멘(XLM)은 지지 확인 후 추가 상승을 예상하고 단기 저항 돌파를 기대한다. 리스크: 진행자는 차트 기반 단기 판단이며 투자 조언이 아님을 전제로 한다. 시장 하락 가능성과 과매수 신호에 따른 조정 가능성을 함께 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 펀드매니저는 비트코인 펀더멘털이 전통 시장보다 낫다고 보고 장기적으로 상승 잠재력이 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
what's going on YouTube hitting back making another brand new crypto TV episode in today's video we will be discussing like wayne bitcoin etherium as well as xlm 2 BTC as always if you guys are new to the channel make sure to subscribe turn on post notifications leave a charm thumbs up if you like the content furthermore in today's episode we will also be discussing the correlation and causation between Bitcoin cryptocurrency like coin and the stock market sp500 Dow Jones Nasdaq is there a correlation between the two it's definitely a brought up topic it's actually getting quite a lot of popularity so I did want to be discussing that with you today um otherwise before we jump into today's episode yesterday night at like 9 p.m.
I live currently on Long Island I was in a story of Queens yesterday and I was driving home like I said 9 p.m. when all of a sudden the whole sky it was pitch black turned bright blue bright blue and I was freaking out I thought there were aliens coming to attack you know Long Island in Queens and New York City turns out con Edison in Astoria which is a huge power plant power plant exploded or it's not a transformer but like some type of electric neuron something exploded in the power plant and was so bright and so powerful that it lit up the entire sky blue so check out I'm gonna you know post a couple videos of it happening and I think it's pretty wild definitely uh so surprisingly nobody was hurt but so you know check it out let me know what you think in the comments down below otherwise let's jump into today's episode and get into the TA all right so we are currently on the coin market cap and as you guys can see the market cap is 133 point 1 billion as you we can also see that the 24-hour volume is 18.9 we also have a Bitcoin dominance of 51 point eight so what I can tell you from that is we are actually up quite a bit from yesterday's market cap I think we've increased by about I'd like to say five point one bill so we are definitely moving upwards we're seeing the markets slowly increase and we will discuss why that is in a second also 24 hour volume went from around 20 billion two days ago to 14 and now we're at 18 billion so four billion has been added to the 24 hour volume on the exchanges also Bitcoin dominance is slightly decreasing from yesterday so things are definitely looking good positive markets are moving back up that is obviously something beautiful to see another key thing to point out is I'm now noticing that like coin is now back in number 7 spot up 15% on the day absolutely phenomenal rest of the market the actually the entire market is is doing great and crazy and that's what I wanted to talk about in reference to cryptocurrency is the stock market at all correlated I know core correlation doesn't mean causation but is there a tie at all between the markets and cryptocurrency that is what we're gonna be discussing in today's episode as you guys can see though the markets are beautifully do they're doing beautiful everything is in green everything is doing wild eternal token is 126 percent that is huge but otherwise as you guys can see Bitcoin is is attempting to break 4000 dollars once again XRP up 5.9% up at 37 cents a theory about 13% 137 Bitcoin cash up 12% at 176 litecoin up 14.5 percent at 33 26 everything is doing beautifully tethered and one of those points that just doesn't really move right now at one dollar only at 0.1% we're pretty much blasting off like when again about to break that two billion dollar mark in terms of market cap but what I really want to discuss with you yes we will be looking over like coin tikona 3m xlm but what I really wanted to discuss was the correlation potentially between stocks and crypto I know recently when I've been watching the news and stuff we've definitely been discussing the S&P 500 Dow Jones where these stocks are headed looking at Amazon stock I know has been down quite a bit too and I wanted to see if there's any correlation between the two so I didn't want to just look at those there is an article though that I did found I'm CCN calm says news flash Bitcoin price pops higher as Dow and S&P 500 erase pre market gains so yes the market was up the SP 500 the Dow Jones but it started to you know dump lower and Bitcoin prices actually decided to move up higher much higher to be precise so as we can see here the Bitcoin price and the wider crypto market made a fevered leap back toward the recent highs on Friday shaking off there's a substantial sell-off like we saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average the sp500 and other US markets indicates if we fell back into a decline so it seems like from what we can understand now if we you know play dumb as if we're just new it seems like they traded an opposite markets you know stock markets fiat money is down not necessarily fiat money but the stocks the shares are down and crypto is up so is there a relationship between those two we then see Bitcoin had a languishing near the $3,600 level we pretty much made a near run to $4,000 which you can see right here beautifully drawn out this is looking at the I can't even see if this is the four-hour the one-hour but either way you can see a massive jump but this is starting at 3,600 making a leap all the way to 4,000 or near 5,000 we can also see we also pivoted downwards on the S&P 500 the Dow Jones that is what I wanted to show you guys it says notably while the crypto market is not directly correlated in traditional equities bitcoins moved to the north occurred in tandem with the stock market break to the downside you know you see that opposite relationship both the Dow and the S&P posted notable drops in the hours following Friday's opening bell racing pre market gains that have suggested stocks would end the week on a high note as of the time of writing misses out was down 85 points thirty seven point three seven percent and SP was down 0.28% well a sec flash a point for a percent decline so then I did a little more research dug into it and I found that Bitcoin is not correlated with stock markets says fund manager analyst so anthalie Anthony papiano maintains that Bitcoin shares no correlation with the traditional stock market for the Morgan Creek digital assets chief there's only a best minor psychological relationship between both asset classes brought on by traders with diversified portfolios containing stocks and Kryptos and then it says Bitcoin has proven to be non correlated so we saw that they were opposite now they're saying they're not correlated at all or even if they are correlated it doesn't mean one caused the other if you look at the correlation between digital assets in the S&P 500 over the last 180 days it's at zero if you look at it compared to the dollar index it's near zero it has proven that it be non correlated and I expect that to continue so it's very interest you can also see CNBC is also talking about it you know is it tied with the markets it's definitely becoming a popular trend so I didn't want to make a video on that before it became dull the counter argument would be that both markets are down however for Pamplona this has more to do with psychological factors than anything related to credible data in the past many stakeholders have argued whether Bitcoin shares any correlation with traditional markets we've discussed that to a Yale study published earlier in the year showed Bitcoin price action had little to do with the events in the mainstream market the timing of the downturn in both markets could just likely be coincidental so that's another interesting trend there is a little more information on here you know going into whether or not you know Bitcoin is that a low already if it's going to head lower like last time Bitcoin traded at the level was in 2017 before its massive massive price surge that took it to nearly $20,000 in the days leading to xmas BTC decided to significant you know shoot up in price so basically it says despite the year long bear market the Morgan Creek digital asset she believes it is the asset class or believes in the asset class he knows notes that Bitcoin fundamentals which are driven purely by mathematics and code were far better than those in traditional market landscape so just because he says they're not Cohen they're not correlated doesn't mean he's you know negative or anti either of the he does think there's a lot of potential with it Bitcoin and crypto so he definitely believes in the company and he believes in crypto and he believes in Bitcoin that there is potential for it to move higher so let me know in the comments down below do you agree with Anthony poppley uh know that Bitcoin isn't correlated at all with traditional stock markets let me know in the comments down below so I then wanted to just pull up the S&P 500 as you can see I just googled S&P 500 on Google and you can see we are currently actually up 3.9% but we are at $2,500 and you can see shifting our focus to October so October November December almost three months now we were at a high of $2,900 you can see and we have recently decided to fall and pull back down we reached a low of 23:51 so 2351 we were at 2900 at our peak now at 20 we were at 2300 we're currently trading at 2500 so a huge fluctuation but in the end we're down quite a bit does that have any relationship to do a crypto you know like coin and Bitcoin and crypto has been going down to is a relationship with it they're both down right now and you can see it's actually doing fairly okay right now but they did say that they were you know opposite oppositely correlated another thing we're looking at litecoin right now on its daily umm what's interesting you know somebody said there was an inverse Head & Shoulders forming I'm trying to piece this out right now and it's interesting I am kind of seeing what they're talking about you can see the inverse Head & Shoulders is forming on the daily oops let me just draw that so that is very possible that is very possible that we're seeing this I can even move this down a little lower this could potentially be the inverse Head & Shoulders that we're seeing on like coins formation definitely something to keep a note of and an eye about it's definitely making an interesting move we'll see if we can complete it I do think we're gonna move up to like $35 around that region before we can see whether or not we're going to break out from the you know from the inverse headed shoulders it's such interesting I'm trying to take it all in right now we are treating at around 53 on the relative strength indicator so there is plenty of potential to move us up higher on the daily let's check out the for our if we're overbought now what a wild like change of events you can see we were overbought back only a couple days ago I believe today is the 28th ok so around 10 days ago we were overbought and we've pulled back down for the previous ten days bottom doubt right here at 28 and 27 50 and then we're blowing up you know exploding back upwards we saw that Green Bay and crossed below the red band indicator of going lower currently you can see we then reversed hit a very very very strong support at that level and are currently flying back up so I do think 35 is going to be the reagent to test a very interesting you know reversal nobody was really expecting that to blow up that quickly but it did um furthermore let's move on to Bitcoin there we go Bitcoin doing the same thing we actually drew a support right here and you can see where that ties into it's actually quite nice looking right there beautiful so you can see a few things we do have previous support right here so in this region that we're at there was a lot of support indicating that a reversal could happen we're on the 4:00 hour right now you can see obviously one two we had wicks down here but the main one was right here you can see we had a clear resistance back on December 9th and then we fell much lower catching a support down at 3100 you can see previously we were kind of caught up or tied up with the high-low a may on the 4:00 hour and then we fell broke bearish hit 3588 which is clearly a nice support level and we exploded back up we were extremely overbought previously back on the 24th so only four days ago and now you can see we're nearing overbought so that's one indicator that I'm kind of getting a little nervous about yes we're back above Lehigh omma that is definitely a good thing to see and you know with the green band being below I don't think it is caught up yet to say that we're overextended so I do think we're gonna hang out in these price ranges for a couple more days before maybe potentially pulling back down lower but otherwise it doesn't look you know half bad you know where we are facing some resistance up here we're nearing overbought on bitcoins for our so that's another indicator that we could be you know holding off a little too long up here but you know with a pullback you know I can only see us going back down like 37 70 which isn't really much of a decline this is the big one that I wanted to discuss with you guys a theorem is making huge progress right now so we did discussed and I did say in yesterday's video we found a secure uptrend on thorium's daily and we wanted to see whether or not this was going to hold true and clearly it did we discussed that with the bearish break that candle was not fully closed yet it did manage to close below which was unfortunate we did see that but we said we're waiting to see whether or not we could get right back into this uptrend you know the biggest issue was this resistance right here at around 131 the uptrend and we were discussing whether or not we could build up enough volume and pressure to push us back into the the uptrend so this is the triangle that it made and there was a lot of resistance right here this was a lot of resistance and we were trying to figure out whether or not this candle could break the clearly a resistance now but it is now acting as a support that uptrend and with enough support as you guys can see we blew right up past that and we're currently trading back in here so we're looking for this candle now to close up through his candle to close above the uptrend and then we should continue to move up beautiful moves in terms of where you know aetherium is expected to move to now looking at xlm on its daily before we wrap things up as you guys can see we pretty much found another support like we've had in the past at around this price right over here you know this is startle Lubitz to Bitcoin on by Nance so that is why I don't rather not read the numbers it's point zero zero zero zero to nine n8 for all those who want to know where that line is if you wanted to draw that we have plenty of room to move higher on xlm so I am kind of Pro xlm right now I do think to continue to move up we're only at 43 on the RSI I do think we're gonna hit some resistance up at this uptrend right here but I do think that's where we're headed next so I think within a couple of days we should be retesting that support or that resistance and then I do think we're gonna break above that have some play with the high-low MMA but at least we'll be back in the you know symmetrical formation that's happening otherwise that's gonna sum up today's episode if you're new to the channel make sure to subscribe turn on post notifications leave a giant thumbs up if you like the content and I'll see you guys in tomorrow's episode peace
Comments 0