저자: Dylan·Anthony · 외국인
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결론: 출연자들은 TLT(장기국채 ETF) 매수 관점을 제시하며, 채권 가격이 금리 고점 이후 상승할 가능성이 높다고 본다. 채권 가격과 수익률은 역의 관계이므로 금리가 내려가면 TLT 가격이 오른다는 기본 원리를 설명했다. 기술적 분석: TLT가 약 110 부근 저항선을 아직 돌파하지 못한 상태이며, 최근 고점 흐름과 저점 상승 구조를 언급했다. 2012~2019년 평균 가격은 약 135 수준으로 제시됐다. 금리 수준: 약 4% 수익률 부근이 좋은 진입 구간이라고 보았고, 4.05% 부근에서 하락했다가 4.1% 수준으로 반등한 점을 언급했다. 수익률 곡선 역전: 단기 금리가 장기 금리보다 높은 역전이 지속되고 있으며, 이는 경기침체의 경고 신호로 해석됐다. 과거 역전 후 경기침체 사례를 언급했다. 진입 전략: 106~99 구간(노란 선)을 분할 매수 구간으로 제시했고, 저항선 상향 돌파 시에는 위험 대비 수익이 나빠진다고 했다. 거시 전망: 파월 연준 의장과 JP모건 제이미 다이먼의 발언을 인용해 은행 신용 긴축이 경기에 큰 영향을 줄 것이라 보았다. 향후 6개월~1년 내 경기 둔화가 빠르게 나타날 수 있다고 전망했다. 옵션 전략: 출연자 중 한 명은 장기 콜옵션(LEAPS)을 고려했으나, 주식 직접 보유가 더 안정적이라는 견해도 있다. 2년짜리 장기 옵션이 적합하다고 언급했다. 주식 대비 전망: TLT가 S&P 500과 나스닥보다 상대적으로 높은 수익을 낼 가능성이 있으며, S&P 500의 현재 상승은 지속 가능성이 낮다고 평가했다. 리스크: 시장이 2년간 횡보하는 흐름도 가능하다고 언급했으며, 금리 하락이 지연되면 수익이 제한될 수 있다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys trade stocks I am Dylan and I'm Anthony we're going to talk about a trade that Michael burry initially did then he sold too early I made a bunch of money it's really my only way that I make money and now we're gonna try to make money the opposite direction taking advantage of bonds and bond yields so this is pretty interesting we're going to take a look two stupid ghost dogs boom oh yeah our old friends here talking about the the inverse nature of bond prices and bond yields okay it's a little bit complicated highly if you're not used to this maybe watch a separate video entirely about this but basically the yield is like you're discounting back the interest rate so the price of the bond has to fall as the yields go up okay and the same the reverse is opposite okay um it reverse is correct as well all right I know it gets really confusing because you're talking about things kind of going back and forth here but the main lesson is that prices and yields are opposite of each other when it comes to bots that's all that that's all that I know I don't know anything beyond that and it's still my most successful trade other than showing Nicola so um well obviously if you watch this channel we are talking about TLT my baby um we're coming to a point I'm going to zoom in and out of this but we are coming to a very interesting point in the technical analysis here now technical analysis when you're looking at TLT it's not as it's like you're looking at a stock it's it's not really the same but it's a it's a 20-year Bond ETF so as you can see we are kind of coming up to a point at about 110 ish where we still have not passed above it all right if we zoom in closer you can see we are doing higher highs and higher lows but some stuff just came out and it it may actually give us an entry price so when we zoom out this is since like 2002.
all right long time you can see how high this was before covid before we we generally the average price between like 2012 and and 2019 I'm taking out the covid madness because I was kind of anomaly it was about like 135. so we have a pretty high price we it's a pretty high return bonds can't really stay where they're at right now all right now this is what Vinnie said right so the percentage the yields um as these go down bond prices go up bond prices mean in this case TLT all right yeah now we hit four for like a a little bit dip below it this is like 4.05 we and then we drop down and then like 4.1 for if you can get in this at around a four percent yield it's I mean that's a beautiful entry it's just we can't stay above it where we just keep on falling back down um yeah Vinnie is going to describe some interesting aspects of this so you know people kind of consider the bond prices to be like the smart money in the market a little bit um Bond valuations are really complicated like mathematical formulas but they kind of show us a stupid Equity Traders if you will some interesting stuff the the inverted yield here the reason why this is interesting is that you're getting a higher return on shorter dated bonds and longer dated bonds right longer data bonds that should typically have greater risk right because like there's a wider cone of what could be going on 10 years down the road than there is two years down the road right so there's more inherent risk there so you should be getting paid much more in terms of the you know risk premium that yield for longer data bonds but we haven't been for for several months now all right the this is often seen as a warning sign for recession you know if you're looking at all these previous spikes here the under the red portions where we're getting up significantly above this like in you know kind of even inverted yield there you know you're seeing uh following these gray shaded sections here right after right these are all recessions right and we're not quite to the to the level that we were back in the 80s here when the last time we had like crazy inflation but we're well above what we saw before the dot you know the.com crash and the 2008 financial crisis so there's a lot to be kind of optimistic here if you want to think about taking a long-term bullets position on TLT at this point because the levels we're at here are unlikely to remain for a long period of time yeah and the most thesis and just to throw out this it's so zoomed out but this it hit the inversion criteria in October and I'm going to show you what that looks like on TLT because it's very clear what happened there but to reiterate what vinegar said this is the worst it's been out of all of this except for this 1980 period since like 1981 but we we're also beating this like 1974 period too so yeah it's not good um but you know bonds it's they can't be where they're at forever it it's you know apple is a safe investment right you can probably put money in that and it should go higher but it could also pull a 2009 to 2015 and not move for six years whereas bonds you should get a decent return because of how weird and crazy this actually is right now um now we're filming this on April 8th so April 7th the market was closed but because of the jobs report that was seen they the yields actually had their biggest daily gain so we are going to be approaching tlt's going to be approaching that four percent near it again which could be a pretty decent entry so these two lines is I I have this on my chart you know it you never know what's going to happen um in my opinion I think 106 to 99 these two yellow lines is a good place to scale in it'd be a good place to add into a position of TLT if it does break above this red line with some Force then you know it might be too late you could add there but you're you're winning Ratio or your risk to reward is not near as good I do want to show one thing it's crazy low it was October that was when we started the yield curve yeah inversion yeah yeah so previously you had played this um by buying long dated put contracts on TLT like I said inspired by Michael burry uh is your thought that you're going to play this on opposite by long dated call options now is that kind of your leaps if you will yeah you know I if I had not gotten screwed on the options in the short aspect probably yes but I almost feel safer just doing shares okay she's just gonna buy into it okay yeah be you know it it's a safe investment I think it's very possible that the market as a whole jumps around and is a chop show for like two years just because of all the weird damage that's been done and I think TLT will probably outpace the market in terms of gains versus the S P 500 and the queues um if you're watching this we've already put out a video on how the SP 500 it it's kind of unrealistic in the gains that it's put out and I don't think it's sustainable so I do think that this is a pretty solid trade I don't know if I'm gonna do leaps if it drops down to 100 I'll do a leap all right I got you I was I was just kind of curious just from like a logistical standpoint you know it's definitely a very uh interesting compelling trade and I actually think that this may play out faster than you would think um you know Powell's very kind of cautious in talking about the bank failures and how that credit tightening as a result is going to have a much bigger impact on the U.S economy um than even like a rate increase and JP Morgan uh Jamie Diamond over there just came out with his annual letter last week and he also talked about how the financial crisis or bank failures are not over and that he does kind of foresee a significant financial tightening in terms of credit risk and we're already talking about things that were extremely extended see our separate video about housing costs and we can do another one on cars if you want to um but you're you're going to be putting a lot of brakes on the economy very very quickly over the next six months to a year so it may play out sooner than you think yeah a two-year leap would be what I'd be looking at that's the only time time frame that I would feel comfortable with you pay a lot more for it but I mean the safety and the Theta Decay protection is pretty huge so yeah all right all right guys think about it yep give us a like And subscribe and let us know if you're going to take this have a good one okay thanks
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