저자: DanIves · 한국인
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결론: 금리·인플레 우려와 중동 긴장 속에서도 기업 차입과 제조업 둔화, 유가 변동성이 시장 부담이며, 테슬라와 AI 투자는 장기 성장 관점에서 긍정적으로 제시됨. 금리와 기업 부채: 미 기업들이 금리 상승에도 차입을 빠르게 늘리고 있으며, 2020년 말 10억 달러 차입 연간 이자 약 1,700만 달러에서 최근 약 6,200만 달러로 증가. 파월 연준의 소비·투자 억제 목표와 상충. 비우량 기업 부채 확대 우려, 파산 기업 150개 이상. 제조업 둔화: 3분기 실적 부진, 고금리와 유럽·중국 약세가 부담. S&P500 산업 지수는 8월 고점 대비 약 10% 하락. ISM 공급자 납기지수 9월 46.4로 50 미만, 수요 둔화 신호. 알스톰 주가는 이번 주 약 40% 급락해 2005년 이후 최저, 재고 과잉 문제 지적. 금리 전망: 9월 고용지표 강세(비농업 고용 33.4만 명, 예상 상회)로 연준 추가 인상 가능성 상승. 11월 인상 확률 18%에서 27%로 상승. 지정학·유가: 하마스의 이스라엘 공격 후 유가 급등, 안전자산 수요로 금과 달러 상승. 이스라엘·팔레스타인은 주요 산유국이 아니며, 사우디 생산 차질이 없다면 유가 영향은 제한적이라는 GasBuddy 측 견해. AI 투자: KPMG 조사에서 CEO 최우선 투자 순위는 AI. 미국 CEO 3분의 2 이상이 생성형 AI 투자를 최우선으로 꼽았고, 3~5년 내 62% 투자수익률 예상. 테슬라: Dan Ives는 테슬라가 다음 성장 단계에 진입한다고 주장. 10월 9일 종가 259.67달러 언급. 후륜구동 Model 3 가격은 작년 12월 약 4,700달러 대비 약 17% 하락한 3,900달러로 역대 최저. 지난 6개월 테슬라 주가 40.5% 상승, 미국 업종 26.2% 대비 우위. 베를린·오스틴 기가팩토리 증산, 세미트럭·사이버트럭 신모델, 에너지저장(메가팩) 성장 기대. IRA 관련 그린에너지 수혜 언급. 투자 태도: 찰리 멍거 인용, 장기 보유와 복리 효과 강조.
다듬은 글
everyone! It reversed its losses on Monday despite interest rate and inflation concerns adding the geopolitical risk of conflict in the Middle East. How will the stock market behave this week when third quarter earnings are released? Let’s find out together . Hello? 'American stocks are coveted' American companies are ignoring Jay Powell and taking on debt The recent surge in bond yields may have cooled the market, but the pace of borrowing is accelerating rapidly Over the past 18 months, Jerome Powell has been trying to get Americans into the habit of borrowing and spending.
There has been a frantic effort to break this. This is very important in the fight against inflation. But mid-investment grade companies, or companies that are considered less financially stable, have continued to increase their debt . Borrowing $1 Billion in the U.S. bond market costs the average annual interest in 2020 At the end of the year, it was $17 million, but it recently increased to $62 million.
This is data collected by Bloomberg. Among the more than 150 companies that filed for bankruptcy this year, Bed Bath & Beyond and Party City are the biggest risk . The growth in corporate lending over the past 18 months has been mostly in North America, with investment-grade borrowings in Europe adding $150M, significantly less than in the previous period.
Meanwhile, in Asia, hand borrowing costs fell by about $70 million. “ One of our goals is to influence spending and investment decisions,” Jerome Powell said. Manufacturers face shaky third-quarter results High interest rates and weakness in Europe and China are putting pressure on the sector The first Friday of October, October 6, is observed as Manufacturing Day.
It's Manufacturing Day, but I was cautious about celebrating it. An update is scheduled for Fastenal, which is an indicator of Delta Air and manufacturing groups. The S &P 500 industrial index fell about 10% from its August peak due to rising interest rates and weak European manufacturing. On the screen you can see ISM's Supplier Delivery Index.
On September 30th, it dropped to 46.4. It's below 50. Any number above 50 means slow delivery, which generally indicates high demand. Alstom, the train manufacturer. The company overordered parts and materials to avoid factory shutdowns and delivery delays. Now that the supply chain situation has improved, it is said to be suffering from 'excess inventory'.
Alstom's stock price plunged about 40% this week, to its lowest level since 2005. When we check the reason, we recorded a shortage of working capital due to inventory accumulation. The customer's waiting time for delivery became too long, so he ordered defective materials for 2 years. The lead time to produce goods improved, but the number of orders decreased, resulting in losses .
Core inflation measures are supporting the Fed's hike in long-term interest rates. A hot September jobs report is complicating the Fed's next move. The 334,000 additional nonfarm payrolls were higher than economists expected . The risk of further interest rate hikes has increased. Last Friday, the possibility of a November interest rate hike rose 27%, up from 18% the previous week.
Hamas attacked Israel last weekend, and oil prices jumped to their highest since early this month. Gold prices have risen and the dollar has risen due to demand for havens. Will oil prices continue to rise in the future? Israel and Palestine are not major oil producers. Their neighbor Saudi Arabia is the world leader in oil exports.
The crisis is occurring in these major oil producing countries. Patrick, director of gas price tracking company GasBuddy, said Saudi Arabia is a major oil exporter, as it has been in the past. He said that unless there is a war in Arabia, it will not have a significant impact on oil prices. AI is the top investment priority of CEOs.
This is data from a KPMG survey. Artificial intelligence is the top investment priority of business leaders. KPMG surveyed 400 CEOs. In a survey conducted on U.S. CEOs, more than two-thirds of U.S. CEOs chose investing in generative AI as their company's top priority, and predicted that a 62% return on investment would be achieved within three to five years.
Here's a look at some Tesla news: Den Ives said Tesla will enter its next phase of growth Closed at $259.67 on Monday Tesla's price continues to fall Model 3 now sells for the lowest price ever Achieving year-end target Tesla prices have been falling all year. Last December, the price of the rear-wheel drive Model 3 started at about $4,700, but now it has fallen about 17% to $3,900.
It is the lowest price ever. Tesla has a strong battery storage business. Growth is ahead. Zacks Research published a report. Over the past six months, Tesla's stock price has outperformed the U.S. industry. Tesla has increased 40.5%, while the U.S. industry has increased 26.2%. Let's look at the key details.
Gigafactory 4's 'Berlin' ' and Gigafactory 5 'Austin' increased production, and the introduction of new models, including semis and cybertrucks, are expected to drive long-term delivery growth. Reduced debt levels and strong potential for the charging business are also positive. Tesla's battery storage business is poised for strong growth.
Megapack and power storage products are in high demand and are growing as fast as Tesla can increase production. It is a significant revenue driver for Tesla and has a potential market size compared to the auto industry. It's almost limitless. We're putting $400M into our IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act, to encourage the purchase of green energy technologies.
It 's aligned well with Tesla's business of designing, manufacturing and selling products that accelerate the renewable energy transition, folks! Charlie Munger says, “Big money is not in buying and selling, but in waiting.” He said that patience pays off and unleashes the power of compound interest.
If you make a profit from your investments, you can reinvest this profit and grow it over time. It can lead to exponential growth. I hope you will be patient and realize profits at the right time, and grow it with compound interest. Was today's video useful? If you found it useful, please subscribe and like. Thank you.
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