저자: Stockology Insider · 외국인
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In the video, Edardini analyzes the recent market rebound influenced by a temporary trade truce between the US and China, leading him to raise his S&P 500 target for the year end from 6,000 to 6,400 while lowering recession fears. Yardini notes that the economy has thrived despite political challenges, suggesting that market data will be interpreted in light of tariff developments.
uh with the tariff uncertainty and capital spending. For all the concerns that uncertainty would uh put uh a a a hammer to capital spending, the reality is technology capital spending, which now accounts for over 50% of total capital spending, remains very strong. So maybe it's a counterfactual. Uh could you could you say it's a a win in the J Pal camp, but maybe also a win in the Trump camp in that the economy has held up I think a lot better than had been expected.
I don't know if you read I I think he's a good friend of yours or a friend of yours over the years. You've read him. Greg had a piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning saying you know the outcome of what took place yesterday might be where you want to be. How we got there might not be how you want to how you want to get there.
Having said that, it also appears that this economy has been so strong in some ways that we've managed to get there despite all of that. Meaning, what would have happened had we not been approaching these tariffs this way? Andrea, I've been doing this for a few years, and one of the things I've concluded is that it's amazing how well the US economy and stock market do despite Washington.
So, we we all pay a lot of attention to the headline news on Washington. and you folks do a great job of covering the the political developments and the economic developments coming out of the uh the beltway, but the reality is working the rest of us working stiffs do a really good job of keeping the economy moving forward and figuring out how to live with the government's meddling in terms of CPI.
What's your expectation? I think the uh headline will be 0.2. I'm expecting to see some uh moderating impact from energy prices and at the same time if you take look at core I would expect to see 0.3 but even if it turns out to be hotter than expected I think the market will attribute it to the tariff situation.
We know that used car prices for example jumped in in April and that probably had to do with the 25% tariff on imported cars having an impact on the entire auto industry. So, I think the market would look I think the market's already looking at 2026. I think the market's concluded enough of this noise.
Let's see where we where we we're probably going to get signal and good signal. And that'll be later this year into 2026. So, we don't need to worry about no one ever buying a a Treasury again or or a capital flight out of out of the US or none of that. None of that happened. Yeah. Or or do we see it or do we see it?
Remember the last uh jobs number we said this would be a big jobs number unless it's not and the next one is a is a big are we never going to see any um any of the adverse effects of the uncertainty. I I thought small businesses were closing. And look, I I think there were there's a lot of scare scary stories about what tariffs would do.
And certainly if the president hadn't postponed the tariffs and basically changed his mind, I think we would have some some problems. With regards to your question on the on the dollar, the US is the largest capital market in the world. There's not nothing like it. Sure, we've got a lot of debt, but people have been buying that debt because they they do want treasuries.
So, no, I uh look, the the worst that can happen in the Treasury market, as we saw in 2023, is yields go up to levels of which people want to buy them. And they got up to 5%, people wanted to buy them, and before you know it, the the yield came right back down. I mean, you were weren't you at 7,000, Ed?
It got it got you to go to got you to go to 6,000. Um Sure. But and now now back to 6,500 whips. Well, I don't really I I don't look at it that way. I I I've written that I reserve the right to change my mind if based on the president taking him off. Yeah. Putting putting him on taking Can we say this?
You think China was much more affected than we were? Do you think that's one of the reasons that that uh that it's paused or Well, this is uh it's such a short time in which all this happened. So, I don't know that there was any immediate consequences, but uh I think there was a recognition in China that it would hurt and hurt badly and so they they they reciprocated uh in a hostile fashion to Trump's tariffs.
I I think everybody decided that this is not a good this is not a good issue to uh to to have prolonged. I think this administration wanted to get get this tariff issue behind uh them uh by by the middle of the summer and looks like they're doing it ahead of ahead of schedule. The third the 30%. Do you anticipate that staying or you you think it's your 6500 kind of has that falling to to 10% the the the basic floor that uh Treasury Secretary Besson has laid out?
Well, look, I I I think we are going to 10%. Uh I think Trump wants to declare a victory that uh tariffs are good and a 10% tariff is already generating in April it generated uh customs duties that were almost at a $200 billion annual rate. So that helps. This administration needs to find ways to generate more revenues and slow down the pace of outlays.
Everybody knows that uh the federal deficit is not on a sustainable path. So I think at the end of the day we are going to see that the minimum tariff is is 10%. In some cases that that could be eliminated if we're happy with with the deal that the other side brings us to the
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