저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 기술주 급락은 공포에 의한 것으로 보며, 시간 지평이 1주·1개월을 넘는 투자자에겐 고품질 기술주 매수 기회라는 견해. 시장 배경: 기술주 하락의 원인은 금리 압박과 디레버리징, 연준 우려, 그리고 밸류에이션 축소가 복합된 결과로 진단. 근본적 우려는 기업 펀더멘털(2023년 실적 전망)에 대한 불안. 과거 비교: 2001년 초, 2008년 가을과 비교했을 때 이번 공포감은 지난 21년간 본 것과 질적으로 다르다고 주장. 다만 바닥이라고 단정하지는 않음. 투자 전략: 패닉 속에서 고품질 기술주 매수를 권고. 마이크로소프트, 애플, 구글 등 대형주와 사이버보안 종목을 언급. 기업 지출(enterprise spend)이 핵심 관찰 포인트이며 소비자보다 기업 지출 쪽에 집중하라고 조언. 클라우드: 워크로드의 약 40%만 클라우드로 이전된 상태라 성장 여력이 남아 있다고 봄. 마이크로소프트, 구글, 아마존(AWS), IBM을 클라우드 테마 수혜주로 제시. WCLD ETF가 7개월째 하락 중이라는 진행자 언급에 동의. 고밸류 성장주: 고위험·고밸류 종목에 대한 회피 분위기 속에서도 테슬라는 향후 수년간 강하게 낙관하는 종목으로 언급. 전기차 공급망 전반(리튬 등)에 지출이 몰릴 것으로 전망. 애플, 반도체 및 AMD, 엔비디아를 고품질 기술주로 언급. 페이톤(Peloton) 회복 여부에 대해서는 명확한 답 없음. 리스크: 인력(talent) 부족과 공급망 문제가 주요 역풍으로 언급됨. 시장은 기술주 양극화 장세이며 기업 지출 관련 수혜 종목 선별이 중요하다고 강조.
다듬은 글
so we're seeing the tech wreck uh how much of it is interest rate pressure are there other factors causing big cap tech cloud names chip names to really be under pressure yeah it's been a nightmare on elm street i mean i then i think what you're seeing is the combination you know de-leveraging across the board you know worries about the fed and ultimately what you're seeing in terms of multiples across the board for tech stocks and i think i look i think the crux of this is investors are worried about what this means for fundamentals do you believe numbers for this year for 2023 i mean frank i just say i've seen this three times like early 2001 fall 2008 and today so the point i'm not calling i'm gonna say that this is a bottom but i believe the panic the fear that i'm seeing is is is really unique uh relative to what i've seen the last 21 years all right dan you're saying a lot of words here you're saying bottom panic so i have to ask you flat out is this an opportunity to buy some of these names oh i mean i i firmly believe anyone that has a time horizon you know that that's beyond a week or a month for tech when i look at names like microsoft apple some of the fan names you look where google is and other cyber security look unless you think enterprise spend is falling off a cliff no one's going to buy iphones that this is ultimately going to be you know something where you see massive consumer and enterprise spend off the clip then to me this is the time and that's what we've been advising clients i mean the point is in chaos with many yelling fire in a crowded theater you know it's very easy for panic we believe this is the time as we've navigated clients over the last few decades in tech all right dan you just mentioned enterprise you and i actually we met up earlier this week to talk about some cloud names and about cloud being under pressure the wcld etf on pace where i believe it's seventh month in the red um are there any particular names that you would point to you mentioned cyber security so we can lump that in with cloud are there any best of class names that you believe if you have a horizon as you mentioned longer than a week that you should buy right now yeah and just for context 40 of workloads there in the cloud we still have the vast majority ahead of us that's why you look at names like microsoft you play the cloud themes with names like google and amazon the aws theme and then ultimately i think can generally you also see with benefits with the names of ibm as well and i think that look that's why in these situations you look aware of the spend it's a bifurcated tech tape enterprise spend is where you want to be focused on that's ultimately what's been strong to earnings and cloud you know to me we're still in the fourth fifth inning of this all playing out all right a lot of people have been talking about uh it's risk off basically the translation is high risk names high valuation names people just aren't into them is there anywhere in those high valuation names or quote unquote high risk names that you would put your money into are you a believer in the ev story the uh you know autonomous vehicle story do you believe a stock like a peloton could come back well well first of all i think when it comes to electro because if i look at names like tasa where they trade today that continues be one that we're super bullish on over the coming years and look i just think when you ultimately really peel away the onion where is the spend going to be it's ultimately going to be on areas like evie across the supply chain there's even names like life cycle and other ways to play the ev food chain and then i think also on the consumer side you look what's happening in terms of the supply chain the ultimate the headwind becomes a talent it comes down to when you look at scenarios that's why when i look at apple i look at chips you look at what happened with amd you look at names like nvidia and that's right this is the time for the high quality tech names in a bifurcated tech tape that's what you own here where panic's in the air you
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