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well with stock sitting in negative territory for the year and only ten trading days left in 2018 it's not looking good take a look at the market Tales from the Crypt the sp500 has only been negative three out of the past 15 years but our next guest says not all hope is lost a 10 percent rally is still on the table before year end let's bring in fun strats Tom Lee Tom you're really bullish but now sitting next to Carter it's so in what form will this 10% rally look like of what sectors will take us there well it's a you know obviously we're working with a really short timeframe yes but we know that markets have been moving very quickly in the last couple of months right when five days we've lost 200 points I think to me anything that happens between now and your end is a lot more about positioning than macro developments you know like a AII sentiment Bulls - bears it's the worst since February 12 2016 like days before the market bottoms and from all of our conversations with clients our clients aren't worried about a bull rally and missing out a bull rally they're worried about how much of a drawdown they're facing so we we think most of our clients have gone neutral or even into cash I think that they've made a determination this is late cycle so I think that there's a bullish scenario hutches everyone's offsides and if there's any positive ailments Dan you mentioned a couple I think these are catalysts and ten days could you know see a significant reversal so is it going to be the tech sector is there gonna be financials I mean what sorts of what what's the quality of that 10% rally this is going to be tougher but I think the markets is graph change towards quality so it's more like Walt Disney over Netflix you know some more resis go over Fang and I think maybe that's how people want to be positioned anyways but I think that's a stuff they're willing to sort of buy up I'm curious how all your life have you been called an optimist by nature because you're sounding I mean with given this short time frame for that for your SP 500 call and you're also standing pat in terms of bitcoin saying the markets got it wrong on Bitcoin Bitcoin should actually be valued higher in the markets there's a disconnect there I mean you're you're really sticking by your guns here well you know work we're contrarian at the extremes it actually as markets make more extreme moves we tend to look more contrary I don't necessarily think 2019 is a great year for equities but do I think people should be bearish and we should be talking about you know a recession I think it's too early to make that judgment and I see positioning so that makes us bullish on on crypto again I think the story there is just about adoption in wallets and that's grown this year and to us that's determined fair value for last eight years you know ninety-three percent of the move bitcoins just been explained by active addresses and activity per user this is the only year where they've really diverged so I'm not saying the markets wrong I'm just saying the thing that has driven explained crypto for the last eight years hasn't explained the market this year okay here's another contrarian call General Electric yes so bad it's good III yes we actually just punished to be so we looked at 120 years of price history for GE it's back its ratio to the dad's back to 1920 and a lot of bad news has been priced in and I think one of the most significant develops this week is actually Steve to says upgrade not because he's moved the market but it's it's just evidence that a lot of bad news is priced in and it's like the least institutionally owned it's price to sales is now setting so 70% discount to the SP it's the least like among the industrial so to us the risk reward is there but it's an ugly chart our RTI Rob Slimer who says he doesn't see any evidence is it on the chart but hold that's all data sight at the lows you know 9 there was a large contingent of players who believed that gene was a zero right that it was upside down in terms of its leverage and that if not for the bailout it would have been a zero is it any better now I am asking cuz I don't know I don't yeah yes what is the situation so there's a lot written in fact Journal had an article today about GE you know number one the CD s is like 240 wide now when the GE was last $7 it was a thousand wide so credit saying hey I'm a little more comfortable there's a lot of estimates that some of their flagship businesses like their turbines are worth ninety billion the stocks at fifty six billions right away else and they had change that's right a new management so maybe little things have to go right and then good things happen with you I hope you're right Tom in terms of the markets I'm Happy Holidays to you tom has been really enjoying the holiday he's been in full holiday spirits of lates holiday tree yes see they're using Photoshop no that's real right Tom come on real that's real you've got some really good points it I mean excellent that's one word a fun strat I think it's excellent oh you don't Mel I see the I think the most important thing is it's not what happens between now on the end of the year it really is this set up like last year we were ripping after those tax cuts in the end of December into the new year and it kept on going and what did it do it's set up for a 12% straight line down so we escalator it up elevator down that's what makes me nervous about any shenanigans late year and it's not something that I want to kind of get really involved in one way or another you
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