저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 재정적자가 공식 수치보다 심각하며(국가부채 증가 기준 GDP 대비 약 8%) 프랑스보다 나쁘다고 주장. 고금리로 이자비용이 늘어 부채 악순환 우려, 부채/GDP 132%(2035) 가능성 제기. 트럼프 행정부의 재정 방만과 인플레 재악화(ISM 지불가격 지수 74, 2022년 7월 이후 최고)를 비판하며, 이로 인해 금·은 등 실물자산으로 자금이 이동할 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
the deficits that the the government claims it's running because they're they're all BS. I I look at the increase in the national debt because that tells you how much we really borrowed. If the debt goes up by three trillion during any given year, well then the deficits must have been three trillion because that's how the where the debt came from.
The debt isn't there unless we borrow it into existence. So if you compare how much the national debt rose over the past year with our GDP, you're looking at a real deficit of almost 8% of GDP. So we're way, way worse than France. Yet France is already starting to have the beginnings of a crisis. Goldman Sachs has warned that persistently high US interest rates could make the country's enormous debt burden significantly more difficult to manage.
If borrowing costs remain elevated, debt service expenses could continue climbing, putting additional pressure on government finances and potentially pushing the US debt to GDP ratio toward 132% by 2035. The concern is becoming harder to ignore as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has climbed sharply.
While annual US interest expense has already reached a record $125 trillion, consuming roughly 18.5% of federal government revenue. The bigger problem is the potential feedback loop created by higher interest costs. As more government revenue goes towards servicing existing debt, less remains available for infrastructure, defense, social security, and other spending priorities.
If the government then has to borrow even more to cover those costs, the debt burden can continue expanding, creating even greater interest expenses in the future. Peter Schiff has long warned that this type of debt accumulation can eventually become a much lar problem for the dollar and the broader US economy, particularly if policymakers respond to rising debt costs with measures that weaken the purchasing power of the currency.
Let's now take a closer look at Shift's analysis and what these developments could mean for gold and the the broader financial markets ahead. If you're finding this video valuable, don't forget to like, subscribe, and stay tuned for more important market insights on it. Get an idea of what's coming.
It's already starting in France. And I've been talking about the chickens coming home to roost in the bond market all over the world. Right? This is not just an American problem. You know, we don't have a monopoly on reckless politicians on on runaway debt. It's all over the world. And it's particularly a problem in France.
Uh you know, the French government spends a lot of money. They have high deficits right now. The yield on the French 10-year bond is 4 seni 5%. That's actually less than the US government is paying because US government's paying five 28. So right now France is a better credit risk than the United States.
Now maybe not for long. I mean French bond yields could be headed a lot higher. German bond yields are rising too. But the German bond the uh tenure is 3.45% and the spread is widening. In fact, it got as high as about one and a half of the French bonds over German bonds. And the spread a lot more people in the Euro zone are going to be talking about the spread.
And normally it's the difference between what you're paying if you're you're France or if you're Italy, right? or Portugal or Spain, one of these other countries and Germany because for a while, right, all of the yields were kind of the same. Uh there wasn't much of a difference because it was all the same currency, right?
So the currency is the same because they the French don't borrow in Franks anymore and the Germans don't borrow in marks. They're all euros. Uh so the currency risk is the same. It's just the potential default risk that is different. And so why is the default risk higher uh with France? Well, the debt to GDP in France is 119%.
That's almost as bad as ours, you know, where we're 123%. By comparison, Germany's debt to GDP is 64.4%. Now, that's a lot more debt than Germans had before the Euro zone was was created. Uh, but it's a lot less debt than France. And I think the spread between the two should be a lot wider. And it will be a lot wider now that creditors are starting to be more cognizant of the risks of sovereign debt.
So, you know, it's not just the American chickens, right, that are coming home to roost. It's the French ones. And and so France right now also they're running a large budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP. That's the official deficit, the actual deficit is probably about 5.4 from what I've read. Now to keeping things in perspective, the official US budget deficit relative to GDP is 5.8.
So we're worse than France as far as deficits. And if you actually get the the unofficial number, which I like to use, I I don't care about the deficits that the the government claims it's running because they're they're they're all BS. I look at the increase in the national debt because that tells you how much we really borrowed.
If the debt goes up by three trillion during any given year, well then the deficits must have been three trillion because that's how the where the debt came from. The debt isn't there unless we borrow it into existence. So if you compare how much the national debt rose over the past year with our GDP, you're looking at a real deficit of almost 8% of GDP.
So, we're way, way worse than France. Yet, France is already starting to have the beginnings of a crisis. What makes the situation more concerning is that higher rates are arriving when the US already has limited fiscal flexibility. A prolonged period of elevated Treasury yields could raise refinancing costs, pressure economic growth, and leave policymakers with increasingly difficult choices during the next downturn.
The government may eventually face greater pressure to reduce spending, raise revenue, or tolerate higher inflation as a way of managing the real burden of its obligations. Meanwhile, Peter sees that investors could begin demanding agreium to hold long-term government debt, creating another source of pressure across financial markets.
If this trend continues into the next decade, the consequences could extend far beyond government finances. A debt to GDP ratio approaching 132% combined with trillion dollar annual interest costs could fundamentally change how investors think about US assets, the dollar, and inflation. Capital could increasingly move toward assets that are less dependent on government credit, including gold, silver, energy, commodities, and other hard assets.
While higher borrowing costs could create additional pressure on stocks, real estate, and heavily indebted companies, for gold in particular, a prolonged period of fiscal deterioration and currency concerns could become a powerful catalyst, potentially setting the stage for another major repricing as investors seek protection against the long-term consequences of America's expanding debt burden.
JD economic news yesterday that should also be disturbing. The ISM certis index slipped in September. Now it didn't crash. It's still above 50. So it's not technically contraction, but it was 55. In the prior month in August, the forecast was for a dip to 55. And that's pretty much what we got when we went down to 54.9.
But what's more of an issue is the prices paid component of that report. The prices paid index rose from 72.6 to 74. 74 is the highest since July of 2022. And if you recall what was going on back then that was about 5 months after the Russia Ukraine war broke out. And that really drove oil prices and other commodity prices up.
And so this is the highest prices paid since that time. And in fact, 17 industries surveyed reported rising input prices. None of the industries reported that prices were going down. So all of them said prices were going up. And of course, Trump is still, you know, claiming some kind of victory on inflation when the inflation rates, even the way the the government measures them, are higher now than they were at this time uh in 2024, which was, you know, under Biden.
So, the inflation problem has gotten worse. The trade problem has gotten worse. And all of this is going to, you know, bold ill for the Republicans. their their chances now in the midterms continue to dwindle. And um you know a lot of people I get messages or people say that I shouldn't be so hard on Trump that you know give him a break, give the Republicans a break because you know the Democrats would have been worse.
That had Claw Harris won had the Democrats won the House and the Senate that the situation would be even worse. And that may be true that that you know that that that certainly may be true. And I'm not going to argue that it wouldn't be worse, but it's immaterial because we're going to get that anyway.
Um that is my point because the Republicans squandered an opportunity to actually do something that may have helped. Um we're going to have the Democrats in Congress anyway. Yes. We didn't have a Democratic Congress in 2025 and 2026, but we're going to have it in 2027, 2028. So, and and what did the Republicans accomplish for the two years they controlled Congress?
They just ran up the deficit. It's all they did. Uh they passed the big beautiful bill, which was a disaster. Um, so what what what do we got to show for it? The fact that maybe the Democrats would have passed an even worse budget than that one with even bigger deficits, I think is immaterial because we're going to get those deficits anyway.
Uh we're going to get the Democrats passing those even bigger budgets uh in 2027 and 2028. And Trump is not going to be in a position, I don't think, to veto them. He should. That's what I would do. I would veto everything that the Democrats pass. I mean, when Donald Trump said that if the Democrats win, we're going to have a depression the likes of which we haven't seen since 1929.
You know, obviously, he could save us from that fate if he would just use his veto pen. And in fact, I hear people telling me that, well, you know, you got to cut Trump a break because he he couldn't really make the cuts to government spending that are necessary because he couldn't get enough Republicans to go along.
And that may be true, but he at least should have tried. He at least should have tried to encourage the Republicans to cut spending. Instead, he encouraged them to do the opposite. He embraced that big beautiful bill. In fact, the whole thing was his idea, right? To have everything in one big beautiful bill.
The next phase could not become far more important for investors as the US enters a period where rising debt, elevated interest rates, and increasing refinancing costs begin colliding at the same time. If Treasury yields remain high, the government could face an increasingly expensive debt burden while businesses and consumers also feel the impact through higher borrowing costs that could eventually slow economic growth and increase volatility across stocks, bonds, and real estate.
At the same time, policymakers could come under greater pressure to contain the interest burden through spending cuts, higher taxes, financial measures, or looser monetary policy. If monetary intervention becomes necessary, concerns over inflation and the purchasing power of the dollar could intensify.
In that environment, investors may increasingly move toward gold and silver, energy, commodities, and other real assets. While gold could emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries of a prolonged loss of confidence in fiscal stability, the real shock could come if markets begin. Pricing in a future where debt is no longer simply a problem to be managed, but a force that starts reshaping
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