저자: DannySully · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오(주식30%·장기채40%·중기채15%·금7.5%·상품7.5%)를 소개하고 장단점을 분석. 자산간 낮은 상관관계로 변동성을 줄이는 것이 장점이며, 최근 10년 연환산수익률은 약 7%로 S&P500(약 15%)에 크게 못 미쳤다. 젊은 투자자에게는 주식 비중이 너무 낮고, 채권 이자는 세금상 불리해 IRA 같은 세제혜택 계좌 활용을 권장. 결론적으로 목표·위험허용도에 따라 판단하라는 중립적 입장.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio has gained massive attention for its strategy from combining uncorrelated assets to weather through any type of market downturn. But before we get started, my name is Danny Sully, and all I ask is if you do find value in this video, that you consider hitting the like, subscribe, and notifications button for future content like this.
With that said, let's first cover what is the All-Weather Portfolio. All in all, Dalio and his team found that the economy moves in two main dimensions, and so they put them into four different economic conditions, growth where assets can rise or fall, and then inflation that can also rise or fall. And so to fulfill the quadrants, they came to find that when inflation, prices for goods and services are rising, commodities and gold tend to do well, and when prices fall, bonds tend to be strong options.
And then during periods of rising growth in an economy, stocks tend to do well, where when there is falling growth, bonds tend to do well. Think of the periods of each block being inflation, deflation, bull markets, and bear markets, and when each asset class typically does well. And so because Ray Dalio has gone through many risky times in the market, he highly emphasizes diversification, and has famously said, "Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well." And in search of the ultimate portfolio to go through ups and downs, he came to find that adding more uncorrelated assets to your portfolio increases your return to risk ratio, which means you can expect similar returns, but with lower risk.
And so in order to achieve this goal and still keep a very simple portfolio that nearly anyone watching this could use, the All-Weather Portfolio includes 30% into US stocks, 40% into US long-term bonds, 15% in US intermediate term bonds, 7 and 1/2% gold, and 7 and 1/2% in two commodities. So, knowing this setup, let's now go over the top ETFs that could be used for this portfolio.
Looking first at the 30% in the US stock market exposure, the top ETF here came out to be the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, VTI. Now, a few data points to mention here is that VTI is actually the fourth largest ETF in the market by having roughly $586 billion in assets under its management. The fund launched in 2001, it has a super low cost of a 0.03% expense ratio, which means for every $10,000 that you invest, you would be paying $3 per year in fees.
The fund also has just over 3,500 companies that are all based from the US and range from small, mid, to large cap stocks, where a few of the top companies in the fund are ones you've likely heard of such as Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft that each make up about 5 to 7% of the weight toward the fund. Aside from that, the ETF has paid out a dividend yield of 1.11% over the past 12 months, distributed on a quarterly basis, where the US economy has done very well recently, and you can see that VTI over the past 10 years has averaged 15.11% per year.
And that is all while having an 88% overlap by weight with the S&P 500 and a direct correlation of one with the S&P 500. From there, the next asset class is going toward US long-term bonds, where we have the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF with a ticker of VGLT, and that fund has 40% of the weight toward this portfolio.
And I have to mention, I will cover my personal take on this shortly, but just realize that VGLT has $11 billion in assets under its management, launched in 2009, has a 0.03% expense ratio, 96 holdings, a high dividend yield that paid 4.35% over the past 12 months on a monthly basis, but over the past 10 years, the fund has actually declined on average by being negative point five six percent.
And don't forget that the annual returns that you see for all these ETFs, they include the expense ratio factored into it, and they assume that you reinvest the dividends. So, if you're to take the dividends out as an income, you'd really be in the red. But the intention behind this is to have stability for different economic conditions.
But besides that, just realize that there is a zero percent overlap by weight with the S&P 500. And more so, to even highlight the point is a correlation of negative point zero three with the S&P 500, which is the goal of Dalio's purpose with this All Weather Portfolio. After that, the next asset class is the US Intermediate Term Bonds with the Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond ETF that is BIV, by having 15% of the entire portfolio.
And so, this fund currently has 29 billion dollars in assets under its management, a point zero three percent expense ratio, over 2,000 different bonds, a dividend yield of just about four percent over the past 12 months, paid out on a monthly basis, where the fund has averaged 2.29% per year over the past 10 years, while having a zero percent overlap with the S&P 500, and a point two six correlation as well.
But from there, we then have the exposure to gold through the SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD. Or for the long-term buy and hold investors, you may be interested in GLDM, that has a lower expense ratio of point one percent. But as far as GLD, this is a very popular fund by having 185 billion dollars in assets under its management.
Launched in 2004, it does not pay a dividend. And over the past 10 years, the fund has averaged just about 15% per year, while having no overlap with the S&P 500, and a correlation of point one. And then the last asset to mention here is for commodities, that is through the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, that is DBC, that has seven and a half percent of the weight toward the fund.
It currently has 1.5 billion dollars in assets under its management, a higher expense ratio of 0.82% 33 holdings, a dividend yield of 2.88% that was paid on an annual basis while averaging an 8 and 1/2% annual return over the past 10 years, a 0% overlap with the S&P 500, and a 0.44 correlation with the S&P 500.
All in all, these ETFs make up what Ray Dalio intended to be an all-weather portfolio, but before we discuss if this is right for you, let's go over the pros and cons to using it. All right, so starting off with the pros to this portfolio, the first is that it is great for true diversification. You see, the assets in the portfolio, they have low correlation with each other.
So, when you invest in the stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities, the intention is that they all react differently to different economic conditions fulfilling Dalio's goal of maximizing potential returns while accounting for the least amount of risk associated to actually losing money. Because of this, the portfolio offers lower volatility than if you solely just chose to invest 100% in the S&P 500 because with this current portfolio, you would only have 30% in equities.
To me personally, that is very low depending on your situation, but that would make the downside risk significantly less extreme. And if we just look at the portfolio's performance over the last 10 years, you can see that the standard deviation computed to be 8.7% when compared to the S&P 500, that was about 15 and 1/2%.
And yet alone, this portfolio by having only five ETFs, it's super easy to do on your own, but if you are going to go this route, I would consider your own risk tolerance based on what you choose because for those that are young, only 30% in the US equities is very low. Because of that, let's now go over the cons to using this portfolio with the first being that the long-term upside is definitely limited.
Regardless of what studies out there are showing that this portfolio has outperformed over X amount of years, including market downturns and other economic conditions, there definitely has been periods where this portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, but I have to mention this image that I love referring to is that it shows nearly a century of data from rolling returns when investing into the S&P 500.
And if you solely look at 10-year rolling periods, only a very few times the S&P 500 had a lost decade. And if you extend that to 20 and even 30-year periods, from nearly every example, investors would have generated very strong returns over time on average. But just know that long-term bonds, they're not meant to outperform something like the S&P 500 over the long term.
And especially if you believe a bull market is coming or that the US economy is going to continue growing strong over years and years of investing, having more equities in that than having bonds would likely make sense if you can handle a short-term market crash or whatever type of bear market that you would have to go through.
As long as you don't sell at the bottom, that would be the worst time to do. Which I have to mention after computing this portfolio over the past 10 years, the annualized returns for the Ray Dalio portfolio came out to be 7% where the S&P 500 was over double that at nearly 15% on average. Now, yes, we've had a strong bull market recently, but the thing I don't like is that when you look at the worst year and maximum drawdown for both portfolios, they were pretty much the same.
But remember, this is only over the past 10 years where we've had a strong bull market. Over a longer duration, things could very well be different especially with a bear market if that were to be factored into play. And then the last thing to be aware of here is that this portfolio is not very tax efficient, but the tax efficiency is largely because the income that you generate from bonds, it's going to be considered as interest income that is added to your ordinary income tax, which is less favorable than qualified dividends that are taxed potentially as long-term capital gains depending on how long you've held that investment.
As you can see in this design that we created an Investopedia on tax efficient investments, you can see high yield taxable bonds and bond funds are one of the least tax efficient investments that are ideal to avoid in taxable accounts. Where growth oriented stocks or index funds, specifically US based companies, they are among the best options you could choose from, especially for long-term investing where the impact from tax rate can easily cost you greatly down the road.
But knowing all this about the all weather portfolio, should you actually use it? Now, there are many ways that you can view this approach and just please realize that this is not financial advice. You must make your own investment decisions. But the first thing to realize here is that the all weather portfolio is more so designed for stability and not the maximum growth potential.
If you can invest in the S&P 500 for at least a solid 15 to 20 years without even thinking to touch your funds, you would very likely outperform a portfolio like this where the majority is weighted towards bonds. Because of that, if you are on the younger end, I personally recommend to not even think about using this portfolio or at the least significantly increasing the US equity exposure and lowering the amount of bonds.
So, regardless of economic conditions, this portfolio is meant to help hedge against inflation, deflation, bull markets, and bear markets with the potential that you're always going to have a consistently strong portfolio outcome. Due to the tax efficiency as well with this portfolio, I would ideally recommend this to be used in some sort of IRA or other tax advantage accounts instead and even later on in life.
In the end, the choice really comes down to your own goals, risk tolerance, and how long you can wait before even touching the funds. But the biggest thing from this entire video to take away is the understanding on why this portfolio was created and the intention behind uncorrelated assets. If you value protection against economic surprises, this portfolio could be a great baseline to understand the principles and then go from there based on allocating to your own situation.
Now, if you want to see more data on some of our top index funds that we've reviewed, I'll have our entire free index fund cheat sheet linked in the description below for you. Which, while you're at it, don't forget to sign up for our free newsletters. And if you want to start investing or even earn more on your savings that are sitting, we've reviewed some of the top brokerage accounts and savings accounts that are currently available in the market, and I'm going to have direct links in the description below for you.
At the end of the day, our mission at Invest Lane is to help you save and invest wisely to build lasting wealth. So, please do whatever you believe is best for your situation. This is not financial advice, and you must do your own research. Which, if you found value in this video, don't forget to hit the like, subscribe, and notifications button for future content like this.
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