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the space. Dan Ies, the firm's global head of technology research is behind the call. His research is behind the Dan Ies Bush AI Revolution ETF which was launched last month. Dan, it's so great to have you here, especially ahead of earning season. What do you expect from these big names and I know there's one name you think everybody should be in.
You can get in now. You're not too late. Yeah, I mean Corner, I think this is going to be a very bullish tech earnings year. I think that the main thing is that we're seeing the use cases when it comes to AI exploding and that's bullish for software and the hyperscalers led by of course Redmond and Nadella in terms of everything that Microsoft I think that's one not just $4 trillion we think that could be a $5 trillion market cap along with Nvidia in the next 18 months but it's this is going to be I think really a prove it time for tech I think they're not going to disappoint and I think second half tech stocks are up another 12 to 15% Hey Dan, you know the the main names that you always cover that you've been bullish and you've been right on are really interesting.
What's more interesting to me is the software coverage that you have. Tell me a little bit about the catch up if you think we're going to see some of these names catch up to the leaders that we've seen in the software space. Yeah, Grao, great question. To me that really is going to be a huge narrative in terms on the software trade and earning season because software is underperformed.
I mean if you think about but now it's not just Palunteer which obviously is our top one in terms of AI revolution MongoDB snowflake you know I think IBM seeing a massive renaissance of growth when it comes to what we're seeing on AI modernization the use cases are exploding and that's where I think software and even cyber security is going to be what I believe could be a significant outperformer across all of tech second half of the year
so Dan I think Microsoft made an all-time high today 3.8 8 trillionish. So another 1.2 to go. They're going to do about 300 what 330$340 billion dollars in revenue next year. What is that revenue number need to be to justify a $5 trillion company? Yeah, it's a great question guy. I to me it's really about Azure revenue that that's accelerating.
I think we can now see acceleration 2 three 400 bips over the next call it 6 to 12 months. But I think the the main thing is as when you think about AI and the stock as a percent of overall revenue, it's small today, but I think as we go into next year, that could be 15 20%. You think about the math on that, I think streets underestimating numbers here by potentially 10 15%.
That's why in my opinion, you know, 4 trillion is just the stock. I believe this is one, you know, 600's our base case price target. Bull case could be $700 to get out the popcorn moment. And I think as we go into earning season for Nadella and Redmond, Danis, Tim, people were throwing popcorn on the floor today at ASML.
H how do you explain the guide there? And again, they they would be more emblematic of the infrastructure around tech and obviously the picks and shovels and and it, you know, it was an awful guide. Yeah, it it was. And look and obviously D I think this is going to be a little uneven as this all plays out but I I like when I look at ASML like that's when I I'd actually be a buyer on on this type of you know sort of reaction.
I think overall semis in terms of everything that we see over the next call it 3 6 months is going to have a massive move higher because right now demand and supply is still 10 to one when it comes to AI and it comes to chips from Nvidia. That's all from our tracks in Taiwan and that's why we believe any of these selloffs that they should be bought.
Dan, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. Um, so you've said we're in the second inning of uh this AI revolution. We know that stocks peak before the end of the re revolution. What inning do you think stocks peak in? Yeah, look, I think stocks could peak, you know, maybe in sixth, seventh inning, but that means that we're going to basically have this run through, I think not just the end of this year, but through most part of next year because you're still seeing so many enterprises, only 4% enterprises have spent on AI in the US.
So, I think this is a capex explosion. It's a fourth industrial revolution. We've talked about it, the AI party. It was 900 pm. It's now 1000 pm and it goes to 4 a.m. And that's why I believe you buy these stocks. I think 2Q is going to be I think the start of what I is ultimately a golden age for tech stocks.
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