저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 파월 연준의장 해임 시도 루머에 장기금리(30년물 4.97→5.07%)가 상승하고 증시가 하락했다가, 트럼프가 부인하자 반등했다. 시장은 연준 독립성 훼손을 우려하는 것으로 보인다. 파월은 관세 인플레이션 효과를 확인하려고 금리인하를 보류 중이며, 고용률 4.1%로 경기침체 우려는 크지 않다. 트럼프의 해임 시도는 시장과 자신에게 모두 손해라고 주장한다. 마이크론은 실적 호조 후 차트상 조정 중이며 저평가로 보지만 차트를 따르겠다고 한다. 엔비디아는 선호한다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
[. I'll be each it. Call me 1800743 CBC. Tweet me Chim Kramer. Maybe you hate Jal. Maybe you love him. Maybe you have no idea who he is. Regardless, what you need to know is that he's in charge of the Federal Reserve. So he controls what's known as short rates. That means the short-term interest rates there are are like the ones you borrow today and pay you back the bar.
The president appoints the head of the Federal Reserve and in this case it was President Trump who hired Pal during his first term. Trump now thinks pal's doing a terrible job because he won't cut interest rates. So the president takes jabs at him every chance he get. Unfortunately, this presidential obsession has a lot of impact on the markets.
Today, for example, we got hit on rumors that Trump will fire Pal and then the market came back when the president said it's not true. Dow only gaining 231 points, S&P be advancing.32%. NASDAQ climbing 025%. Now, I thought the sell off on the rumor and the sharp rally on the news of the president letting Pal alone was dispositive.
And I am going to tell you why. The president wants Pal out. But when we got a whiff of the rumor that he'd take action, longerterm interest rates went up with the sacred 30-year Treasury going from 4.97% to 5.07. Now, that was done in an hour. I know it's small, but you know the direction directions for interest rates to go higher.
bad. At the same time, the S&P 500 went from 6,254 to 6,201 on the rumor, but then rallied back to 6263 after the denial. Good. So, clearly the stock and bond markets don't want Pal getting ousted. Isn't that That's night and day right there. Boom. Now, is Pal the issue here or is it that the Wall Street's terrified of the idea that the president might be able to fire the Fed chief, something he's not supposed to be able to do?
legally he doesn't have the authority, but the Republicans control all three branches of government right now and Trump's their guy. Of course, there are still institutions that are concerned about Federal Reserve independence, but they're financial institutions, not the political ones. The financial institutions don't have as many divisions as the political ones, and they never will.
What is rarely talked about is why Pal even bothers to stay. What's the point of taking this? Now, as someone who's had his share of national ridicule, it's not something you look forward to. But when you look at the action in the stock and bond markets today, how we went down when the rumor was first floated and went up when the president walked it back, it's worth asking why stocks didn't soar when we thought pal was getting fired.
Sore. Stocks supposed to benefit from lower interest rates, right? You cut rates, you get better uh form business formation, you get stronger employment, housing market gets stimulated by teaser rates. So why didn't stocks blast off when we heard pal who is standing in the way of all that was s was sacked?
Why didn't it why didn't the market go up? Legit question, one that I think the president has to be pondering. But there in lies the problem. The market at least today is saying that Trump might be very wrong about firing Pal. What's the case for firing this man? We spoke to presidential adviser Peter Navaro last week and he thinks a good reason to fire him is that he's got a terrible track record according to Navaro.
2018 Pal took rates up in the face of incipient weakness. 2021 he didn't take rates up because he thought that inflation was transitory. I'll admit the Pal's not perfect. Nobody bats thousand. But we have to ask, should we judge him harshly for holding rates steady right now? Or to put it another way, why hasn't pal started cutting rates again?
We had a cooler than expected PPI number today. That could make it easy to justify a rate cut, right? But how about inflation? The incredibly important consumer price index from yesterday had some prices that had some signs of inflation from the president's tariffs. Higher prices for clothing, furniture, cleaning products, food away from home, meats, poultry, coffee, gasoline, even soft drinks.
That's a long list. Now, is the tracing right? Appliances and canned fruits and vegetables went up because of tariffs for certain. We know from Kagra that the price of tin cans went higher. Tariffs on aluminum make cans, including soda cans, more expensive. Korean and Chinese appliances went up in price because of that steel tariff.
That helps give Warpool an edge, but it hurts you because you have to pay more. Coffee important. So the fall of the tariffs, meat and poultry, that's more problems with due to the herds and flocks. Furniture, the move out of China raised prices. Same thing with clothing. Tariffs are the issue. Against all this though, if you know where to shop, not something that they put in these numbers.
Amazon, Walmart, TJX, Costco. The prices are tame. Come on. Score one for the president. However, we don't know how high the tariffs are going to go. And he seems to roll out new ones every day. We don't know if there's going to be doublings or even triplings on some countries. We haven't seen the car and truck tariffs that we all fear.
We haven't seen how much the imported parts of a house drove up the price of homes. We're nowhere near finishing tariffing. And that's what Pal wants to wait for. That's what that's why he's on hold. He's prudent. Score one for Pal. So, what's the case against Pal's patience? If you believe the economy is about to fall apart, then there's no time to wait.
But we just heard from the big banks over the last two days, and not one of them said the consumer's hurt. A lot of that's because it's still incredibly easy to find a job. Sure, there are lots of layoffs at the banks themselves, but there aren't a lot of white collared workers without jobs. I find it very hard to worry about a downturn when employment's at 4.1%.
That's the problem with President Trump's position. The Fed's supposed to cut in a slowdown, but we don't have a slowdown. And the only thing that might cause one is the president's tariff policy. It's paradoxical Mexican standoff. If Pal doesn't wait, if he cuts, front running the August set of tariffs, he'd be caving.
And if he's wrong, he'll look like a fool. He has absolutely no reason to cut other than to stop the heckling. What's in it for President Trump if he tries to fire Pal? I think we saw it today. Nothing. The stock market would get rocked. Long and interest rates would rise. What president would want that to happen?
If I were President Trump, I'd wait to see what happens with his tariffs. As long as inflation's stable two and a half months from now, then by all means, bash Pal for refusing to cut rates. But today should have been a real wakeup call. For who? For the president. He does himself no favors if he fires Pal.
Even if you thought pal is a doofus, which you most decidedly is not, you still would still be fighting all the usual enemies who cherish the Fed's independence. I'm one of them. It's been good for it's good good policy for our great nation. It's worked. Ain't broke, don't fix. So, uh, Mr. President, write down this one.
May 15, 2026. That's when Jay's done. His loyalty is clear. It's to the country. You can't beat that. Plus, this whole rap about how pal may have spent too much money on the Federal Reserve renovation. What is he like that guy? He's like a It's not his house. Uh Trump's credibility is hurt by this. Does Pal look like a guy who cares about this stuff?
Does he does he look like a contractor? Honestly, the guy's so intense about his job that if you told me he didn't even choose the color of paint his own office, I believe you. Bottom line, I hope today is the last day that Trump goes after Jay Pal whose term ends in 10 months anyway. Guy for Pal only hurt Trump the same way it hurts the markets.
And I don't think the president's a massochist. At the end of the day, we're either going to see more inflation or not. If inflation really does pick up, firing pal won't matter because the rest of the Federal Market Committee won't let him cut either. Mr. President, sometimes this is genius by me. It's better to leave well enough alone.
Hey, let's go to Tom in Illinois, please. Tom, hey Jim, thanks for taking my call. Oh, my pleasure. What's up? I wonder what you think about Sony. I know the government's coming after Japan with tariffs. How do you think that'll affect the stock? I don't want to be there. I don't be there because I think Japan's going to get the brunt.
Too many soldiers there. We've done too much for them. Uh I think that Japan and Korea the next wave is what I think that that J pal's worried about too. The next wave is going to be really it's just going to be uh the house of Let's go to Rick in Illinois, please. Rick Jimmy, how are you today? I'm having a pretty good day.
How about you? It was okay except for this uh Powell announcements during the day. A little bit upsetting, but we move on. Jim, I've been an accolade of yours since since Kramer and Cuddlo. No, that's not possible because it was Cuddlo and Kramer. I lost a coin flip. I wanted Kramer and Cuddlo. I mean, let's just tell the truth.
After 25 years, it's time to tell the truth. I wanted Kramer and Cuddlo. So did my dad. All right. What else? What else? Yeah. And you do. And now I'm a member of the club. And my question to you is what's with Micron? They reported earnings. They were outstanding. Made a new high at 137. And now it's like they're going out of business.
I got to tell you, I look at it every day. Do you know I said how what's with Micron three times today. I think that run from uh from 70 to 130 really got people spooked. I don't know. Now everyone's talking about how the charts bad. I'm with you. I think the stock is inexpensive. But you know what?
The chart is saying we got to wait. I'm gonna obey the chart. I just am. I'm gonna obey the chart. And anyway, I like Nvidia. Let's go to Anthony in Florida. Anthony, hey Jim, I just want to tell you I'm a member since day one and I love the 1020s. I do not miss him with you and Jeff. They're really great.
Jeff works so hard. Jeff, he when he goes out to lunch, he goes out for like 30 seconds. It's incredible. The guy is so intense. I love it. I sit right next to him and he is so dedicated to the club. It is fantastic. He's dedicated to you. How can I help? Oh, I appreciate it. Um, I'm, you know, 60 years old and, uh, and I still got some time to stay in the market and I want to get some dividends and, um, Verizon is my company that I have.
What do you think about Verizon with a 7% dividend? I think it's okay. It's really just a bond. I mean, there's a lot of competition now in the telco business. You know, I wrote this book. I wrote this book, How to Make Money in Any Market. And I had to default to a lot of the real estate investment trusts and to a lot of the ma the mass limited partnerships in the oil market.
Those are the only place where I see really great value in dividends right now because the stock market has run so much. It's a quandry, but those are the way to be able to answer the quandry. All right. Look, I'm hoping President Trump cools it with the too late pal rhetoric. I I find it seems too insulting for me at this point.
I think he's only hurting himself and of course the markets, too. on man money tonight with earning season kicking off as always with the financials. I'm thinking through the top and bottom lines of all the reports and giving you my take on the big bags. Then lots of surprising socks have been rallying lately, but I found one that I think takes the cake.
I'll reveal what it is and whether you should take a take a cut of the cheese. And we have the big bags reporting strong numbers, but what about the regionals? I'm getting the latest with the top rider. . cnbc.com.
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