저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
관세에도 불구하고 인플레이션은 아직 실질적으로 상승하지 않았으나 관세 수준과 재고 소진 후 가격전가 여부는 미정이라 아직 안심할 수 없다고 봄. 연준은 노동시장 약화 확인과 정치적 압력 때문에 망설이고 있으며 이번 달 금찬은 해야 하지만 실제로는 안 할 것으로 예상. 생산성 향상 잠재력(AI·생명과학·로보틱스)은 그 어느 때보다 기대되며 경제 성장 속도 상한을 높일 수 있음. 장기금리는 재정 주도로 상승 압력이 있고 10년물 4.5~5%, 30년물 5% 이상이 합리적이라고 봄. 일본 장기금리 급등은 일본 기관의 해외채권 매각을 유발할 수 있어 민감하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Alian's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Alan, joins us now. I mean, there's more evidence, Muhammad, that it's not that the tariffs are not leading to inflation. We had a we had a pretty robust debate about whether that would happen. What What do you think is going on beneath the surface here? So, I think the best way to characterize it is the discussion you and Carl had at top of the hour.
We somewhere in the third or beginning of the fourth quarter of this game. So far, inflation hasn't picked up because of tariffs in any material way. That's the good news, but we can't declare the game over yet. And that's why there's hesitation to say the all clear on inflation is we don't know yet where tariffs are going to settle.
And we don't know yet what happens when inventories are totally run down and companies have to make really difficult decisions about price pass through or margin compression. Right? We don't know yet. But what we do know is that for the last few months it it hasn't really materialized in a way that the Fed was worried that it would.
So what are they waiting for? So what they are waiting for um are two things. One is they want clearer evidence of weakening in the labor market and the second thing is I think they are hesitant to move given the amount of political pressure. I think they should be cutting this month but I don't expect them to cut this month
cutting with unemployment at 41. Muhammad. Yes. Because what you're seeing is we have stabilized in terms of inflation and we can live with a stable inflation rate of 2 and a half to 3% and that's where the various components call are going to settle. We have growth at around 1.5%. And we have significant fiscal um stimulus in the pipeline.
So we have a good demanddriven economy right now. The key issue is to focus on the supply side is to make sure that we get the productivity enhancements that we need so that the supply side catches up with the demand side. Do you think that I mean productivity is always it's just a hard one to wrestle.
Do you think we're going to start seeing numbers that really do uh create a more robust thesis on on where it's headed? I do. I've never been as excited on productivity growth as I am now. Really? um we seeing individual components coming together in AI, in life sciences, in robotics. Um it's a matter of a few years until they combine to have an even bigger productivity effect.
So we certainly have that potential of a significant productivity increase and it's something that we haven't had for quite a while. It doesn't mean it's automatic because there's a few other things that need to happen. But the potential call is as bright as I can remember it. So what are the implications of that?
So the implication of that is the speed limit for the economy is going to go up. Um and as long as we don't disrupt it and I the threats are are three. One is the bond market whether the bond market can digest the amount of issuance that's in the pipeline. two is where the tariff issue ends up. What does the tariff regime ultimately look like and how much retaliation have we gotten if any?
And third is Fed policy. Um you don't want the Fed to be too tight for too long because that would be an issue for the economy. So the tenure with all of that now is at 443. We basically been in this range. It hasn't done a whole lot. Do you think the next big move is higher or lower? I suspect the next big move will be higher rather than lower.
I think right now we're benefiting from significant technicals from flows going in trying to lock in income. Um but if you look at the underlying conditions, a 10year would be more between 4 and a half and five and a 30 year would be above 5%. Even if the Fed's cutting, even with the Fed cutting, this curve is going to steepen um because of the fiscally driven side of the of the economy,
right? So when people talk about pain thresholds in Japan at 32 on the long on the long uh JGB or or or five and change here is what if we cross it, do do we are we waiting for a result? So we're very different. Japan. The problem with Japan is that the move is such as it could push certain Japanese in institutional investors that are having a lot of marktomarket losses right now to dispose of other assets.
That's why we care about Japan is we do not want to see them disposing of foreign holdings of bonds. And there's some evidence that this has already happened. Um so we don't want this accelerated. The US doesn't have that problem. So the Japan issue is much more sensitive call than the US is. I mean I mentioned at the top the 26.6 billion that is coming into US government coffers as a result of tariffs as the as a big surprise that that's happening while we're not seeing inflation.
Is it possible that that could continue to a point where it could actually lower interest rates because it's bond it's bond bullish that we are bringing in so much money. It helps offset the debt problem at a time that it's not sparking inflation. I mean, that would be the best case scenario, wouldn't it?
It it would be, but it's there's no free lunch. So, the reason why you you have seen both limited inflation pass through and revenue collection is that many companies either are not confident or do not want to test the elasticity of that demand. They don't know how much pricing power they have right now.
So you don't want to increase prices if you don't know where the tariffs are going to end up. So the first round if you like is you take it on your margins and you hope you have enough inventory to minimize that impact. But at a certain point if tariffs settle where they are or higher, you're going to have to make a decision as to whether you want to test your pricing power or not.
And that's why quite a few economists are saying we still in the third or early fourth quarter. We need to see what how it's going to work out. Yeah, the the decisions get tougher as you say on on margins and pricing as we work our way toward the end of the year. Pretty interesting times, Muhammad. Uh and 50 days till football season. Come back soon.
Comments 0