Don't expect Fed Chair Powell to adjust the inflation target, says Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 파월 연준의장은 인플레이션 목표치를 크게 손대지 않을 가능성이 높으며, 중국은 구조적 부채·성장 문제로 대규모 경기부양이 어렵고, 미국은 공급측 투자 중심 성장 전략으로 차별화된다. [연준·물가목표] 파월 의장은 단기 통화정책 이야기를 할 가능성이 크지만 민감한 국면이라 신중할 것이다. 인플레이션 목표를 2%보다 높이자는 이론적 논거는 있으나, 계속 목표를 못 맞춰온 중앙은행이 목표를 바꾸기는 매우 어려워 파월이 이를 의미 있게 건드리지는 않을 것으로 봤다. [중국] 중국은 성장 문제와 부채 문제를 동시에 안고 있어 과거식 대규모 부양책을 쓰기 어렵다. 시장은 더 많은 부양을 기대했으나 실제로는 내놓지 않았다. 청년 실업률이 20%를 넘는 등 성장을 걱정하고 있지만, 필요한 것은 성장 모델의 근본적 개편이며 이는 단기간에 오지 않는다. [미국·시사점] 미국은 녹색 전환, 글로벌 공급망 재편, 타이트한 노동시장에 대응하기 위해 공급측 투자와 에너지 체계 개편에 중점을 두고 있다. 미국의 예외성은 경제성과뿐 아니라 미래 성장 잠재력을 위한 접근 방식에 있으며, 다른 나라들은 이를 부러워하고 있다는 취지다. [출연자 전망] 이 영상에서 대상 자산들(주식·금리·환율 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시적으로 나오지 않았다.

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01. here to discuss is alian's chief economic advisor Mohamed el-arigan Muhammad what a treat to have you back good morning good morning Carl all right so you laid out some possibilities talk to me about what's likely so what's likely is that he's probably going to talk about short-term monetary policy issues I don't think that's the best thing to do because it is a very delicate situation right now the good news for Jeff Powell is that this is a target Rich environment whether he chooses to focus on the immediate whether he chooses to focus on the longer term or whether he decides to punt as others have done in the past and look at a very narrow economic issue with no policy implication he has a lot to talk about Carl and that just shows you how fluid the current situation is Right speaking of Target Rich um you you probably don't Envision any attempt to make adjustments to the inflation Target or do you I'm just thinking in light of uh next piece in the journal over the weekend about our star what there's more and more people saying look if we were to decide on inflation Target today it would not be two percent it would be slightly above that and I think that's a very strong argument for that having said that it is very hard for Central Bank to change its inflation Target when it has been missing it so consistently so yes there's a theoretical argument for a higher inflation Target but don't look for chair pal to touch that issue in any significant way interesting Muhammad I wanted to uh turn your attention to China I know you you were tweeting overnight that uh the news and just the overall sentiment in the region is a reminder that old-fashioned I'm quoting you here old-fashioned stimulus measures are not as obvious or as easy of a go-to for the government as they used to be at this point in time do you see any additional stimulus from the region as they try to to at least improve GDP in the region to kind of what the market expectations are look like they have two issues they have a growth problem and they have a debt problem and because they have that second issue don't look to them to do major stimulus you know the market was hoping for more but they didn't deliver more it's not because they're not worried about economic growth they're very worried about economic growth they're very worried about youth unemployment over 20 percent the reality is that they cannot use the old-fashioned stimulus measures what they need is a fundamental revamp of their growth model and that's not coming anytime soon are there any takeaways you think for other nations who have employed kind of infrastructure spending in the way that they have obviously here in the U.S we have been embarking on on a lot of spending a lot of fiscal spending um you know in certain pockets of the economy do you think it's there are lessons to be learned here or just a different situation altogether now there are lessons this is a important time to redirect economic growth look what's happening around us we have a green transition that we have to take seriously we have fragmenting globalization Supply chains are changing and certain countries like ours have tight labor markets and when you look at that you need a major emphasis on the supply side and Carl was asking earlier about U.S exceptionalism U.S exceptionalism is not just in economic performance which is significantly better than most other countries but also in the approach taken to Future economic growth potential there's been a major emphasis on revamping the energy equation to make it Greener to make investment in growth areas and I think other countries are looking at that and they're jealous of us because they don't have the ability to do what we've been able to do