Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel on what's driving the market rally

요약 보기

관세 우려에도 증시가 신고가를 기록하는 이유를 설명. 엔비디아 뉴스와 AI 혁신, 트럼프 규제완화·세금 감면이 관세 부담을 상쇄한다고 봄. 다만 전면 30% 관세는 큰 피해라고 경고. 금리 인하는 필요하지만 연준 독립성이 중요하며, 파월 교체 시도에 대해서도 위원들이 반대 투표할 것이라고 주장.

다듬은 글

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01. number of key economic uh data releases coming this week. Today we get to CPI at 8:30 Eastern. Joining us now on the markets, Jeremy Seagull, professor am chief economist uh at Wisdom Tree. Wisdom. You got a lot of wisdom. Um we both remember the Dow under a thousand, I think. Jeremy. Yeah. You have you've always you've always been genetically predisposed to to liking the market.

02. You've also been genetically predisposed to not liking tariffs and and I think I think that's gotten you to where this has been very surprising for you that we're breaking out uh to new highs. Is it because of all the the taco the the rest bits that the tariffs hasn't gone in? Has it been that maybe tariffs done I in a certain way can actually be a good thing or does it mean we're going to see today uh or at some point in the future the tariffs are hurting the economy?

03. Which is it? Well, the main thing is that we we're we're not seeing the so-called reciprocal tariffs that we saw early in April. I mean, I think those would have been extremely damaging. Uh I also think that that at least the market doesn't think that the 30% tariffs are coming into place. I mean I think this Nvidia news today is is showing uh Trump's flexibility here.

04. uh uh you know quite surprising and I think that everyone that is coming to the table uh is basically going to get an extension and I think that the market has decided it can live with a kind of a 10 12% maybe and then 30% on China. I think that gives a a mix of 15% tariffs. Uh and they think they can get around it.

05. uh they think that, you know, the positives of the AI revolution uh and the positives of Trump deregulation, the extension of the tax cuts offset that. Now, I don't think they could offset the third a 30% across the board tariff. Uh I think that that's quite damaging and of course the drama that's going on at at the Fed is unprecedented.

06. Let you know to see how that is is going to play out. But uh you know as as I said before uh necessity is the mother of invention. Firms are going to face higher prices and they're going to say I'm going to have to figure out how to get around it. And uh you know AI is one of the answers and I think that's why AI is still on the march.

07. And um uh that trend is certainly intact. Clearly the the news with Nvidia, you know, is as you said spurring the NASDAQ to new all-time highs. Right. Anybody at Penn um obviously loves Benjamin Franklin and you just went over about I don't know I try to add up the goods and the bads that you just said and I I think the goods outweigh the bad but you've got a list you got a laundry list of things on both sides uh of the ledger which which makes it uh makes it very interesting.

08. So you like certain things about the what are we calling it the OBB the the bill that just you like the extension of tax cuts. probably love that expensing deal, the 100% expense. Eh, um, did it Would you have liked to see more cuts? It's hard to cut, isn't it? It's almost impossible. Yeah. I mean, you you know, the truth is uh you know, I'm not really surprised.

09. I mean, it's pretty much what Trump uh uh campaigned on. Um, listen, no, look at even Biden when he had the House, the Senate, and the presidency didn't reverse Trump's tax cut. So, everyone, you know, said, "Oh, there's a $3 trillion more 10-year deficit." Well, that's just from not uh going back to the Obama levels, which is even the Democrats couldn't do that.

10. So, in a way, I think, you know, I'm not surprised that the market the bond market is pretty quiet on this because it's saying, "Yeah, this is pretty much what what I had uh had expected." Uh um Jeremy I think you thought that the Fed should probably cut too, right? So that suddenly you're in you're in the camp here you are on Trump's side again.

11. But yeah, you probably can't stand the the assault on Fed independence and the and the the pal bashing and so here you're like so conflicted with with all this. This is this is really tr I agree that the rate should go down. Fed independence is really extremely important. Uh I I think there's no economist that doesn't say that.

12. Also, by the way, uh you know, you know, PAL is only one out of 12 votes. So, you know, if you you get some just because you get a chairman uh or a chairwoman, although that's not seemingly under consideration right now, back saying that we already have a dot plot of what the rest have expected. Uh there's been virtually no dissense.

13. Like there isn't like a group there that says yes. Yes. Waller and a couple of others. Waller and a couple others. Yeah. Yeah. But that's really you know out of you know out of 12 people that's not enough. And by the way if Trump replaces u Powell a lot of them can say hey you know they're not they're going to stand up against that and say hey but we're just not going to vote for it.

14. Now, just, you know, all 19, there's 19 people in the Federal Open Market Committee. Um, Dan, he's not going to be removing all votes.