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the current assessment is as you know we had a big problem in 2008 or so and then central banks and governments around the world started Printing and spending and borrowing money like never in recorded history the world economy has been flooded with money and spending since then America has never gone so deeply in debt so fast as we have done in the last decade more than a decade now 13 years so yes we're all floating on a bit of you've all the artificial stimulation uh it always comes to an end no matter how much you pump into the economy it seems to be coming to an end inflation is coming back which leads to higher interest rate and some people are starting to say wait a minute this is too much that this is absurd not everybody so I'm not sure if the world has come to an end yet but I do know it's going to come to an end eventually in the form of another bear Markham and you remember 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt since 2009 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed the world has never seen anything like this accumulation of increase in debt so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I mean it's simple arithmetic that that has skyrocketed everywhere it's going to lead to a problem someday and maybe today is someday or maybe it's already in process well given that the people in the Federal Reserve are not very smart people you know their academics and bureaucrats they mainly want to keep their job what they will do at the first sign of some some good news and it may already be here they will start talking about and even acting on slowing down it sounds like they're going to slow down for a while because they think things are better and they may be at least on paper but eventually they're going to print money till we run out of trees that's what all they know if there start to be a lot of bankruptcies or even a few bankruptcies they will get phone calls from people saying you must save us this is a matter of Western Civilization you must save us they will panic and they will print more money I don't think in the history of the world many central banks has had two bad guys it's time for a lot of bankruptcies go down the tubes that's not the way bureaucrats think that's not the way academics think and the end result will be not good for you and me but it might temporarily save their jobs well let's go back to the last time something like this happened which was the 1970s inflation kept getting worse and worse and the central Bankers made it worse and worse but then the president who was Jimmy Carter at the time said to Paul volcker who he was going to appoint as head of the Federal Reserve Boca was a bureaucrat but volca understood the situation and Carter said to Volker you do whatever you have to do Boca did right what he had to do volca knew what had to happen I mean this will shock some people put interest rates on treasury bills short-term U.S government treasury bills went to over 21 my that's not a typo 20 what percent on treasury bills because Volcan tightened and tightened and tight he and and Carter said okay well it caused bad times but it chilled inflation Carter lost the election but it did Kill inflation I don't think that there's a politician in the land today who would do that or support that and I'm not sure that many bureaucrats I don't see this guy we have now is another Paul Walker and again I don't think we have a Paul volcker in the U.S and eventually they will cave in but usually the most reactive are the things that reacts first to things like mortgages because it gets a potential home buyer that day he says gosh gosh look how much my monthly payments will go up uh if I have to take a mortgage and I'm floating rate mortgage a very hard it's hard to get fixed rate mortgages these days so they get hit first but then it seeps through to everybody else a bondholders start losing money and they start feeling some kind of pain and eventually all of us you know that's it's on the evening news by the time it's evening news it's usually pretty much the end but you know no we all suffer you said interest rates are high oh they're higher than they were a year ago but I want to hearken back to 21 treasury bills which have happened and can happen again in the late 1970s America as a nation was still a creditor Nation we had debts but it was on balance we were still a creditor nation which we remained until the mid 80s so there are many different things now as far as we are concerned we being the United States and our situation is much much worse if there's good news on the horizon or starts happening if the signal to the central banks hey we can ease up we don't have to be so bad for a while and that makes many people in the markets more enthusiastic and more confident and we have big rallies we have periodically had recession since the beginning of time all over the world but it always has been I presume it always will be but Janet Yellen said there was a secretary of Transit no no we have figured it all out don't worry we have it under control well she's got degrees from a couple of fancy Ivy League schools so if you believe her then when you know why Washington's sorted all this out now I happen to know she's wrong and I happen to know that we will have recessions again in the world and the next one has to be very bad as I explained 2008 was a nightmare for many of us or many people since then the debt has gone up by astonishing amounts so that next time we have a problem just simple audition uh look out the window the dead is skyrocketing everywhere so the next problem has to be very very bad it'll be the worst in my lifetime and I'm older than you so be the worst in your lifetime too I think that'd be the worst in the world the worst in history or anything like that I just said in my lifetime yes we had recession but we've had recessions since the beginning of time in the Old Testament the Old Testament they talked about seven good years and seven mean years you know you and I are not the first people to know that we have hard times sometimes in in the world and in history been going on for many but many decades many centuries these interest rates in the United States in 2022 well by historic standards are not high they're higher than they were a year ago but does he looked back at the history of America the history of any country but since we're Americans these are not high interest rates in American history so they have the scope and the historic president to go much much higher which I suspect they will for the reasons that we've discussed and that will have a dramatic effect on housing we have had a huge amount of Home Building in the last decade or so I don't have the numbers at hand but I know everybody has been building houses some would call that a bubble but even if it's not a bubble it has certainly been a boom and when that comes to an end you know if your house goes down in price you it it doesn't affect you too badly unless you have to sell or something but then when your neighbor's houses start going down and you your relatives houses start going down then you really feel the pressure because you know uh oh if I have to sell or whatever whatever wealth I thought I had I don't have anymore and then people everywhere start talking about it because you know one of the things that many people talk about are property prices house prices and if they start going down there's going to be high on their list of things to talk about much higher than the football game if everybody's house price is going down everybody's going to talk about it and moan and complain which leads to more pessimism just look at the numbers and and what has happened throughout history yes we've had lots I mean I think unemployment has been the lowest in a long time uh in the U.S when we start having problems it goes from the lowest it usually goes much higher you know things when they get over extended on the downside they get overextended on the upside the way the world works that's the way history works so no of course I would expect unemployment to go higher and higher I mean this has been going on a long long long time so don't listen to me just read some history do your own research and then you will get knowledgeable and if you get knowledgeable you will get worried because you will see this has happened many times before and it's going to happen again as it always has and those who are prepared and knowledgeable will do well and survive
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