저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기 가치주 로테이션은 과열 성격이 있어 대선 이후 성장주 반등 가능성이 크니 가치주 반등 때 매도 차익실현을 권함. [시장 상황] 다우 423포인트 상승, S&P500 1.23% 상승, 나스닥은 약보합권에서 반등 시도. 지난주 기술주 급락 후 투자자들이 성장주를 팔고 가치주로 자금을 옮김. [JP모건 보고서] 167페이지 주식전략 보고서가 '성장주에서 가치주로 전환'을 권고. 캐터필러, 셰브런 등 경기민감주로 자금 이동을 유도한 촉매. [로테이션 자금 흐름] 기술주 자금은 석유(셰브런 약 4% 상승), 산업재(3M 약 2%, 캐터필러 약 4%, 허니웰 약 5%), 은행(JP모건 약 2%)으로 이동. 실적이 부진했던 종목들도 반등. [기술주 평가] 아마존은 좋지만 싸다고 보기 어렵고, 줌은 매출 대비 50배, 애플은 PER 30배 이상으로 고평가 부담. 팔란티어 등 고평가 기술주는 차익실현 대상. [가치주 한계] 석유 사업은 나쁘고 엑손모빌의 약 10% 배당수익률은 지속가능성이 의문. 크레이머는 가치주 랠리를 이용해 정리하라고 권함. [대선 및 경기 전망] 선거 결과 확정 후 기술주 반등 기대. 하루 확진자 10만 명 이상 신기록으로 팬데믹 통제 불능, 경기 둔화 우려. 추가 경기부양책 기대. [시나리오별 결론] 트럼프 재선이든 바이든 당선이든 봉쇄나 병상 부족 등으로 경기 둔화가 이어져 가치주는 실패하고 성장주가 승리한다고 판단. [결론 요약] 가치주는 '저평가 가치'와 '가치 함정' 구분이 필요하며, 로테이션 랠리에서 차익실현 후 성장주 중심 대응이 유리하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
. Here we go again with the value overgrowth trade which is how you get a day where the Dow jumps 423 points. S& gains 1.23% while the Nasdaq just inches up42% after spending a lot of time being way down in what was a very ugly swoon. The house of pain. Look, I get it. High-flying tech stocks have had a huge run.
Value has lagged. So, as we picked through the rubble from last week, investors are dumping growth stocks and swapping into value names. Uh, at some points today, well, it was pretty much breathtaking fashion. As someone who's watched these rotations come and go over decades of observations, let me explain how they work to help you get your head around the collapse of tech that's been in the making for a week and the sentence of some of the most pedestrian companies around.
First, early this morning, well before we even got near the opening bell, probably around like four o'clock, 4:15, every stock seemed to be indicated higher. It looked like the start of a big broad-based move that could rever reverse a huge chunk of last week's selloff. And by the way, it between five and six was being led by tech.
The strength felt widespread, perhaps a follow through from the late day rebattle Friday. There's just one problem. Investors legitimately have no idea what's coming in in the next 48 or even 72 hours or however long it takes to count the votes and they're susceptible to any suggestion that might transcend the election.
In other words, everyone's sick of the election. They want to make some money in spite of it, not because of it. Honestly, I don't think anything will be able to withstand the withering fire of the actual election results. At least not in the short term. But traders are determined to make money every day.
Hey, they refuse to be deterred by the ballot box or the virus for that matter. Into that vortex, voila, comes a war and peacized tome from JP Morgan research. You always love that when you when someone sends it to you says, "Listen, be careful. It's 167 pages. Be careful because no one wants to print that out.
A lot of trees." Uh, and what does it say? Well, I'm going to give you the gist of it. It says, "Time to abandon growth. Switch back to value." H I think it would have been more valuable before tax come up. last week. Usually, this kind of note has enough staying power to influence a couple of portfolio managers in the morning, convincing them to dump tech and maybe swap into say Caterpillar or Chevron.
Well, THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED. SEE, I looked at the piece and I'll admit it makes some sense. I mean, even after last week slacking, most tech stocks have had huge runs and their valuations are stretched. I love Amazon, but I I can't seriously argue that it's a cheap stock. Hey, we had Rowan Trellop, the CEO of 59 on the show Friday.
He had just delivered one of the best best quarters of the year. Picture perfect and his stock was up more than 130% for the year. So that you know that was vulnerable. Zoom videos had a great run but at the highs is trading at 50 times sales not earnings sales. Even Apple which has long sold major discount to the big tech peers finally climbed high enough to join the over 30 times earnings club.
These red hot tech stocks were all ripe for the trimming. They were practically begging for some profiting. Same goes for the rest of Fang, Facebook, Netflix, Alpha, Alphabet, they were ready, although Alphabet did plan such a good quarter. They all suffered hideous, well, no, I shouldn't say all. That's too broad.
Most of them suffered hideous liquidations. But in a rotation, that money doesn't just disappear from the market, right? It doesn't go into cash. Oh, it just goes right into another group. So, where did all the tech money go? First, it plowed into oil. All the oils as the price of crude rebounded very low levels.
The best representative, Chevron, it was up 4%. CHEVRON, DID YOU SEE THE QUARTER ON FRIDAY? IT WAS SO UGLY. I DIDN'T WANT TO WASTE MY TIME ON IT, BUT I HAD TO. IT POURED INTO THE INDUSTRIALS. 3M RALLIED NEARLY 2%. That I said that Mike Gran doing a good job there, but no one liked it last week. Caterpillar vaulted 4%.
They missed their quarter. They missed it. Uh Honeywell initially fell four points on Friday after reporting before stabilizing, getting a little rally. Today, IT CAUGHT FIRE. WAS UP 5%. I MEAN, WHERE WERE THE BUYERS AT 162? EVEN THE BANKS GOT TO group back going today JP Morgan was the cheapest as I've seen it in ages.
Today, finally, it gained 2%. I mean, for this stock to gain 2% is well, I don't know. I mean, they have to have found gold in the vault. This move was as easy as a rotation in volleyball. Suddenly, the value stocks find themselves at the net, hammering it down the throats of the other team, spiking it.
The tech all stars like Shopify and Kramer Fave Octa just got crushed. Only a handful of the red hots were able to hang in there like the stink snowflake, the most expensive stock in the market. And of course, the sainted Tesla. What was JP Morgan's thesis when they told Wall Street to dump growth go all in value?
Well, they're betting we'll get some encouraging economic numbers, which makes these beaten down cyclicals like whoa, there we go. Um, more attractive, especially versus tech. They figure we'll see a a turn coming in January. Well, as it happens, WE GOT A stronger than expected PMI number today, this very morning, which then sent the rotation into overdrive.
People said JP Morgan's on to something. However, as we got closer to the end of the day, tech got its mojo back. Sorry to use such a technical term, and the NASDAQ was able to mount a half decent comeback. It felt like the JP Morgan report was already fading away. It's like in the rearview window. Yeah.
So, tech tried its best to play catch-up. Be a new piece tomorrow, no doubt. Now, before I get into specifics, I've got to tell you, I hate these growth versus value calls. Why? Well, first, they're usually made by very smart people who know they can make a splash. And this equity strategy piece did just that.
It was filled with really cool looking charts and graphs, authoritative sounding commentary, made you want to take action. But what if the recommended action is wrong? What if the growth stocks aren't done going higher? What if value isn't really a coherent category? What if the text's horrifying decline last week and then ugliness today before a hard pureette actually defined a bottom not a top right in the face of the JP Morgan War Moran peace novel second rotations make you suspend any work you've done on individual stocks forget the Chevron and Exxon which screamed higher today just report your horrendous QUARTERS PAY NO ATTENTION to the fact that crude's still down dramatically over the past couple weeks don't worry about Exxon's possibly unsustainable 10% yield hard to find anything with more value than oil Eight.
Wrong. The oil business is terrible. But in rotation, nobody wants to let the facts get in the way of the story. Right. Third, hello, there's an election tomorrow. Once we have certainty on the outcome, the tech stocks will be a coiled spring and the value stocks will be spent. How do I know this? Because I run a charitable trust, which owns a bunch of value stocks.
I feared that their subpar earnings would keep them from running. Thanks to JP Morgan, they actually got some win in their sales. What an opportunity to hit the eject button after a couple days rally. Thank you JP Morgan. However, once we find out who the next president is, we're we're going to be still faced what say with a co-led slowdown.
Have you noticed that? There are over 100,000 new cases on Friday. New record. The pandemic is frankly out of control, which is bad news for America. Whether you like or hate the president, good for the stocks that help promote digitization and make it easier for us to work from home. That's been accelerated.
Remember, finally, regardless of who wins tomorrow, we're getting another stimulus package. Maybe later this month, maybe in January. Uh, but whatever that comes, it will be too late to offset the economic damage from this new wave of COVID cases. Sadly, that's when growth thrives RIGHT HERE. I LOVE THIS.
Too late. I was going to put it over here. Almost needed technical help. No one's allowed to touch me. We have a real Hopson's choice going here. If President Trump wins, his lazy fair approach will have its own set of consequences. Sooner or later, the hospitals will get overwhelmed. In some places, they're already running out of control.
They're running out of beds. And even without a lockdown, people will be afraid to leave their homes. Where Biden wins and we get into a partial lockdown where people are also afraid to leave their homes. Under both scenarios, value fails, growth wins. That said, this kind of rotation call is a godsend.
If you own the oil stocks, you're finally getting a chance to sell them into some strength, which is I am pleading you to do. Here's the bottom line. Whenever you see someone preaching about growth versus value, you got to remember that there's growth, there's value, and there's a little known third category.
It's called no value. The beaten down stocks that deserve to go even lower. The nov value names are like roach motels. Buyers check in, but they can't check out unless a firm like JP Morgan steps in with a, you know, kind of a bullish too bullish piece, too bullish piece about value versus growth. And that gives you a chance to escape. .
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