Market bull Tom Lee lists three election scenarios, predicts a year-end rally

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2020년 대선 전날 방송으로, 대선 결과와 무관하게 증시가 오를 것이라는 Tom Lee의 낙관론 중심 영상입니다. 시나리오 1 - 블루웨이브(기본 시나리오): 여론조사와 베팅시장이 지지하는 결과. 재정부양책 기대와 연준의 완화 기조로 경기순환주 중심 랠리가 나타나 S&P500 약 3600(약 10% 상승)을 예상. 다만 규제 강화와 증세 우려로 기술주는 상대적으로 부진할 수 있다고 봄. 시나리오 2 - 트럼프 재선·상원 공화당 유지(서프라이즈): 여론조사·베팅시장과 달리 실제로 가능성이 있다고 봄. 규제 완화, 봉쇄 위험 감소, 감세 기대로 경기순환주 강세와 기술주 지속 상승이 겹쳐 S&P500 약 3700(15~17% 상승)을 예상. 시나리오 3 - 합의되지 않은 선거(개표 분쟁): 불확실성이 있지만 선거 이후 상황이 정리되고, 상원 주도권 향방과 재정부양책 통과 가능성, 연준의 개입 준비로 5~7% 상승(S&P500 약 3500)을 예상. 결론적으로 세 시나리오 모두 증시 상승이라는 견해이며, 최근 2주간 약 8~10% 하락 후 기관의 헤지 포지션과 개인 투자자의 현금 대기 자금이 반등 동력이 될 것이라고 주장. 변동성 지수(VIX)는 현재 39 수준으로 이미 공포가 상당히 반영되어 있으며, 승복 연설 등 명확한 결과가 나오면 VIX가 30 초반 또는 20대 후반까지 하락할 것으로 봄. 계약 분쟁 시나리오의 부정적 요인은 어느 정도 가격에 반영되었다는 입장. 진행자는 시나리오 모두 상승이라는 주장에 의문을 제기하며 기업 밸류에이션 부담, 경기 불안, 주택 관련 업종 반등 가능성, 유가의 예상외 움직임 등을 언급함. 시장 불안 요인과 기본 지표 우려를 강조하는 입장으로 Tom Lee의 낙관론과 대비됨.

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01. As we count down to the election, our next guest is laying out the three big market scenarios that could play out based on tomorrow's results.

02. Let's trade the vote with Tom Lee, head of research at FundStrat Global Advisors. Tom, great to have you with us. Let's start off with the base case scenario, which is a blue wave. That's right. Heading into election day, we're assuming investors aren't on a buyer strike. It's been an emotional two weeks, and retail investor cash has actually risen, so people are just waiting for some certainty. In our view, the base case is a blue wave, which is reflected in the polls and the betting markets. I've heard what you guys have talked about, but I think this results in a 10% rally in equities, so the S&P at roughly 3,600. You're going to get a pretty big lift in cyclicals based on fiscal stimulus, the Fed staying easy, and a relief rally. I think that's somewhat offset by tech potentially trailing because of the risk of increased regulation and higher taxes.

03. Okay, so that's the base case. What's the other scenario? Status quo, correct? Yes. I think the surprise case would be that Trump is re-elected and the Senate remains Republican. It's a surprise because the polling markets aren't reflecting it, and the betting markets show Trump as an underdog. But I think this is actually a positive surprise. The stock market might rally 15 to 17%, something like the S&P at 3,700. That's because we could see less regulatory risk, less regulatory creep, and less risk of lockdowns given the current administration's approach. And there's the possibility of a tax cut. So I think you'll get a big cyclical rally, and tech keeps running. That extra tech boost is how you get to 3,700 on the S&P.

04. And the third scenario is some form of contested election? Yes. I've heard you guys say it's uncertainty, and I agree it's uncertainty, but it's actually less uncertainty. Incrementally, it's more certain, because we're now through election night. I still think you get a 5 to 7% rally, which is the S&P at 3,500. First, I think Washington goes back to focusing on who controls the Senate. But we're also likely to get fiscal stimulus passed before year-end, and the Fed is likely to make some intervention, or announce or prepare to announce one, if markets become unstable. So I think the market still gets a lift, and 3,500 just takes us to about two weeks before election day.

05. So basically, Tom, in all the scenarios you outlined, the markets will be higher? That doesn't sound right to me. It's a win-win-win no matter what. Yes, and I'm pointing that out because we've gone through an excruciating two weeks in which the markets lost nearly 10%, because nobody rationally was buying equities. We've had a lot of selling and repositioning. So part of our presumption is that we've had a huge imbalance: sellers for two weeks, we're down 8%, and cash is on the sidelines, as Guy pointed out. The VIX has gone to very high levels of anxiety. A drop in the VIX, plus cash moving off the sidelines, is still going to get us to rally. I'm glad you mentioned that, because that's my question. In my opinion, the concession speech either way takes the VIX from today's close of 39 down to the low 30s, if not the high 20s. But has a contested election already been priced in at a VIX of 39? Is that your point, that the entire negative scenario is somewhat priced in relative to the VIX? I believe so. I'm going to make an assumption here, but active institutional equity investors have done a lot of hedging, either in the derivatives or futures markets. They haven't bet on these two weeks being smooth; they've been bracing for a lot of turbulence. So there will be repositioning after the election. On the retail side, I think that's why cash balances have been creeping up for the last three or four weeks. Investors are essentially on the sidelines because they're better prepared for a contested election. A concession, or a clear outcome, would be a massive bullish signal.

06. Tom, great to speak with you. Thanks. Thanks, Tom Lee of FundStrat. By the way, CNBC will have full-team coverage of tomorrow night's election starting at 7 p.m. Eastern and running through the entire night, all the way through Squawk Box, so you won't want to miss that. Let's trade this. Tim, I noticed you were smirking when Tom outlined the three winning scenarios, because every scenario is a winning scenario for the S&P, apparently. Well, I'm never smirking at Tom. Tom is certainly taking a glass-half-full approach to three scenarios. I think the market has a lot of anxiety, yes, but the market has reason for a lot of anxiety: a lot of dysfunction, and valuations that aren't terribly cheap, in an economy where, yes, I know we had a 3.2% GDP number, and there's a reason for that. So this week we also have a payroll number, we have the Fed, and there are other things the market can focus on that get us back to fundamentals. Part of today's rally, and part of our market conversation, is a rebound in housing. I think housing-related trades are important, because I think that continues into the second part. And notice oil: oil has priced in the fact that basically a blue wave is the expectation, and yet today it acted very differently. I think there's good news in oil, especially on the expectation that the surprise might be something that isn't priced in.