저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
요약 보기
멍거의 2021년 데일리저널 연례회의 발언을 정리한 2편 요약. 결론: 멍거는 가치투자를 넓게 정의하며 소수 집중 투자와 장기 보유를 강조하고, 비트코인은 비생산자산으로 부정적으로 본다. 가치투자 정의: 멍거는 가치투자를 저PER·저PBR로 한정하지 않고, 지불한 것보다 더 많은 가치를 얻으려는 모든 투자로 본다. 성장주도 미래 현금흐름 기대가 합리적이면 가치투자가 될 수 있다. 분산투자: 종목 100개 이상 보유는 광기이며, 4~5개의 확신 있는 투자가 100개를 찾는 것보다 쉽다고 본다. 100종목 펀드는 시장 수익률과 비슷해지고 비용만 든다. 비트코인·금: 데일리저널은 테슬라를 따라 비트코인을 매수하지 않는다. 비트코인은 금과 같은 비생산자산이며 현금흐름을 만들지 않아 가치 산정이 어렵다고 본다. 오스카 와일드 인용으로 조롱. 비야디(BYD): 데일리저널 보유 주식으로 5년간 횡보 후 작년 5배 상승. 중국 자동차의 전기차 전환 수혜 기대. 멍거는 세금 부담 때문에 매도를 피하고 장기 보유 성향을 보인다. 매도 원칙: 멍거는 좋은 기업은 가격이 올라도 장기 보유하며, 과열 버블 수준이 아니면 팔지 않는다. 벤처캐피털 친구처럼 절반을 회수하는 방식도 감정 관리 측면에서 인정한다. 초기 vs 성숙 기업: 멍거·버핏은 성숙 산업의 확립된 기업 투자에 강점이 있고, 세쿼이아 같은 초기 벤처투자는 다른 전문성이라고 평가한다. 자신과 맞는 방식을 선택하라는 메시지다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없음. 장기 관점 발언만 있음.
다듬은 글
so a couple of days ago charlie munger sat down and answered questions for two hours for the daily journal annual meeting and just after that i posted a video with some of my favorite clips from that interview however i was unable to fit all of the clips that i wanted in that single video and since that video was so well received i thought that i would do a follow-up with some extra clips from that two-hour meeting covering some of the other parts of the interview that i thought were really valuable for retail investors like us to understand these kinds of videos take a long time to put together there's a lot of prep that goes into these videos so if you do get some value out of it i would very much appreciate it if you could go below the video and leave a like on the video and make sure you stick around to the end because i will be announcing the february giveaway winners but with that said let's jump into the first clip do you think value investing is still relevant and what about passive investing value investing the way i regard it will never go out of style because value investing the way i conceive it is is always wanting to get more value than you pay for when you buy a stock and and that approach will never go out of style some people think that value investing is you chase companies which have a lot of cash and they're in a lousy business or something but i don't define that as value investing i think all good investing is value investing it's just that some people look for values in strong companies and some look for values in weak companies but but every value investor tries to get more value than he pays for what is interesting is that in wealth management a lot of people think that if they have a hundred stocks they're investing more professionally than they are if they have four or five i regard this as insanity absolute insanity i find it much easier to find four or five investments where i have a pretty reasonable chance of being right that they're way above average i think it's much easier to find five than it is to find a hundred in this first clip charlie monger tackles a couple of key investing principles or key investing areas the first is what he defines as value investing and how you should be thinking about value investing when you're looking at businesses to invest in and then the second part is in terms of his ideas on diversification a lot of people define value investing very very narrowly they put it into a category where you're looking at businesses that have to have a really low price to earnings ratio and or a low price to book ratio and of course a business that has significant growth and that has a pa of say 25 or 30 that is always going to be a growth investment and is never a value investment but charlie munger doesn't actually see value investing in that way similar to warren buffett he defines value investing much more broadly to include all kinds of investing where you're trying to get more value back than you put out and what he essentially means by that is that you outlay cash when you invest in a business and you should be running calculations in order to estimate how much cash is going to come back to you while you hold that investment and this way of looking at value investing broadly means that you're not limited to looking at businesses that strictly have low price book low price earnings you can look at businesses that are priced higher relative to their current earnings as long as the future growth of that business the higher future expectations of growth are reasonable so for some businesses ten percent per year growth over the next five years is very very reasonable because of their dominance in that market or maybe because the industry is growing at a huge rate whereas for other businesses a 10 per year growth rate over the next five years is something that may be very very challenging to achieve because maybe it's an industry that is not growing or it's an industry that's even shrinking over time or just an industry that is very very competitive he then discusses his opinions on diversification and in classic warren buffett or charlie munger style he thinks that diversification as an active stock picker as an active investor is not something that you should seek out he thinks that well as he said it is much easier to find five really good investments five really good businesses than to try and find 100 good investments a lot of actively managed funds at the moment will have portfolios with 100 stocks 200 stocks 300 stocks or even more businesses in their portfolio and these are portfolios that are actively managed meaning the manager is looking at these businesses and choosing which ones to sell down or trim and choosing which ones to add to and if you're managing that many businesses first of all if you go that broad then your return is likely going to be very similar to the market so why not just invest in the market and reduce all of those expenses related to actively managing the portfolio but the other thing is if you're looking at a hundred different businesses your time and research is split between many of them and of course some active fund managers a lot of active fund managers have big research teams behind them but the best funds that operate actively have one active manager and they're investing in a small number of businesses because they are focused on which investments they're making and they're very very selective and they make sure they only invest in businesses they are very very confident will make the money over the long term charlie you actually got a couple of questions from shareholders um about bitcoin and yes if your opinion on cryptocurrencies has remained the same and would the daily journal consider bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency as an asset on the balance sheet similar to what tesla recently did no we will not be following tesla into bitcoin bitcoin reminds me of what oscar wilde said about fox hunting he said it was the pursuit of the uneatable by the unspeakable in this very brief clip charlie munger again reiterates his opinion on bitcoin saying that he views it very much in a similar light to gold in that it's a non-productive asset right and when i'm when we're saying a non-productive asset what we mean is if you buy gold or you buy bitcoin besides being able to sell that to someone for a higher price or a lower price or the same price it doesn't do anything in the meantime right and that's different to productive assets like say a property or a business where if i don't sell my property if i buy property and i can't sell it for some reason i can still do something with it i can rent it out right or if it's a block of land i could put a farm on it and i could grow things on it right assets that can do something are called productive assets and those are assets that charlie munger and warren buffett are much more interested in they want assets that produce cash flow and businesses also fit into that category it's also a lot easier to calculate the value of a productive asset compared to calculating the value of something like gold because the value of a productive asset is the cash that it can produce and return to you which makes perfect sense right you're buying an investment to get something back so if i'm buying a property and i can figure out exactly what i can get back from that property through renting it out and generating cash flow net of my expenses then i can figure out exactly what it's worth and the same thing is true for a business a business that produces profit has a network of people and buildings and machinery and all of these different things and customers and is all working like this big machine to produce cash flow and then deliver it to me and in that way you can easily or a lot easier than other assets at least it's not easy but easier than other assets you can estimate what its value is and therefore figure out what price is appropriate to pay byd is in the daily journal stock portfolio with a very big paper gain the stock has gained so much this year and last year the stock appreciated probably way more than intrinsic value how do you decide to hold on to a stock or sell some well that's a very good question byd stock did nothing for the five years the first five years we held it and last year at quintupled and what happened was that byd is very well positioned for the transfer of chinese automobile production from gasoline fire driven cars to electricity driven cars you can't imagine it's in a wonderful position and that excited the people in china which has its share of crazy speculators and so the stock went way up since we admire the company and like its position and we like it's we have a tendency to and we pay huge taxes to a combination of the federal government and the state of california when we sell something and on balance we're we hold in to certain of these positions when normally they we wouldn't buy a new position practically everybody does that one of my smartest friends in venture capital is constantly getting huge clumps of stocks at nosebleed prices and what he does is he sells about half of them always that way whatever happens he feels smart i don't follow that practice but i don't criticize it either in this clip we get an interesting insight into how charlie munger approaches selling expensive businesses and how he deals with uh businesses that he's purchased that have now gone up in price as well as what does he do if a business that he likes goes up in price does he continue to buy it at that higher price or does he hold back and no longer buy and charlie munger basically says that he is a buy and hold investor in that if he buys a business of course when he's investing into a company he's looking to buy them at a really really cheap valuation but if that price of that business of that great business then goes up and becomes fairly valued and then goes on even to become expensive he will typically hold on to that business and he quotes tax as one of the key reasons for that but he also justifies justifies it through wanting to hold on to really great businesses over the long term even as their prices rise he also talks about one of his venture capital friends who tends to take half of the investment off the table so that if the stock goes down or the stock goes up uh he wins either way and he says that he doesn't have a problem with that personally it's not the way that i go about it but i know that a lot of people do a very very similar thing maybe not taking half the investment off but a lot of people if a stock goes up significantly will take out their initial investment so that whatever is left they are just kind of playing with the profits and that way they won't feel bad if the stock ends up going down and there's no definitive way that you should be approaching that part of analysis in many ways the way that you should approach it should be to align your emotions to not be triggered in the markets because one of the biggest reasons why you will fail as an investor is you will let your emotions drive your decision-making so if taking off a little bit of your and taking out your initial capital that you initially invested or selling half of your investment if that makes you a lot calmer about your investments in the market then that may end up being the best strategy for you there's no real definitive way that you should go about it in this circumstance personally i lean much closer to charlie munger and warren buffett in that i'm a buy and hold investor so even if a stock for a really great business goes up substantially over time i'm very likely i'm very unlikely to sell that stock unless it goes up an insane amount to a bubble level um in most cases i'm just going to hold on to that business and then wait and hopefully it gets cheap again so that i can stockpile and add more to that investment do you think it's best to invest in the common stocks of businesses early while they are more nascent and the industry is smaller or and wait until they are the clear winner of a more mature industry well i think warren and i are better at at buying mature industries than we are at backing startups like sequoia the best venture capital operation probably in the whole world is sequoias and they are very good at this early stage investing and i would hate to compete with sequoia in their field i think they'd run rings around me so i think for some folks early stage investing is best and for other folks what i've done in my life is best in this clip we get an interesting discussion around what types of businesses or what size of business you should try and focus on finding charlie munger says that he has built his wealth on finding really established larger businesses mature businesses but he recognizes that other people are very good at picking businesses at different stages right that's his area of expertise but it doesn't necessarily need to be your area of expertise there are certainly people who are very very good at picking out businesses at a very very early stage and when they're investing in early stage businesses they may invest in 30 of those early stage businesses and then they're hoping that one of those goes on to become a really really successful business whereas charlie munger has kind of a a very opposite approach to that in that he is finding businesses that are already established already mature very very predictable and then only buying a few of them being very confident in the amount of cash flow those businesses can deliver to him but that's all the clips that we had for today i hope you guys enjoyed today's video and i'd love to hear now as i said at the start of the video i will be announcing the giveaway winners so the giveaway winners will be on screen right now if that is your name on screen then congratulations you have won yourself a free copy of the essays of warren buffett which is my personal favorite investing book it consolidates a lot of warren buffett's teachings over the years over the past 50 years really and it is just a fantastic book so i'll be reaching out to all of you via email in order to send those out so congratulations and uh thanks everyone who everyone else who are also entered into the competition but uh with that said i hope you guys enjoyed today's video leave a like on it if you did and hit subscribe if you want to see more content like this in the future but with that said uh i'll see you guys in the next video
댓글 0