저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 1999년 기고문을 근거로 향후 10~17년간 주식 시장 수익률이 과거보다 약할 수 있다고 분석. 1965~1982년엔 금리 상승과 이익 정체로 주가가 실질 약 50% 손실, 1982~1999년엔 금리 하락과 이익 성장으로 크게 상승. 현재 S&P500 PER 약 30배로 높아 과거 1999년과 유사하며, 금리 하락 없이 PER이 15~24배로 수축하면 10년 뒤 S&P500이 약 4,700~7,490포인트 수준에 그칠 수 있다는 시나리오 제시. 다만 개별 종목 투자와 달리 지수 투자는 단기 예측보다 꾸준한 투자가 유효하다고 결론.
다듬은 글
I think it's very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like they've performed in the past 17 Warren Buffett wrote this in 1999 he correctly predicted that the stock market which had been rising at an astounding rate wouldn't increase much for a very long time a measly 2.5% annual return for 17 years but the most interesting part is that the factors Buffett pointed to as predictors of weak future stock returns are once again screaming out at us today and coincidentally or maybe not Buffett has been selling a lot of stock in 2024 he's sitting on the highest allocation of cash that he's ever had so if the stock market was to crash like it did shortly after his fortune article then he certainly has plenty of cash to deploy okay let's start by looking at what happened between 1965 and 1982 looking at a 17-year period from 59 years ago might seem a little random but it'll make sense in a moment the S&P 500 Rose from 85 points to just 141 points a 66% gain that's already a very weak return but it's actually much worse than that inflation during the 70s and early 80s was extremely high the prices of goods and services almost tripled between 1965 and 1982 so we could imagine a person investing $10,000 in the stock market in 1965 by 1982 it would be worth around $16,600 but the goods and services that you could have bought with $10,000 in 1965 now costs about $30,000 so once you take into account inflation your real wealth during this 17-year period actually declined by 50% and that's not even the crazy part you'd think something like this could only happen if the economy performed really poorly during this period it didn't US GDP Grew From 697 billion to $3.4 trillion and almost 400% increase and corporate profits increased almost 300% this is the first case study Warren Buffett presents in his fortune article he points to the Dow Jones Industrial Average another stock market index which was practically flat from 1965 to 1982 during that same 17 years the GDP of the US that is the business being done in the country almost quintupled if we look at another measure the sales of the Fortune 500 more than six tled and yet the Dow went exactly nowhere this period of time is a fantastic example of how the stock market can become disconnected from the true value of the businesses within it if investors become too optimistic they bid up stock prices too fast Buffett examines the two important variables that explain why stock returns were so weak for such a long period of time and those two variables largely explain where the market is today and what we might expect in the future a quick reminder if you haven't subscribed for free to the channel yet we're almost at 200,000 subscribers so if you'd like to see my videos on your homepage every now and then consider hitting subscribe the first is interest rates these act on financial valuations the way gravity acts on matter the higher the rate the greater the downward pull all investment opportunities whether it's stock stocks bonds property are compared relative to each other you're thinking about how much cash the asset can deliver to you in the future and because nobody knows what the future holds you're also making an assessment about the likelihood of those cash flows coming to you or in other words the risk associated with those cash flows and at the safest end of all the possible Investments are US government bonds the cash flows that you receive from a US Government Bond are practically risk-free the bond tells you exactly how much it will pay and the US government has never failed to pay out a bond holder so us bonds act as a sort of Benchmark to all other Investments if you can get a 3% risk-free or near risk-free return from a Government Bond then at the very very least you would demand a 3% return from a stock and as that risk-free rate goes up or down so does the return investors Demand on stocks in the case of the 1965 to 1982 period interest rates Rose from 4.3% to 8.9% the return you could earn risk-free from buying a Government Bond went up substantially so investors required higher Returns on stocks or in other words they were willing to pay a smaller price or a lower price relative to their profits which undoubtedly contributed to the weak stock market performance during those years in the second case study that Buffett presents we see the exact opposite from 1982 to 1999 The Next 17-year Period interest rates fell from 88.9% to 5.3% and the S&P 500 Rose from 141 points to 1469 points a 942 increase during this period there was also considerable inflation but even after adjusting for that the stock market went up more than six-fold the increase in equity value since 19 81 beatss anything you can find in history this increase even surpasses what you would have realized if you bought stocks in 1932 at the depression bottom sharp changes in interest rates is obviously a very relevant Factor today in 2024 but it's just the first variable that Buffett discusses the second is corporate profits which he looks at as a percentage of US GDP in effect what this chart tells you is What proportion of GDP ended up each year with the shareholders of American Business of everything that the US is producing how much of it is going to stock market investors this comparison of corporate profits to GDP will become really important a little bit later when Buffett talks about how it is expected to change in the future corporate profits as a percentage of GDP has a huge effect on investor sentiment and therefore stock prices in 1965 it was 6.5% and fell to a low of 3.5% in the early 80s so not only were interest rates High providing a strong risk-free alternative to stocks profits from stocks had grown at a slower rate than the overall economy and as is so typical investors projected out into the future what they were seeing that's their unshakable habit looking in the rear viiew mirror instead of through the windshield from 1982 to 1999 US GDP Grew From 3.3 trillion to $9.9 trillion a 191% increase and corporate profits Rose 2 143% that growth is considerably slower than the previous 17 years and yet stock returns were significantly better I've thrown a whole bunch of numbers at you in the last couple of minutes so let me just do a quick summary Buffett's point was that large swings in interest rates have a big impact on how the stock market performs and performance is also impacted by whether corporate profits have been strong in the recent past as investors tend to incorrectly expect the recent strong or weak profits to continue in the future which brings us to the prediction Buffett made in that 1999 article a prediction that is valuable to us today because we can use his logic and apply it to today's data in 1999 the stock market was booming up almost tfold since 1982 most investors have Rosy expectations even those who have invested for more than 20 years are expecting 12.9% per year returns Buffett thought that it was very likely that stock market returns could be very weak for the next 17-year period 1999 to 2016 today if an investor is to achieve juicy profits in the market over 10 years or 17 or 20 one or more of three things must happen the first was that interest rates Must Fall further from the 6% level at the time something Buffett thought was unlikely the second was corporate profitability in relation to GDP must rise at the time corporate profits in the US totaled $591 billion or about 6% of the 9.9 trillion GDP that's just about where it sat on average for most of history as corporate profits over the very long term have risen at about a similar rate to nominal GDP so if investors expect stocks to return 30 1% per year in an environment where interest rates don't go down corporate profits must become a much larger percentage of GDP that or GDP would have to rise at double digits which is pretty unlikely for obvious reasons Buffett wrote in my opinion you have to be wildly optimistic to believe that corporate profits as a percentage of GDP can for any sustained period hold much above 6% he gave two reasons for this the first being competition if there's a lot of different businesses competing in the US for that profit pie then it's unlikely it can grow at a higher rate than GDP for a very long time the other factor is public policy if corporate investors in aggregate are going to eat an Ever growing portion of the American economic pie some other groups would have to settle for a smaller portion that would justifiably raise political problems and in my view a major reslicing of the pie just isn't going to happen so what actually ended up happening after 1999 well on the interest rates Point Buffett was actually wrong they did continue to decline falling to practically 0% by 2016 but he was right about corporate profits S&P 500 earnings doubled over the 17-year period and so did nominal GDP so the profits of companies in the s&p500 remained about the same percentage of economic output but even with profits doubling and and a huge cut in interest rates as a Tailwind the stock market went nowhere the S&P Rose a total of 52% but after adjusting for inflation just a 6.3% total increase over 17 years stocks became so egregiously overvalued in the late '90s that even with interest rate cuts and strong corporate profits the stock market didn't go up in 1999 stock prices were about 30 times the earnings of companies that contract to 24 times earnings by 2016 still higher than where it sits historically but enough to make stock returns very weak for more than a decade and this is really important today because once again the price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is about 30 just like in the past strong corporate profits have made investors extremely optimistic about growth in the future S&P 500 earnings have more than doubled since 2016 while nominal GDP has increased just 50% interest rates have also risen a lot since 2016 sitting around the same level they were in 1999 so I want to show you what might happen to stocks in the next decade if things play out in a similar way to how they did when Buffett wrote his fortune article nominal GDP growth is expected to be about 4.5% per year so if corporate profits rise about the same amount S&P 500 earnings would reach about $312 per share in 10 years time if the price to earnings ratio contracted from 30 to 24 just like it did between 99 and 2016 the S&P 500 would be at about 7,490 points a very weak 10-year period and practically no return in real terms if inflation is about 2% per year so one of the most important factors for stock returns over the next decade is whether the current price to earnings ratio of 30 times will contract back to historical Norms it contracted from 1999 to 2016 because sentiment around profit growth shifted the S&P only grew earnings at the pace of GDP while investors were expecting much more lower interest rates could provide a Tailwind for stocks but there's no guarantee it will prevent weak stock returns and there's also just no guarantee that we will see lower interest rates we could imagine another scenario where interest rates stay around this level which they've averaged historically again corporate profits rise at 4.5% per year in line with GDP but this time the price to earnings ratio of the S&P contracts to 15 its long run average in such a scenario the S&P 500 would be under 4700 points in 10 years almost 20% below the current level we can of course also consider a more optimistic scenario if the price to earnings ratio of the S&P was to stay where it is right now at around 30 then stock returns would approximate The Profit growth of the S&P 500 companies plus dividends so to earn a 15% perear return like the market has in recent years you'd need profits to rise at double digits of course there's no way for us to know whether or not this will happen but it would certainly be unusual from a historical perspective and it would mean that corporate profits as a percentage of GDP are at a level that has never been seen before and Buffett has his doubts about whether that's reasonable to expect but even if it is the case that some variable suggest that stock returns May more likely than not be weaker than they have in the recent past it shouldn't really change the way that you go about investing it's a reminder that you should only allocate money into stocks that you're willing to forego over the long term but assuming that you already know this it's certainly paid to be invested during the ups and downs rather than trying to trade in and out of the market based on Broad predictions Buffett is heavily invested in cash at the moment but that's because he invests in individual stocks not the index he decides whether to invest in individual companies based on their individual valuations but you're not doing that if you're buying the index you're just trying to invest consistently to mimic the return of the stock market Buffett's third sentence of the 1999 article makes this clear though I will be talking about the level of of the market I will not be predicting its next moves at Berkshire we focus almost exclusively on the valuation of individual companies looking only to a very limited extent at the valuation of the overall Market even then valuing the market has nothing to do with where it's going to go in the next week month or next year subscribe if you enjoyed the video and consider checking out one of these videos next
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