저자: DavidTepper—자막상'미상'소속명시없으나제목기준AppaloosaManagement · 외국인
요약 보기
데이비드 테퍼(Appaloosa) 13F 기반 포트폴리오 분석 영상. 알리바바(15.6%)·아마존·알파벳 등 상위 보유 종목을 일부 축소했고, 휠풀·중국 인터넷 ETF(QEB) 등을 확대한 것으로 설명. 대형 기술주 비중 축소 후 경기민감주와 지역은행으로 자금 이동을 시사하는 해석이 나옴. 영상 자체는 포트폴리오 구성 설명이 중심이며 대상 자산 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언은 거의 없음.
다듬은 글
David Ter from Appaloosa Management'; David Ter is one of those names that makes everyone in the room stop and listen. He's the founder of Appaloosa Management and a legend in the world of distress debt. Right now, his portfolio is sitting at a massive $7.4 billion. But looking at the numbers today, the portfolio is down about 2.3%.
Mike, when you look at Ter's top holdings, what is the first thing that jumps out at you? It has to be the sheer conviction he has in China right now. His largest holding by a significant margin is Alibaba Group Holding Limited. It makes up 15.6% of his entire portfolio. That is a $947 million position.
It is rare to see a hedge fund manager put that much weight into a single international stock, especially one that has been as volatile as Alibaba. It's a bold move, but it hasn't exactly been a smooth ride for him. The data shows he's actually down nearly 18% on this position overall. Even today, the stock took a hit of 2.6%.
It's currently trading around $146.92 with a price to earnings ratio of 20.9. Do you think he's seeing value where others see risk? That is exactly the ter playbook. Kia is a contraion at heart. Alibaba is trading well below its 52- week high of $192. In fact, it's closer to that midpoint of its $80 to $192 range.
He did trim the position recently by about 8.7%. That suggests he might be drisking just a little bit, but keeping 15% of your fund in one name is still a massive statement. There was some recent news about emerging market ETFs being high risk for American investors. Tappers seems to be ignoring that noise to focus on the fundamental cash flow.
Alibaba even pays a small dividend now about 68%. It's not much, but it's a change for a high growth tech giant. Now let's move to his second largest holding which is much closer to home. He has a huge stake in Amazon. It represents 7.4% of his portfolio that is worth about $64 million. Unlike Alibaba, he's actually up 10% on this one.
Amazon is such a powerhouse in this portfolio. Even though he trimmed it by 7.4% recently, it remains a core pillar for Appaloosa. The stock is trading at $241.96. It's actually very close to its 52- week high of $258. The valuation is much steeper than Alibaba, though. We are looking at a price to earnings ratio of 33.7.
Does that valuation worry you? Or is the growth in the cloud and retail sectors enough to justify it? With Amazon, you are paying for the dominant market share. Their earnings per share sit at $78. Ter is likely looking at the efficiency gains they've made in their logistics network. Interestingly, some recent analysts are telling investors to look at Amazon instead of traditional shipping stocks like UPS.
It shows how much they've disrupted the entire supply chain. Ter is playing the long game here. He's taking some profits by trimming, but he's clearly not exiting the story. It's interesting that he's trimming his winners and his losers. He also reduced his stake in Alphabet by 7 and a half%. Alphabet is his third largest holding at $4.6% of the portfolio.
This position is worth over $446 million. And Mike, the gains here are staggering. He is up 32% on his Alphabet position. It's a home run for him. Alphabet is trading at $32157. That is incredibly close to the top of its 52- week range. It has an earnings per share of $10 flat. Ter is sitting on a massive gain.
Trimming 7% of the position is just smart portfolio management. You have to lock in those gains eventually. Alphabet also started paying a dividend recently though it's tiny at 27%. The price to earnings ratio is around 30.5. When you compare that to Amazon, it actually looks somewhat reasonably priced for a tech giant.
There was some news recently about alphabetbacked ventures like semi forgetting huge valuations. It just reinforces how much reach this company has. It really does. But look at the pattern across these top three. Alibaba, Amazon, and Alphabet. He has reduced his position in all three of them in the recent period.
We are talking about trims between 7 and 9% across the board. To me, this signals that Ter might be getting a bit cautious about the broader market. He is moving some capital to the sidelines. Or perhaps he is preparing for a new distressed opportunity elsewhere. It's a pivot. He still has over $2 billion tied up in just these three companies.
That is a lot of concentration for a 7.4 billion fund. He is staying heavy in big tech and Chinese retail, but he is definitely shaving the edges. The daily change for Alphabet was actually positive today, up over 2%. That helped offset some of the pain from the Alibaba drop. That's the benefit of diversification.
Even in a concentrated portfolio, Alphabet and Amazon were both in the green today. Alibaba was the anchor dragging things down. Ter has always been willing to endure short-term pain for long-term payoffs. He did it in 2009 with the banks. He's doing it now with Chinese tech. He's looking at that 21p ratio on Alibaba and betting the market is wrong.
It takes nerves of steel to hold a $900 million position that is down nearly 18%. But that is why he is David Ter. He doesn't trade on emotion. He trades on the numbers. And right now the numbers tell him to stay the course with these giants. Even if he is taking a little bit of money off the table.
Exactly. He is managing the risk while keeping the core thesis intact. He's not running for the exits. He's just adjusting the sales. When you look at the 52- week ranges, both Amazon and Alphabet are near all-time highs. Alibaba is the outlier. It's the deep value play in a portfolio otherwise dominated by high-flying American tech.
It's a classic Ter setup. He has the steady growth of Google and Amazon to balance out the high-risk highreward potential of Alibaba. Mike, let's pivot to one of the most eyepopping moves in David Ter's latest filings. He increased his position in Whirlpool Corporation by nearly 2,000%. That is not a typo.
Why such a massive bet on appliances right now? It's a classic ter move, Sarah. He is looking for deep value in a sector that most people are avoiding. Whirlpool Corporation now makes up 5.8% of the total $7.4 billion portfolio. He holds 5.5 million shares worth about $425 million. The stock has been beaten down, trading at $77.28.
That is much closer to its 52- week low of $65 than its high of $135. But the housing market is slow, and people aren't exactly rushing to buy new washing machines. Is he just playing the dividend here? The dividend is definitely a cushion. It yields 4.7% right now, but Ter is likely looking at the long-term cycle.
He sees a company that just donated huge amounts of appliances to nonprofits, staying relevant in the community. He's betting that when interest rates eventually settle, the pentup demand for housing and renovations will explode. Right now, he's down about 1.7% on the position. He is clearly comfortable waiting for the turn.
Speaking of waiting, let's talk about his China exposure. He's been very vocal about buying everything in China. The crane shares CSI China Internet ETF or QEB is a huge part of that. Exactly. QuB is 4.2% of his portfolio. He added 85% to that position recently. He's holding 7.4 million shares worth over $263 million.
It's been a painful trade so far with an overall loss of 15.3%. But look at his other China picks. He added 67% to BU and still holds massive stakes in PDD holdings and JD.com. He did trim PDD holdings and JD.com slightly though. Is he losing some conviction there? I think it's more about tactical rebalancing.
He trimmed PDD by 10% and JD by about 11%. Those are still core holdings. He's navigating a very complex geopolitical environment. Recent news shows a shift toward protectionism which hurts Chinese tech. But Ter is a distressed debt specialist at heart. He loves buying when the blood is in the streets.
Let's move to the semiconductor space. We can't talk about a 7 billion portfolio without mentioning Nvidia. Nvidia is still a powerhouse for Appaloosa. It's 4.8% of the portfolio worth nearly $359 million. Interestingly, he added 8.5% to the position recently. While others are worried about the 45p ratio, Ter seems to think the AI tailwinds are still strong, especially with news that Nvidia is looking to sell more advanced AI chips to China.
He's also playing the broader chip sector. I see a massive increase in Qualcomm. That was a huge jump. He added over 255% to Qualcomm. He now holds 1.2 million shares worth over $222 million. He's already up over 7% on that trade. It's a smart play on the mobile AI recovery. On the flip side, he trimmed Micron Technology by nearly 40%.
He's sitting on a 100% gain there. So, that's pure profit taking. What about the energy sector? NRG Energy and Vistra Corp have been huge winners this year. They have, but he's hitting the brakes. He reduced NRG Energy by 5% and slashed Vistra Corp by 30%. Vistra has been a monster performer, but it dropped 9% today.
Ter is likely locking in gains before the leadership succession plan at NRG creates any volatility. He still has nearly $200 million in Vistra, but he's clearly derisking. I noticed a lot of new activity in the banking sector, too. Truest Financial, Key Corp, and Citizens Financial Group are all new or expanded by positions.
It's a significant shift. He's buying regional banks with solid dividends. Truest yields over 4% and Key Corp is near 3.8%. 8%. These stocks are trading at very reasonable PE ratios like Truist at 12.5. He's positioning for a soft landing where these banks can finally start growing their loan books again.
We only have a minute left. What is the big takeaway from Ter's current strategy? Ter is playing a two-sided game. He's trimming his massive winners in big tech and power utilities like Microsoft, Meta, and Vistra. He's moving that capital into unloved cyclicals like Worldpool and Regional Banks. He is also doubling down on the China recovery despite the volatility.
He isn't afraid to be wrong for a few months if he thinks he's right for the next few years. It's a bold, concentrated approach. 7.4 billion managed with the agility of a day trader. That's why he's a legend. He doesn't just buy and hold. He actively manages the size of his bets based on the macro environment.
Whether it's semiconductors or washing machines, he's looking for the mispricing. That's a great place to wrap up our look at Appaloosa management. For Mike, I'm Sarah. Thanks for joining us for this deep dive into David Ter's portfolio. We'.
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