저자: ArunKumarAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
Patel Engineering은 수력발전 중심 건설사로 수주잔고 ₹15,000 crore 대비 시총이 낮고 PE 8.63 등 밸류에이션이 저평가 상태라고 설명. 창업주 사망 이후 불확실성으로 Vijay Kedia가 이탈했다가 재진입한 것으로 보이며, 기술적으로 ₹70~72 저항대 돌파 시 약 100% 상승 여지를 언급. 다만 건설 섹터의 정부 정책·발주 변동 리스크로 장기 강세 견해는 유보하고, 특정 종목 매수 권유는 하지 않음. 포트폴리오 배분은 재무 자문가와 상담하라고 권고.
다듬은 글
Friends, today we are going to talk about a company which has an order book of ₹15,000 crore but its market cap is only ₹300. I am talking about Patel Engineering. Let us discuss the technical fundamentals and business model of the company in this video. In the end I will give you my conclusion about what I am doing in which stocks right now.
Hello. My name is Arun Kumar Agarwal and I am a SEBI registered Research Analyst. First of all let us understand what Patel Engineering does ? Patel Engineering works in hydro power. She does other work as well. But 60% of the company's revenue comes from hydropower. Whatever other construction they have to do related to it, be it dam related or other road construction, they do all that too.
The company is doing very good work in construction and is the market leader in hydro power and our biggest investor, Mr. Vijay Kedia ji, also had stakes in it at one time, but suddenly after the death of the owner, everyone started wondering what would happen to its future, due to which Vijay Kedia ji also exited it and many investors also exited it.
Even I had a position. I also took exit in it once. Recently the company has made a very good strong promise in its conference call due to which I Think Mr. Vijay Kedia ji has also invested again and has taken 1% I Think stake. Before we discuss anything more about it, it is very important for us to look at the technical and fundamental aspects of the company.
So let's look at the technicals and fundamentals. The market cap of Patel Engineering is around Rs 3500 crore. Its pK is 8.63. It is very cheap. The industry has 18. Debt to equity equals new. Is 27. There is a lot of pledging but if there are government projects then they get finance. This is not a big concern against him.
Its book value is 77 which is very cheap. There is no forest either. Ideally the price of one share should be ₹45 ₹44. If we look at the 10-year PE, it is 14 and currently it is trading at 8.63, so it is very cheap as per that. The company is on continuous profit and loss. The company is on continuous growth in profit and loss.
Issues arise from time to time and here the owner also died in between. So all these problems keep happening. But the direction of the company is right. Continuous 5 year compound growth in shares is 21%. There is tremendous growth in profits also. I noticed an interesting thing here. Vijay Kedia ji had established his position here.
After that, after the death of the owner, he exited and made an entry again. So this could be an interesting development. The price which was ₹70, ₹72, this is a very good resistant zone. A breakout was about to happen from there and all this incident happened because of the owner and the share price corrected to ₹223 and at this price I think Vijay K G must have made an entry and there is a tremendous move from here with volume and I think if it goes back to ₹70 from here which is the resistance here and currently there is no such big problem in the company then there is a gain of 100% from here.
After that, it will be decided based on the fundamentals whether there will be a breakout from here or not. After looking at all these technical and fundamental aspects, you must have understood that as per the technical aspects, the company is currently showing a gain of 100% and the valuation of the company is also very cheap.
But even after that, I am not bullish on this stock for the long term. Its main reason is this sector. I have always been very confused about construction shares. The reason for this is that sometimes the government changes. Sometimes order books get cancelled. The position of the politicians and MLAs of that area changes.
Many times the government has a priority as to which segment to invest more money in. Like right now the government is spending a lot on defence, semiconductors and data centres. It is not that it is not working in construction but there has been a slight slowdown in construction. What happens due to this is that all the construction related companies have to travel.
Therefore, it is not the case that I am not that bullish on any construction company like Patel Engineering. However, your financial advisor will be able to tell you better what your exposure is in construction stocks. You will take the decision accordingly. Yes, but in the company in which the private player has more exposure.
The order book comes from them. I am bullish on that company. But this happens rarely because these are such big projects that they require government funding. However, your financial advisor will be able to tell you how much exposure you have to construction in your portfolio because you should not allocate too much to one sector.
You may already have some stocks. By the way, if you want analysis about any other stock or sector then write in the comment below and if you like such videos then subscribe to my channel to watch videos.
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